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  1. #51871
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Abstract

    The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet.

    With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions.

    Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.


    Study Predicts Antarctica Ice Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned

    http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589
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  2. #51872
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Global highlights: August 2015

    • The August average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.58°F (0.88°C) above the 20th century average—the warmest August on record, surpassing the previous record by +0.16°F (+0.09°C). This was the sixth month in 2015 that has broken its monthly temperature record (February, March, May, June, July, and August).
    • The August globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.05°F (1.14°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for August in the 1880–2015 record, besting the previous record set in 1998 by +0.23°F (+0.13°C). Record warmth was observed across much of South America and parts of Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia.
    • The August globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.40°F (0.78°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2015 2014 by +0.07°F (+0.04°C). Large portions of the seven seas (where temperature records are available) recorded much-warmer-than-average temperatures, with some locations across all oceans experiencing record warmth.
    • El Niño conditions were present across the tropical Pacific Ocean during August 2015. According to analysis by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16.
    • The average Arctic sea ice extent for August 2015 was 620,000 square miles (22.3 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth smallest August extent since records began in 1979, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA.
    • Antarctic sea ice extent during August 2015 was 30,000 square miles (0.5 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This marks a shift from recent years when Antarctic sea ice extent was record and near-record large. This is the first month since November 2011 that the Antarctic sea ice extent was below average.
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  3. #51873
    Breeal Breeal is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    2015 so far is >0.8C warmer than the 20th century global average temperature.


    Bill McKibben ‏@billmckibben 10h10 hours ago
    Here's how 2015 stacks up against all the other hot years of recent past. We're in literally uncharted territory
    It's most likely using the corrupt data you're so fond of posting....not that you've even posted a source.

    Meanwhile back in reality........ there has been no global warming in almost 2 decades.

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  4. #51874
    Breeal Breeal is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Abstract

    The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet.

    With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions.

    Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.


    Study Predicts Antarctica Ice Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned

    http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589
    Please no! I can't take another doomsday prediction!

    Meanwhile back in reality........ there has been no global warming in almost 2 decades.

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  5. #51875
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    NOAA estimate a 97% probability that 2015 will become the warmest year on record.

    (The North Atlantic "Cold Spot" that ruined our summer stands out annoyingly)

    Somewhat. Very. Extremely. How likely is it that 2015 will be the new warmest year on record?
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  6. #51876
    Breeal Breeal is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post

    Global highlights: August 2015

    • The August average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.58°F (0.88°C) above the 20th century average—the warmest August on record, surpassing the previous record by +0.16°F (+0.09°C). This was the sixth month in 2015 that has broken its monthly temperature record (February, March, May, June, July, and August).
    • The August globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.05°F (1.14°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for August in the 1880–2015 record, besting the previous record set in 1998 by +0.23°F (+0.13°C). Record warmth was observed across much of South America and parts of Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia.
    • The August globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.40°F (0.78°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2015 2014 by +0.07°F (+0.04°C). Large portions of the seven seas (where temperature records are available) recorded much-warmer-than-average temperatures, with some locations across all oceans experiencing record warmth.
    • El Niño conditions were present across the tropical Pacific Ocean during August 2015. According to analysis by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16.
    • The average Arctic sea ice extent for August 2015 was 620,000 square miles (22.3 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth smallest August extent since records began in 1979, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA.
    • Antarctic sea ice extent during August 2015 was 30,000 square miles (0.5 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This marks a shift from recent years when Antarctic sea ice extent was record and near-record large. This is the first month since November 2011 that the Antarctic sea ice extent was below average.

    You really struggle for material once you take away your precious falsified data!

    Meanwhile back in reality....... there has been no global warming in almost 2 decades.


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  7. #51877
    Breeal Breeal is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    (The North Atlantic "Cold Spot" that ruined our summer stands out annoyingly)

    Somewhat. Very. Extremely. How likely is it that 2015 will be the new warmest year on record?
    But in reality if you take away NOAA's ADJUSTED data it's not the warmest year at all, BTW, neither was last year.

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  8. #51878
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    A motorist takes a wild drive to escape an encroaching fire ..


    AUDIE CORNISH, NPR HOST:

    It's almost impossible to overstate the severity of this year's wildfire season in California. There have been 1,500 more fires this year than last, and three major fires continue to burn today. As one fire official put it, we don't see an end to the fire season in the months to come.


    California Officials Warn Of No Swift End To Severe Fire Season : NPR

    “..people are not prepared for this kind of catastrophe.” | Climate Denial Crock of the Week
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  9. #51879
    Trainwreck Trainwreck is offline

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    The cozy little word of Climate Alarmism:


    - Bishop Hill blog - Naughty Slingo


    The rank Alarmist chief scientist at the UK Met Office has found a shiny new job. For her daughter.

    No, it didn't exist before.
    No, they didn't bother to tell anyone it was available.
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  10. #51880
    Steve Case Steve Case is offline
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    I wrote:
    I look at your green line chart above, and I see an acceleration
    of exactly ZERO.


    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Maybe a eyetest? They have such things
    in the US, I believe?

    Maybe a read of the post would help, instead of running away
    screaming when you see contrary evidence.
    From David Appell's website he tells us:

    The second method, calculating the change in the linear slope
    of the last 20-year's worth of data (20 being picked arbitrarily)
    finds an acceleration of 0.021 mm/yr2. (Sorry, I haven't calculated
    its uncertainty.)



    I duplicated David Appell's method with Colorado University’s
    data and I get 0.028 mm/yr² An increase of 0.007 mm/yr² so you
    should like that even better (-:

    Acceleration is found with the formula:

                a=(v final - v initial)/(t final - t initial)

    What David Appell doesn't tell you is that he's figuring acceleration
    with a value for "t" of just 2.4 years. If you use the entire 22
    years of data and figure acceleration as the slope for the last 11
    years minus the slope for the first 11 years and divide by a value
    for t of 22-11 = 11 it comes out to a minus -0.05 mm/yr². Even if
    you cheat and use the rate for first 11 years divided by the rate
    for the entire 22 year period it still comes out negative.

    Appell says (Sorry, I haven't calculated its uncertainty.) There's
    a reason for that you know. He damn well could have calculated the
    uncertainty and if he did you would see how ridiculous his method
    of using a short 2.4 year value for t is.

    As they say, figures don't lie, but liars figure.
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