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  1. #11441
    Destiny's Soldier Destiny's Soldier is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    The prediction for 2011 was another year in the top 10 warmest. The same prediction is made for 2012.

    That prediction was true for 2011.

    McClean's prediction was that the 2011 annual average would fall to the level of 1960.

    That prediction was wildly false, but, like the cretinous followers of an end-of-the-world prophisier, denialists will still claim it is "true".

    Only the blindest and most stupid climate science denier (or perhaps the most hopeful) would construe a "prediction" over 50% incorrect as being "accurate"

    You are not even comparing like with like - McClean's prediction was for an annual average. the UAH chart shows monthly averages.

    The hopelessness and incoherence of climate science denialism grows by the day and the hour.
    You have a habit of lashing out aggressively when someone counters your propaganda. I'm following the slope of the graph and by the end of Feb 2012, McLean may be right.

    By the way, have you learned to correctly interpret IR Spectra yet or are you going to continue to make a fool of yourself?
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  2. #11442
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Destiny's Soldier View Post
    You have a habit of lashing out aggressively when someone counters your propaganda. I'm following the slope of the graph and by the end of Feb 2012, McLean may be right.

    By the way, have you learned to correctly interpret IR Spectra yet or are you going to continue to make a fool of yourself?
    If you bothered to read the material, you would realise that the McClean prediction was for LAST YEAR, and has ALREADY been proven to be wildly wrong.

    If you do not know the difference between 2011 and 2012, then trying to explain radiation theory to you is clearly a lost cause. It is like trying to explain evolution to the densest of creationist pseudo-scientists.
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  3. #11443
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    A study on 2000 years of climate history in North America based on pollen studies.

    It shows what medieval warm period existed back then was cooler than today.



    The climate of North America during the past 2000years reconstructed from pollen data 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.010 : Global and Planetary Change | ScienceDirect.com

    2000 Years of Climate Reconstructed from Pollen
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  4. #11444
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by kront999 View Post
    ....and more reading for you SirCharles


    Karin Labitzke Institute of Meteorology: 2000s
    Yes, Nullius in Verba. => Winter predictions 2011/2012.
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  5. #11445
    SirCharles SirCharles is offline
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  6. #11446
    kront999 kront999 is offline
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    Nature Geosciences
    PUBLISHED ONLINE: 23 OCTOBER 2011 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1296

    Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change

    David W. J. Thompson1*, Susan Solomon2,3, Paul J. Kushner4, Matthew H. England5, Kevin M. Grise1 and David J. Karoly6

    Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have driven and will continue to drive widespread climate change at the Earth’s surface. But surface climate change is not limited to the effects of increasing atmospheric green¬house gas concentrations. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone-depleting gases also lead to marked changes in surface climate, through the radiative and dynamical effects of the Antarctic ozone hole. The influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on surface cli¬mate is most pronounced during the austral summer season and strongly resembles the most prominent pattern of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability, the Southern Annular Mode. The influence of the ozone hole on the Southern Annular Mode has led to a range of significant summertime surface climate changes not only over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, but also over New Zealand, Patagonia and southern regions of Australia. Surface climate change as far equatorward as the sub¬tropical Southern Hemisphere may have also been affected by the ozone hole. Over the next few decades, recovery of the ozone hole and increases in greenhouse gases are expected to have significant but opposing effects on the Southern Annular Mode and its attendant climate impacts during summer.
    Last edited by kront999; 14th February 2012 at 10:20 AM.
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  7. #11447
    kront999 kront999 is offline
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    Largest ever ozone hole observed in 2006.

    NASA - NASA and NOAA Announce Antarctic Ozone Hole Is a Record Breaker


    Erica Hupp/Dwayne Brown
    Headquarters, Washington
    202-358-1237/1726

    Anatta
    NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colo.
    303-497-6288



    Oct. 19, 2006


    RELEASE : 06-338



    NASA and NOAA Announce Antarctic Ozone Hole Is a Record Breaker



    NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists report this year's ozone hole in the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere has broken records for area and depth.

    The ozone layer acts to protect life on Earth by blocking harmful ultraviolet rays from the sun. The "ozone hole" is a severe depletion of the ozone layer high above Antarctica. It is primarily caused by human-produced compounds that release chlorine and bromine gases in the stratosphere.

    "From September 21 to 30, the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles," said Paul Newman, atmospheric scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. If the stratospheric weather conditions had been normal, the ozone hole would be expected to reach a size of about 8.9 to 9.3 million square miles, about the surface area of North America.

    The Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA's Aura satellite measures the total amount of ozone from the ground to the upper atmosphere over the entire Antarctic continent. This instrument observed a low value of 85 Dobson Units (DU) on Oct. 8, in a region over the East Antarctic ice sheet. Dobson Units are a measure of ozone amounts above a fixed point in the atmosphere. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument was developed by the Netherlands' Agency for Aerospace Programs, Delft, The Netherlands, and the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.

    Scientists from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., use balloon-borne instruments to measure ozone directly over the South Pole. By Oct. 9, the total column ozone had plunged to 93 DU from approximately 300 DU in mid-July. More importantly, nearly all of the ozone in the layer between eight and 13 miles above the Earth's surface had been destroyed. In this critical layer, the instrument measured a record low of only 1.2 DU., having rapidly plunged from an average non-hole reading of 125 DU in July and August.

