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  1. #35891
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Meanwhile, in another part of the planet ... Drought-hit California unable to supply state water

    Farmers said the announcement was "a terrible blow"

    California's water agency has announced it may for the first time be unable to deliver water to local agencies, amid a worsening drought.



    BBC News - Drought-hit California unable to supply state water
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  2. #35892
    Steve Case Steve Case is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Earthling View Post
    The main point, is that Willis knows as well as
    anyone else that sea level rise hasn't accelerated.

    He's mimicking Dr David Viner, of the 'no more snow' fame.

    ...
    The main point is that Dr. Willis knows the truth
    and then proceeds to lie about it. Who he mimics
    doesn't matter.
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  3. #35893
    Volatire Volatire is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    A weather station with records going back nearly 250 years is a rarity, and in fact there is only one in the world.

    It is in Oxford, England.

    And guess what?

    The deluge that has engulfed southern and central England in recent weeks is the worst winter downpour in almost 250 years, according to figures from the world's longest-running weather station.


    January was England's wettest winter month in almost 250 years | UK news | The Observer

    It's wetter!
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  4. #35894
    Volatire Volatire is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Farmers said the announcement was "a terrible blow"

    California's water agency has announced it may for the first time be unable to deliver water to local agencies, amid a worsening drought.



    BBC News - Drought-hit California unable to supply state water
    It's drier!
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  5. #35895
    Steve Case Steve Case is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Cherry picking? Where was this brave truth teller when the
    "No warming since 1998" broadcast was a blatant cherry-pick?
    The only "Cherry Pick" about the temperature trend
    since 1998 is the choice of words (No warming...) and choice
    of data base (UAH). If HADCRUT4 were used, it comes out that
    the temperatures have flat lined since November of 2000.


    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    The brave truth-teller kept his mouth shut rather than annoy
    his partners in confusion.
    I have mostly kept my mouth shut about what the flat line
    in the trend means. I could predict that the upward trend
    since 1850 will resume or that a downward cycle similar to
    what occurred after 1944 will happen. But since I really
    don't know, and neither do you, I don't blab about what
    global warming has done or will do.


    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    BTW, have you checked that there is a significant difference
    for the effect you claim in your polynomials? By experience,
    you are a dabbler who can use Excel, but is ignorant of statistics.
    The 2nd order polynomial doesn't tell you what the acceleration is,
    but it does show you if it's positive or negative. And over the
    last twenty years it's negative. For practical purposes, it's a
    straight line not gangbusters to use Dr. Willis's "scientific" term.


    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    If I just said "Sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm/yr",
    what comeback would you have? Is that statement true or not?
    True? There's so much lying about sea level it is very difficult
    to know the truth. But 3 mm/yr is the common value used, so I
    usually use it. But if you want to dissect where that term comes
    from and how it's arrived it, you get into the world of data editing,
    correcting, deletions, fudging, and in general the Orwellian rewriting
    of historical facts.


    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Here is the sea level rise as estimated by the European agency AVISO::
    You don't even need a 2nd order polynomial to see that the plot is
    arcing over. The middle section is over the linear trend line and
    the two ends droop below.

    Indeed, as I pointed out, the first decade is 3.5 mm/yr and the
    second comes out to only 2.8 mm/yr. And if you remove the 0.3 mm/yr
    of GIA that Colorado University adds in order to make their chart
    a proxy for ocean volume not sea level, it's only 2.5 mm/yr for these
    last ten years. If you go back in history and investigate the changes
    made to the data and consider the fact that they seem to have no problem
    with making adjustments only in favor of their agenda, the rate this
    past decade may be as little as 1.9 mm/yr.

    So to get back to what's true, I wind up having to say that it MAY be
    as little as 1.9 mm/yr. So what's true? I know I'm being lied to,
    that's what's true!
    Last edited by Steve Case; 2nd February 2014 at 02:01 PM. Reason: that ==> that's
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  6. #35896
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Farmers said the announcement was "a terrible blow"

    California's water agency has announced it may for the first time be unable to deliver water to local agencies, amid a worsening drought.



    BBC News - Drought-hit California unable to supply state water
    2013 was the driest year in recorded history in California. Bad for shale gas fracking where millions of gallons of water are being used and poisoned...
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  7. #35897
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Cherry picking? Where was this brave truth teller when the "No warming since 1998" broadcast was a blatant cherry-pick? The brave truth-teller kept his mouth shut rather than annoy his partners in confusion.

