662Likes
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacksToo sane looking for our owedeturd.Originally Posted by rash mulligan
Thos thread has become your own personal diary Owed.
I'll say a prayer for you tonight.
Too sane looking for our owedeturd.Thos thread has become your own personal diary Owed.
I'll say a prayer for you tonight.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Why is 2011 not in the top 10? If CO2 is increasing rapidly and there is a direct correlation between global warming and CO2 emissions then every year should be warmer than the preceding.
"No one rules if no one obeys" - Tao
And 2012 is shaping up to be colder (possibly a LOT colder) not warmer.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
A prediction made on no grounds whatsoever. but we will see what we will see.
I think Tombo has been making predictions like that for the last 3 or 4 years.
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
Why should it be?
We are consistently tried to make you aware of natural variability in the climate. Temperature will not increase monotonically, because if it did every year would be the warmest.
2011 will still be warmer than 2008, 1999 & 2000. The former 11th warmest year was 1997, which will become the 12th warmest - if 2011 sticks to form, of course.
Incidentally, if the planet was cooling, as you and other deniers continue to insist, surely 2011 should be in the BOTTOM ten records. But you should be aware - the last record cold year was in 1909 - there has not been a colder year since. All the bottom ten years occurred before 1918.
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
And the laugh in all this.
We have really ony 30 years of relatively accurate global temperature data avaialble since satellites started collecting data that could be used for the purpose of proper uniform homogeneous global measurement.
Being the "11th hottest!!!!", means it is 3 places above the median. Yep, 3 places above the median.
That is like little Owedeturd rushing home from his school sports day to proudly boast to his Mammy that he is "one of the fastest boys in the school" because he finished 11th (maybe 12th) in his class of 30.
Mammy smiles, pats him on the head and gives him a piece of bread with jam and a fresh glass of milk, realising that a child so soft in the head will never go far, but he is her little boy nonetheless.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
But you can't have your cake and eat it. If you make the claim that man made CO2 emissions are directly related to global warming than the temperatures should rise on a linear level year on year. The claim from the volcano in Hawaii as per chart below is that CO2 emissions have increased by around 30%.
That is a steady linear increase and if as you claim CO2 has direct cause on the effect of global temperatures 2011 should not be outside the top 10.
"No one rules if no one obeys" - Tao
Find me the peer-reviewed scientific claim that temperature would rise monotonically as a result of CO2. Nobody made that claim, only science deniers constructing straw men.But you can't have your cake and eat it. If you make the claim that man made CO2 emissions are directly related to global warming than the temperatures should rise on a linear level year on year. The claim from the volcano in Hawaii as per chart below is that CO2 emissions have increased by around 30%.
That is a steady linear increase and if as you claim CO2 has direct cause on the effect of global temperatures 2011 should not be outside the top 10.
You have oh so often been told that of course there are other influences on the climate - solar variance, sulphate aerosols, volcanoes, but the main driver is CO2.
This time, you have constructed such a farcical straw horse to ride, you should just be let fall on your arse.
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
That is a load of horseshyte - a typcial science denier sweeping statement, hoping no one will check it out.
Well, the median anomaly in the HADCRUT record is -0.22046.
2011 will come in about +0.3558, which is the 93.4%-ile - in other words it is in the top 10% of the highest temperature anomalies ever recorded, and just outside the top 5%.
"3 places above the median!"
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
That's the way. Keep coming back to the data. That gives these Alarmists kittens and they invariably retort with predictions.But you can't have your cake and eat it. If you make the claim that man made CO2 emissions are directly related to global warming than the temperatures should rise on a linear level year on year. The claim from the volcano in Hawaii as per chart below is that CO2 emissions have increased by around 30%.
That is a steady linear increase and if as you claim CO2 has direct cause on the effect of global temperatures 2011 should not be outside the top 10.
This rally sould be driven home to everyone. This is what the IPCC said on the matter in its Assessment Report 4:
Read that carefully. It is unambiguous.There is close agreement of globally averaged SAT multi-model mean warming for the early 21st century for concentrations derived from the three non-mitigated IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES: B1, A1B and A2) scenarios (including only anthropogenic forcing) run by the AOGCMs (warming averaged for 2011 to 2030 compared to 1980 to 1999 is between +0.64°C and +0.69°C, with a range of only 0.05°C).
What exactly does that mean? Well starting from January this year up until the end of 2030 (two decades) that average temperature anomally over that period as measured by the satellite data should be +0.60 (a check will show that the average for the UAH temperature anomally between 1980 and 1999 was -0.08).
Our starting point for our 2011-2030 average (i.e. January to October 2011) is 0.16 - again, check it yourself. This is also a fact.
Now, if the average fro 2011-2030 is to be 0.6, then we need to see the anomally increase from the starting 0.16 up to 1.04 for the year 2030 - (unless you want to claim that the anomally could stay at 0 for 19 years and then rise to 12.0 degrees in 2030 and also give an average of 0.60 for the two decades).
So that is it. The predictions, the IPCC gold plated "consensus" that nobody can dispute and is sooo certain, requires that we experience a 1 degree increase in temperatures over the next 20 years.
This looks extreme right? Well it is, at 0.5 degrees per decade it is much much higher than the 0.2 per decade predicted in the IPCC AR4. The reason is because, it hasn't been warming at the predicted rate so far, so the only way for the useless IPCC predictions can be met is if we see accelerating increases.
The warming simply hasn't been happening as predicted.
And it is worse (hard to believe I know). CO2 concentrations have risen FASTER than expected. So we should be seeing a faster than predicted increase in temperature, not slower.
The alarmists typically know this. It is now beyond dispute that they aren't honest mistaken scientists, but lying political ideologues.
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Reply With Quote