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  1. #21231
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Case View Post
    You guys are trying to tell us you know the outcome of a Chess
    game after the first two moves.

    After I posted that I thought of the flaws in the analogy but
    this isn't it:


    And the late Bobby Fischer couldn't predict how the game would
    go after the first move either.

    You could perhaps predict who would win. If I played Fischer,
    bet on Fischer. You don't need to have played 100 games to
    know that. But you won't know any details of the win.

    You guys are telling me you know where it will rain and where it
    won't 100 years from now. You're claiming you know the general
    weather patterns for that date, but you guys can't even predict
    La Nia and El Nio years.
    Never heard of Deep Blue, then? Deep Blue (chess computer) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Deep Blue beat Kasparov, and all it was was a machine programmed by software engineers and mathematicians.

    La Nina and El Nino years cannot be predicted to the exact year, but the number within a certain period can be estimated fairly reliably. Better prediction would be desirable, and may come in time.
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  2. #21232
    Trainwreck Trainwreck is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post

    Funny, it is absolutely obvious that you are not. A scientist usually cites a few sources for sweeping statements like yours.
    A selection of my "sweeping statements":

    Broeker predicted temperatures would rise by 0.8 degrees in the 30 years to 2010.
    In his prediction Broecker assumed climate sensitivity was 2.4 degrees for doubling of CO2
    Actual temperature increase over the 30 years to 2010 was 0.5 degrees.

    You micro analysis:

    "97% of climate experts agree...."


    There must be a good few confused and bewildered lurking readers here. I know I certainly am.





    But thanks again for that poll result. The headline should of course read:


    75 out of 10,000 academics in earth science polled agreed that CO2 has had some (even miniscue) effect on climate.


    Nice.
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  3. #21233
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by brine View Post


    You don't understand the difference between short-term data and a long-term trend. Or, rather, you do, but you are pretending you don't when it suits you.

    Broecker's blue line is a long-term trend. The red line is based on observations and is influenced by both the long-term trend and short-term fluctuations. If we had been having the same discussion in 1991 then the red line would be above the blue line and, based on your logic, you'd be bound to say that Broecker underestimated CO2 sensitivity. But would you have siad that? No, of course not, you'd be arguing that it's just a short-term fluctuation.

    When short-term data shows a very large warming in a single year, such as 1991, you'd say it is only short-term observed data (and you'd be right, and I'd say the same thing). When short-term data shows cooling, you say it disproves a long-term trend (and suddenly you are not interested in being right any more). This is why people like you are cherry pickers.

    The thing is that people like you can only be convinced if we have a time machine, go to the year 2200 and measure the temperature. You are not interested in scientific process at all, only observed data - and only when it suits you.

    I'm a marine geologist, I sometimes reconstruct ocean temperature changes from tens of thousands of years ago. There were no satellites then, or thermometers. So we have to rely on proxies and science. Similarly, our satellites cannot yet tell us future temperature, because we have not invented time machines yet. So we have to rely on science and our understanding of long-term trends.

    I mean really, people like you have to be consistent and also not trust weather reports. If the weather report says 13 mm of rain will fall tomorrow, but only 9 mm of rain falls tomorrow, do you never trust a single weather report again and be convinced that Met Eireann has a hidden agenda to overestimate rain? Maybe they are in cahoots with umbrella producers...
    Broecker was amazingly accurate for his day. Hats off.

    Broecker anticipated the actual increase in CO2 very closely, predicting 373 ppm in 2000 and 403 ppm in 2010 (actual values were 369 and 390 ppm, respectively).
    Broecker also used an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3C for doubled CO2; however, his model's transient climate sensitivity worked out to be 2.4C for doubled CO2. Current climate models put equilibrium sensitivty at 1.5 times transient sensitivty, so Broecker effectively underestimated the thermal lag of the climate system, and the equilibrium sensitivity in his calculations was approximately equivalent to 3.6C for doubled CO2 - a bit higher than today's best estimates of 2C transient sensitivity, 3C equilibrium sensitivity.
    Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Wallace Broecker
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  4. #21234
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trainwreck View Post

    75 out of 10,000 academics in earth science polled agreed that CO2 has had some (even miniscue) effect on climate.