    BTW, have you checked that there is a significant difference for the effect you claim in your polynomials? By experience, you are a dabbler who can use Excel, but is ignorant of statistics.

    If I just said "Sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm/yr", what comeback would you have? Is that statement true or not?

    Here is the sea level rise as estimated by the European agency AVISO::


    Here some more graphs from different scientific bodies:


    (NASA => Sea Level Has Risen Almost Six Centimeters Since 1995)


    (University of Colorado)


    (Gregory et al in Journal of Climate)

    Sea level rise has been accelerating! Anything else would contradict simple laws of physics.


    Rate of global sea-level rise based on the data of Church & White (2006), and global mean temperature data of GISS, both smoothed. The satellite-derived rate of sea-level rise of 3.2 ± 0.5 mm/yr is also shown. The strong similarity of these two curves is at the core of the semi-empirical models of sea-level rise. Graph adapted from Rahmstorf (2007).

    => Sea-level rise: Where we stand at the start of 2013

    Are these all liars? Hardly. It sounds like some real paranoia when Steve thinks he's paying tax money for liars
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  8. #35898
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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    SkS Weekly News Roundup #5, 1 February 2014:

    • A change in the legal climate
    • Climate and vaccine deniers are the same: beyond persuasion
    • Foundations band together to get rid of fossil-fuel investments
    • Green groups: Obama not doing enough on climate
    • Human cause of global warming is near certainty
    • Industry groups plan "unified strategy" against EPA carbon pollution rules
    • IPCC hearing brings UK closer to US polarisation
    • It may be cold today, but the climate is heating up
    • Prominent scientist suing climate change deniers for libel
    • Teenage polar explorer on quest to raise climate change awareness
    • The communication of uncertainty is hindering climate change action
    • UK climate change spend almost halved under Owen Paterson
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  9. #35899
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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    GLOBAL WARMING AT 4 HIROSHIMA ATOMIC BOMBS PER SECOND

    Accumulating Heat

    The earth has warmed rapidly over the past century due mainly to human activity, and especially over the past few decades. The increased greenhouse effect has warmed the land and air and melted ice, but most of it (about 90%) has gone into heating the oceans. Several Skeptical Science contributors worked together to publish a scientific paper1 which combined the land, air, ice, and ocean warming data. It found that for recent decades the earth has been heating at a rate of 250 trillion Joules per second.

    “Joules per second” is a difficult unit of measure to appreciate, and is especially foreign to people who are unfamiliar with science. This widget attempts to put that heating into terms that are easier to visualize. 250 trillion Joules per second is equivalent to:

    • Detonating four Hiroshima atomic bombs per second
    • Experiencing two Hurricane Sandys per second
    • Enduring four 6.0 Richter scale earthquakes per second
    • Being struck by 500,000 lightning bolts per second
    • Exploding more than eight Big Ben towers, with every inch packed full of dynamite, per second
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  10. #35900
    oneshotleft oneshotleft is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SirCharles View Post
    GLOBAL WARMING AT 4 HIROSHIMA ATOMIC BOMBS PER SECOND

    Accumulating Heat

    The earth has warmed rapidly over the past century due mainly to human activity, and especially over the past few decades. The increased greenhouse effect has warmed the land and air and melted ice, but most of it (about 90%) has gone into heating the oceans. Several Skeptical Science contributors worked together to publish a scientific paper1 which combined the land, air, ice, and ocean warming data. It found that for recent decades the earth has been heating at a rate of 250 trillion Joules per second.

    “Joules per second” is a difficult unit of measure to appreciate, and is especially foreign to people who are unfamiliar with science. This widget attempts to put that heating into terms that are easier to visualize. 250 trillion Joules per second is equivalent to:

    • Detonating four Hiroshima atomic bombs per second
    • Experiencing two Hurricane Sandys per second
    • Enduring four 6.0 Richter scale earthquakes per second
    • Being struck by 500,000 lightning bolts per second
    • Exploding more than eight Big Ben towers, with every inch packed full of dynamite, per second
    ^ using a stupid imaginary metric intend to frighten the weak of mind.

    It may as well read "1000 HIROSHIMA ATOMIC BOMBS PER SECOND" still means nothing.
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