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  1. #1
    rash mulligan rash mulligan is offline
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    Winter predictions 2011/2012.

    Winter 2011-12 Update

    As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

    The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

    Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

    Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

    James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

    ExactaWeather.com

    Published: 2nd September 2011 (15:57) BST


    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/ne...-12/20748.html
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  2. #2
    collina collina is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by rash mulligan View Post
    Winter 2011-12 Update

    As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

    The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

    Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

    Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

    James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

    ExactaWeather.com

    Published: 2nd September 2011 (15:57) BST


    Severe Weather Warning Issued For Winter 2011-12 - Irish Weather Online
    Is this the same guy that predicted the "worst winter in a thousand years" in 2010?
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  3. #3
    bob3367 bob3367 is offline

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    Well I think that we are in for a long cold winter which will start in October. I dont base my prediction on science but my very amateur understanding of nature.

    It's only Sept 8th, and leaves are already turning colour and are ready to fall, the season of growth that nature had was short-lived this year and appears ready to get back to sleep.

    We seem to experiencing temps that we would get in late October early November.

    I have a few Bob in a friendly bet with friends that we will have a significant snowfall before Halloween, we,ll see.
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  4. #4
    Levellers Levellers is offline

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    What does the Donegal postman say?
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  5. #5
    rash mulligan rash mulligan is offline
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    This winter will more difficult to predict than the last two.I think it will be could but not as cold as the last two.There has been an increase in solar activity this year though it should be higher still in the 11 year cycle. Twill be interesting for sure.
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  6. #6
    Glucose Glucose is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by rash mulligan View Post
    Winter 2011-12 Update

    As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

    The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

    Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

    Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

    James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

    ExactaWeather.com

    Published: 2nd September 2011 (15:57) BST


    Severe Weather Warning Issued For Winter 2011-12 - Irish Weather Online
    Could this strange phenomenon that you predict, be winter?

    Shock horror, cold weather between November and January.

    I predict leaves will start falling off trees soon. I have a good vibe about it.
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  7. #7
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
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    Is "huge swirly low pressure systems" a technical term?


    His statement that "I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK" seems to indicate that he expects the heaviest snowfalls to occur in the winter.
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  8. #8
    Boggle Boggle is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bob3367 View Post
    Well I think that we are in for a long cold winter which will start in October. I dont base my prediction on science but my very amateur understanding of nature.

    It's only Sept 8th, and leaves are already turning colour and are ready to fall, the season of growth that nature had was short-lived this year and appears ready to get back to sleep.

    We seem to experiencing temps that we would get in late October early November.

    I have a few Bob in a friendly bet with friends that we will have a significant snowfall before Halloween, we,ll see.
    We were talking about this the other day - trees which never lose their leaves until late October are already half bare.

    Wonder is that a sign of a really bad winter?
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  9. #9
    Cassandra Syndrome Cassandra Syndrome is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by collina View Post
    Is this the same guy that predicted the "worst winter in a thousand years" in 2010?
    Yeah it was such a scorcher, -20 in December and the country shut down.....
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  10. #10
    ShoutingIsLeadership ShoutingIsLeadership is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boggle View Post
    We were talking about this the other day - trees which never lose their leaves until late October are already half bare.

    Wonder is that a sign of a really bad winter?
    Or a cold August??
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