    Nice.
    I should have explicitly cited the PNAS paper by Anderegg et al, which surveyed 1,373 climate researchers.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...87107.abstract

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers
    Attempts to find denialist scientists have completely failed, beyond the usual handful of suspects. You are left with cranks, politicians, media spin doctors, college dropouts, journalists and publicists.

    Go to the website of the American Geophysical Union Fall meeting, and fine me a single presentation, lecture or poster session out of hundreds that presented your brand of pseudo-ecience.

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  5. #21235
    brine brine is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck
    Come on, don't be obtuse.

    The paper contains a table. In that table is a predicted temperature anomally for 1970, 1980, 1990 etc. up to 2010. The increase over the 30 years to 2010 is there is black and white. It is 0.8 dregrees. The actual increase measured over that time is 0.5 (using HADCRUT3)
    Yes, 0.8 is the value for 2010 according to the blue line in the figure I showed. Now go back and read my post again, maybe it won't appear as obtuse to you now.

    And why do you cite HadCRUT? I thought you didn't believe those guys because of the "climate gate" spoof?
    Last edited by brine; 7th February 2013 at 04:38 PM.
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  6. #21236
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by brine View Post
    Yes, 0.8 is the value for 2010 according to the blue line in the figure I showed. Now go back and read my post again, maybe it won't appear as obtuse to you now.

    And why do you cite HadCRUT? I thought you didn't believe those guys because of the "climate gate" spoof?
    HADCRUT is fine because its Thursday and he is wearing a red sweater.

    Every other day, it's UAH, unless he had a blue sweater. Then they are all liars.
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  7. #21237
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    By accident (because I rarely read it) I came across a definition on Watts UP With That of the position usually know as Lukewarmer. It is by Steve Mosher.

    Ok,

    back in 2007 or 2008 we did a poll on Climate audit asking the question
    How much of the warming we see today is due to GHG.
    There was a distinct group of us that said ‘some, but not all ” heck even Willis said 30%

    We called ourselves Lukewarmers.

    Over the years a few of us have worked to define what we mean by Lukewarmer and what defines the position.

    1. Acceptance of radiative physics.
    2. Acceptance of a lower bound to sensitivity. basically the no feedback estimate is 1.2C per
    doubling. We think that the true sensitivity will be above 1.
    3. over/under line. The over under line is 3C. That is, if offered a bet that the climate sensitivity
    is either ‘between 1 and 3 or over 3, we take the under bet.

    ballpark:
    [Estimate] [Probability]
    .....< 1.2 5%
    1.2 to 3 50%
    3 to 4.5 45%
    .....4.5+ 5%

    So if you believe that GHG can warm the planet and not cool it, and you think that the mean estimate of the IPCC of 3.2 is more likely high than low, then you are a lukewarmer. But you have to drop the crazy refusals over radiative physics.

    Note: lukewarmers dont have to attack the surface record, its probably correct to within .2C
    We also dont have to slam models, or invent kook theories about the sun.
    Everything we believe is well within the consensus and we think that you can change the consensus from inside the tent rather than attacking everything and everyone. Focus on sensitivity, work to refine that. You see there is a debate in climate science, its a debate about sensitivity. When folks start putting their effort into that ( instead of frittering away time on tangents) then you will see changes.
    Scientists like Richard Tol, Roger Pielke Jnr, Judith Curry as usually considered as "Lukewarmers" because they avoid the zany antics of the deniers.

    BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC | Watts Up With That?

    Are deniers becoming Lukewarmers, or are Lukewarmers rejoining the main stream? I can see little or nothing to argue with in Mosher's comments. But the fact is that further refinement of climate sensitivity is probably not achievable in the short term. The current GISS model uses 2.4 - 2.7, and I have no problem with that.
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  8. #21238
    Agnotologist Agnotologist is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trainwreck View Post
    A quick search shows that in Australia it is unpopular as a bacon at a bar mitzva. What is your point?


