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  1. #33511
    Earthling Earthling is offline
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    I await the update for 2100 of a rise in global temperature of 16 Centigrade.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Cowtan View Post
    But the reality is that 16 years is too short a period to draw a reliable conclusion.
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  2. #33512
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Haiyan got misreported in some places (e.g. Associated Press) as a Category 4, but blogger Coby has been on the case.

    A Category 5 means the winds were strong enough to knock the wooden buildings and leave the masonry ones standing. Like this (aftermath of Haiyan):


    The confusion seems to have arisen over different meanings of "sustained" and "gusts". For the Saffir-Simpson scale, "sustained" means for 1 minute, and Haiyan falls well within its Category 5 range.

    AP Misreports Haiyan as Category 4 – A Few Things Ill Considered
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  3. #33513
    oneshotleft oneshotleft is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post

    After all the undeserving attention given to the fake "pause in global warming", I have yet to see this paper reported by major media outlets (other than the Guardian).
    If they had infilled Data with out the " presto-chango no pause-o" perhaps it would have some merit, the MM don't wanna touch this smelly turd.
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  4. #33514
    oneshotleft oneshotleft is offline

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  5. #33515
    Volatire Volatire is offline
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    Western climo-loons wish to deny poor people access to cheap fossil fuels. And that includes energy intensive materials such as concrete and steel, which are the best defense against tropical storms.

    Fossil fuels are a critical part of taking people out of poverty. And poverty is what makes people vulnerable to disease, natural disasters, oppression etc.
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  6. #33516
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
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    Would it be worth reading this thread from the start?
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  7. #33517
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShoutingIsLeadership View Post
    Would it be worth reading this thread from the start?
    If you have a few weeks to spare, yes, of course.

    You could just read my posts, or even just my 2013 posts, when I just stopping playing keyboard-tennis with people who were not really listening. Even then, there would be lots and lots of repetition.

    Seriously, if you were indeed to take time, start at the end and go backwards - a lot more is known now about climate change than was known when the OP was written 5 years ago. And the new evidence in total has been confirmatory and added to the detail.
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  8. #33518
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    More not-so-good news ...

    Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceans 'acid trip'


    The world's oceans are becoming acidic at an "unprecedented rate" and may be souring more rapidly than at any time in the past 300 million years.

    In their strongest statement yet on this issue, scientists say acidification could increase by 170% by 2100.

    They say that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions.

    The researchers conclude that human emissions of CO2 are clearly to blame.


    BBC News - Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceans 'acid trip'
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  9. #33519
    Agnotologist Agnotologist is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceans 'acid trip'


    The world's oceans are becoming acidic at an "unprecedented rate" and may be souring more rapidly than at any time in the past 300 million years.

    In their strongest statement yet on this issue, scientists say acidification could increase by 170% by 2100.

    They say that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions.

    The researchers conclude that human emissions of CO2 are clearly to blame.


    BBC News - Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceans 'acid trip'
    It should be emphasised that the 30% loss is from acidification only. The warming of the waters will increase that loss greatly.
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  10. #33520
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Great play was made by Matt Ridley of Richard Tol's work, who claimed it "proved" we will all be in clover, on the pig's back etc etc once temperature rises. Hooray for Matt Ridley!!!

    The original paper is by Richard Tol and he did make a typo and got one of his figures in the table wrong. The Hope(2000) paper should be -0.9, not 0.9 in the second last line (link below). Well, never mind,

    Even more interesting are the "Maximum" and "Minimum" columns and the "Worst-Off" and "Best-Off" regions.


    The amber lines is for Tol's chart, I added in the Best Cases and Worst Cases for the 14 papers he examined.

    What is striking is that for the Worst Case Regions, climate change works out badly at all temperature rises. In general, these are Africa and the Developing World:

    Africa 5
    Asia (w/o China) 2
    South America 2
    China 1
    Developing countries 1

    The best case regions are:

    Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union 8
    Western Europe 3
    South Asia 1

    So this paper seems to be saying that for all scenarios, climate change will be GOOD for the Northern Hemisphere of the latitude of Southern Russia northwards (but only up to about 1.5C rise), and be BAD for the Developing Counties and the BRICS (Brazil, India, China, South Africa) at all temperature rises.

    That will be the moral dilemma of climate change, and the practical one also. If, for example, climate change has a significant negative impact on the growth of the BRICS, then where is 21th century global economic growth to come from?

    And remember also - some 75% to 80% of the world's population will live in those "Worst Case Regions" in the 21st century.

    Finally, the Tol paper has been over-interpreted, and I could be accused of the same here. But it does contain some alarming indicators. Mr Ridley might have been less blinded by irrational optimism if he had paid attention.

    http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/104.../584378270.pdf

    Quick correction to Tol (2009) | Wotts Up With That Blog

    Incidentally, the above conclusions agree with this Maplecroft map of the worst affected areas of climate change.

    Climate change Vulnerability:


    The sixth annual release of Maplecroft’s Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas reveals that 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme risks’ from the impacts of climate change by the year 2025 – a 50% increase on current levels and more than double since the company began researching the issue in 2008.

    According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), which forms a central part of the Atlas, this includes 67 countries whose estimated combined output of $44 trillion will come under increasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and extreme climate-related events, such as severe storms, flooding or drought.

    The economic impacts of climate change will be most keenly felt by

    1. Bangladesh (1st and most at risk),
    2. Guinea-Bissau (2nd),
    3. Sierra Leone (3rd), Haiti (4th),
    4. South Sudan (5th),
    5. Nigeria (6th),
    6. DR Congo (7th),
    7. Cambodia (8th),
    8. Philippines (9th)
    9. Ethiopia (10th),


    which make up the 10 most at risk countries out of the 193 rated by the CCVI.

    However, other important growth markets at risk include:
    • India (20th),
    • Pakistan (24th)
    • Viet Nam (26th) in the ‘extreme risk’ category, in addition to
    • Indonesia (38th),
    • Thailand (45th),
    • Kenya (56th) and, most significantly,
    • China (61st), all classified at ‘high risk.’


    Maplecroft | New analysis

    If we benefit from climate change (as we may, temporarily), what are our obligations to those countries who are going to experience severe adversity because of it?

    War and nuclear holocaust were the great moral issues of the 20th century. Climate change may be the moral issue of this one.
    Note in the map above how the Philippines are vulnerable to climate change. It comes in at number 8 of teh high risk states.

    The late typhoon emphasises this. Even if the higher wind speed was not caused by global warming, a large part of the sea level rise and the resulting storm surge was. Clearly, this state of many, many islands is going to have to invest heavily in disaster mitigation - money it can ill afford.
    Last edited by owedtojoy; 15th November 2013 at 10:16 PM.
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