    "These numbers mean the ozone is virtually gone in this layer of the atmosphere," said David Hofmann, director of the Global Monitoring Division at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. "The depleted layer has an unusual vertical extent this year, so it appears that the 2006 ozone hole will go down as a record-setter."

    Observations by Aura's Microwave Limb Sounder show extremely high levels of ozone destroying chlorine chemicals in the lower stratosphere (approximately 12.4 miles high). These high chlorine values covered the entire Antarctic region in mid to late September. The high chlorine levels were accompanied by extremely low values of ozone.

    The temperature of the Antarctic stratosphere causes the severity of the ozone hole to vary from year to year. Colder than average temperatures result in larger and deeper ozone holes, while warmer temperatures lead to smaller ones. The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provided analyses of satellite and balloon stratospheric temperature observations. The temperature readings from NOAA satellites and balloons during late-September 2006 showed the lower stratosphere at the rim of Antarctica was approximately nine degrees Fahrenheit colder than average, increasing the size of this year's ozone hole by 1.2 to 1.5 million square miles.

    The Antarctic stratosphere warms by the return of sunlight at the end of the polar winter and by large-scale weather systems (planetary-scale waves) that form in the troposphere and move upward into the stratosphere. During the 2006 Antarctic winter and spring, these planetary-scale wave systems were relatively weak, causing the stratosphere to be colder than average.

    As a result of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) peaked around 1995 and are decreasing in both the troposphere and stratosphere. It is estimated these gases reached peak levels in the Antarctica stratosphere in 2001. However, these ozone-depleting substances typically have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere (more than 40 years).

    As a result of this slow decline, the ozone hole is estimated to annually very slowly decrease in area by about 0.1 to 0.2 percent for the next five to 10 years. This slow decrease is masked by large year-to-year variations caused by Antarctic stratosphere weather fluctuations.

    The recently completed 2006 World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion concluded the ozone hole recovery would be masked by annual variability for the near future and the ozone hole would fully recover in approximately 2065.

    "We now have the largest ozone hole on record," said Craig Long of NCEP. As the sun rises higher in the sky during October and November, this unusually large and persistent area may allow much more ultraviolet light than usual to reach Earth's surface in the southern latitudes. For information and images about NASA's ozone research, visit:
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  8. #11448
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by kront999 View Post
    It is useful of you to draw attention to the ozone hole, which gave rise to one of the major success stories in international co-operation.

    Thanks to the Montreal Protocol of 1989, and its several revisions, ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere has been halted, and it is expected the hole will have closed by mid-century. The successful plan to phase out CFCs has been hailed as the "most successful international agreement of all time".

    The success of this effort shows that it should be possible to do the same with CO2 emissions. The annual average area of the ozone hole trend now shows a downward slope from its 2006 peak.

    Ozone Hole Watch: Annual Antarctic ozone statistics
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  9. #11449
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Nice post by John Nielsen-Gammon on CO2.

    Three simple facts about CO2:

    • Fact #1: A small concentration of CO2 is a big deal.
      Only a few compounds produce that “heat” sensation in the taste buds. The one that does it for hot peppers is called capsaicin. Most people can easily detect one drop of capsaicin in a glass of water. If you put enough capsaicin in a glass of water to match the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (one molecule of capsaicin for every 2600 molecules of water), it tastes like you’re drinking a liquefied jalapeño pepper straight up.
    • Fact #2: The fraction of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere that were produced by man is different from the fraction of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere that are there because of man.
      Relatively few of the CO2 molecules emitted by the burning of fossil fuels remain in the atmosphere. Most have been taken up by plants or absorbed in the ocean.

      But for every two man-produced molecules of CO2 that have been taken up by plants or absorbed in the ocean, there’s one molecule of natural CO2 that would have been taken up or absorbed, except that its place was filled by a man-produced molecule of CO2. So it’s been effectively squeezed out into the atmosphere.

      Infrared radiation doesn’t care whether the molecule it encounters is natural CO2 or man-produced CO2.
    • Fact #3: Carbon dioxide is good for plants, in the sense that it makes them grow more rapidly.

    That’s three numbers we know pretty well: how much CO2 has been added to the atmosphere (through fossil fuel burning and landscape change), how much the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is changing, and how much the total amount of CO2 in the oceans is changing. The last number, the changing concentration of CO2 in plants, animals, and soils, is very difficult to measure directly on a global basis. So it’s usually calculated as a leftover: the total change minus the changes in the atmosphere and ocean. Best estimates right now are that for every 100 molecules of CO2 we add to the atmosphere, the total concentration in the atmosphere goes up by 40 molecules, the amount in the oceans increases by 30 molecules, and the amount in plants and soils increases by 30 molecules.
    Is there any source out there that has all three of these facts correct? I know of one: the IPCC. (Anyone who says the IPCC isn’t reliable should be asked, “Compared to what?”)
    Three Simple Facts About Carbon Dioxide | Climate Abyss | a Chron.com blog
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  10. #11450
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Another report from N-G on something of immediate importance to him as Texas State Climatologist - the drought.

    It has abated somewhat, but the outlook for 2012 is bad.

    Texas Drought 2012: An Update from UT | Climate Abyss | a Chron.com blog
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