    And what of the relative price versus income effects on fossil fuel consumption of a policy that is "revenue neutral"?
    The reason for public opposition in Australia is the same as in the US and a couple of other that are run by dittoheads. Money and propaganda of the deniers and their owned media.

    Australians have been peppered with the untruth that their Tax (it is not really a true tax in Australia) is too high by international standards. It is not and this year, for one, British Colimbia's tax will be incresing again to one that is substantially higher than the Australian price.
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  9. #21239
    Agnotologist Agnotologist is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trainwreck View Post
    A selection of my "sweeping statements":

    Broeker predicted temperatures would rise by 0.8 degrees in the 30 years to 2010.
    In his prediction Broecker assumed climate sensitivity was 2.4 degrees for doubling of CO2
    Actual temperature increase over the 30 years to 2010 was 0.5 degrees.

    You micro analysis:

    "97% of climate experts agree...."


    There must be a good few confused and bewildered lurking readers here. I know I certainly am.





    But thanks again for that poll result. The headline should of course read:


    75 out of 10,000 academics in earth science polled agreed that CO2 has had some (even miniscue) effect on climate.


    Nice.
    Do you expect to be accorded any credibility here when you continue to lie about the surveys that show 97/98% of climate experts agree with Agw?

    It has been shown on this forum several times t6hat there have been three surveys - all with correct methodology that prove that figure. And that does not include Oreskes survey.

    Yet, you repeat that lie.
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  10. #21240
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    The approximate formula for the link between temperature change and CO2 concentration is

    Delta-T = (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity for CO2) x Ln[(New Conc. CO2)/(Starting Conc CO2)]/Ln(2)

    The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity for CO2 is the temperature change for a doubling of CO2, assuming that temperature has come into equilibrium (i.e. for the planet, Heat Out at the top of the Atmosphere = Heat In from the Sun).

    Short term, when there is no equilibrium (and there isn't!), scientists use the Transient Climate Response (TCR), which can be half or two-thirds of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.

    Accurate CO2 concentrations began to be measured from 1959, so if we charted the annual temperature change (additive Delta) and plotted it against Ln(Changes in CO2 Conc.)/Ln(2), we should get a rough straight line with a slope (approximately) equal to the Transient Climate Response.

    For example, the GISS anomaly in 1959 was 0.0275 and the CO2 concentration was 315.97ppm. In 1969, the GISS anomaly in was 0.0675 and the CO2 concentration was 324.62ppm. So we plot 0.0675-0.0275 on the y-axis, and ln(324.62/315.97)/ln(2) on the x-axis.

    Running through every year we have a plot of the Delta-T's against the Ln-values. I did this for GISS, HADCRUT4 and UAH (since 1979 only). There were the results.
    GISS
    HADCRUT4
    UAH

    To find the ECS from the TCR you can multiply the slopes of the lines by 2 or by 1.5, or even by 1.25. IMHO, based on this fairly crude analysis, climate sensitivity is unlikely to be less than 2. For example, there are feedbacks that are only kicking in now - like loss of ice & snow albedo (reflectivity) and release of CH4 from the Arctic tundra. By rights, we should be using CO2e - "CO2 equivalents" instead of CO2 to include other greenhouse gases and soot.

    There are other weaknesses in the analysis of course - no account for natural variability (but that usually evens out over time), no account for cooling aerosols (which are a separate forcing), and no account for water vapour feedbacks/ clouds. I will leave that to climate scientists, whose values for Climate Sensitivity are turning up between 1.5 and 4.5, but generally converging on 2.5 to 3C.

    However, the main takeaways are:

    - Climate Sensitivity unlikely to be less than 2
    - Current temperature change is in line with what is expected from the theory (even when applied simply)
    Last edited by owedtojoy; 7th February 2013 at 08:47 PM.
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