Originally Posted by Pat Gill
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Scanned that just for you Tombo.
We have been through this before.
Even with a resevoir capacity a multiple of that you plan, there are sufficiently long periods of low wind power yiled that would run your reservoirs dry. I saw somethnig posted on this forum with actual data that proved it.
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Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
And I was suitably unimpressed with that argument.
Last year Moneypoint had an availability of 77%, 100% availability is a myth.
According to Eurelectric the average energy utilisation of over 600 thermal plants surveyed was 57% between 2001-2010.
http://www.vgb.org/vgbmultimedia/KW_...1_+Outline.pdf
In other words Tombo you have chosen to swallow a strawman.
Best regards, Pat. ____please help test our new site
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Nobody said anything about 100%. that is you little straw man.
It isn't the average that counts it is the unpredictable system minimum that counts. For wind that is zero, with a relatively high probability of it occuring any particular week and an unacceptably high probability of it persisting for an extended period.
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Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Oh how the worm dances and squirms on the hook.
You alluded to information which proves that a Natural Energy Power Station will run out of puff.
The fact is that like a thermal power station the management will decide when it is available for dispatch, all of the models presented here and elsewhere which seek to prove the concept will not work, rely on continuous hydro generation to exhaustion to make their point.
I simply showed that such operation never happens in a conventional power plant so why should such operation be expected of a Natural Energy Power Station.
A commercial operator will run its plant when it is economic to do so.
And sometimes especially at times of high fossil fuel prices it is more economic to operate more in the ancillaries market than the generation market.
Best regards, Pat. ____please help test our new site
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Back to topic. I'm cross posting a comment from me made in the The Climate Change Debate Thread which shows us a bigger picture:
Graph of the Day: Arctic Oscillation and the Winter of Global Weirding
February 8, 2012
Weirdly warm and snowless in the US. Brutally cold and icy in Europe. What’s going on?
Note in the satellite map above, how cold air is shifted out of the arctic and on to the European land mass – while large polar areas are warmer than usual.
Climate Central:
The weather pattern responsible for bringing the frigid air to Europe and Eurasia, and locking it in place, is being driven in part by a naturally-occurring pattern of climate variability known as the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation, or AO, is is a climate index that describes the characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, and a related index describes the circulation over the North Atlantic. Depending on whether it’s in a “positive” or “negative” phase, the Arctic Oscillation can bring warmer or cooler than average wintertime conditions to the U.S. and Europe.
Right now the Arctic Oscillation is in a negative phase, which tends to favor colder than average weather in Europe and the U.S. Scientists don’t fully understand what causes the Arctic Oscillation to switch from one phase to the other, which limits their ability to forecast these changes ahead of time beyond a week in advance.
Stu Ostro, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel who has been keeping close tabs on trends in weather and climate extremes in recent years, said the frigid weather in Europe is another in a series of weird winters that have been related to the Arctic Oscillation.
“It’s interesting that the winter started out the opposite of the previous two, with an exceptionally positive Arctic Oscillation and non-blocking pattern, and then it flipped,” he said via email.
“There has been extreme variability of the Arctic Oscillation in recent years, including a record negative monthly value for December in 2009 (the month of the so-called “Snowpocalypse” in the northeast U.S.), a record negative for any month in February 2010 (“Snowmageddon”), and a record positive one for April in 2011 (coinciding with the extraordinary number of tornadoes in the U.S. that month),” Ostro said. “And this has been occurring in the context of theprecipitous decline of Arctic sea ice volume.”
Also noteworthy is a very strong and persistent high pressure area that has been sprawled across Russia. The airflow around this stubborn high has been transporting Siberian air into Western Europe, as the maps below show. (Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground discusses this in more detail in a blog post today.)
Jeff Knight of the U.K. Met Office also pointed to the importance of that high pressure area. “The current cold weather across Europe relates to the development of a large ‘blocking’ anticyclone over Scandinavia and north-western Russia. Easterly flow on the southern edge of this system has transported cold continental air westwards, displacing the more usual mild westerly influence from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the British Isles,” he stated via email.
“One factor that may well have contributed to the onset of blocking this time is the weakening of the stratospheric jet. The high altitude (above 20 km) circumpolar winds weakened in early January. Research has shown that such weakening often produces a downward effect that subsequently impacts on the troposphere (the atmospheric layer below approximately 10 km where weather occurs). The result is weaker surface westerly winds (or even easterly winds) on average in the mid-latitude northern hemisphere - in other words a negative Arctic Oscillation.”
Knight pointed to a cold snap in 2009 that seems to have had a stratospheric connection as well. Although only some cold European winter spells are the result of these stratospheric upheavals, other recent winters such as 2006 and 2010 have also shown clear examples of the effect.”As Ostro alluded to, in recent years there have been studies examining how the global warming-related loss of Arctic sea ice might affect winter weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. Some of this research shows that sea ice loss may favor winters with predominately negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. One potential result of global warming, referred to as the “Arctic Paradox,” is that sea ice loss can help warm the Arctic during the winter, while setting in motion a chain reaction of events that make winters colder than they otherwise would be in Europe and the U.S..The weather pattern during the past two weeks bears some similarities to conditions last December, when the Arctic Oscillation was in an extremely negative phase, and the jet stream helped drive frigid air and winter storms into both Europe and the U.S. This year, though, only Europe and Eurasia have been unusually cold, as other factors have conspired to protect the Lower 48 from Old Man Winter’s wrath. At least for now, anyway, as there are signs this may change during the next few weeks.
(BTW, stringjack, before you're censoring me again. I have permission from the author to publish the whole article wherever I want to.
You have censored me before with a notice to => http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_de...United_Kingdom
"Under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 (CDPA), fair dealing is limited to the following purposes: research and private study (both must be non-commercial), criticism, review, and news reporting (sections 29, 30, 178). Although not actually defined as a fair dealing, incidental inclusion of a copyrighted work in an artistic work, sound recording, film, broadcast or cable programme doesn't infringe copyright."
Under "fair dealing" I was NOT infringing any copyrights! Maybe you should ask The Independent to get sure about.)
"Only when the last tree has died, the last river has been poisoned and the last fish has been caught will we realize that we cannot eat money."
Take cold comfort . . . humans not solely to blame for bad winters
................of course in the eyes of a few Ray Bates is only a liar and denier!!!
The Irish Times - Sat, Jan 15, 2011 - Take cold comfort . . . humans not solely to blame for bad winters
RAY BATES
ANALYSIS: After exceptionally cold winters in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, are such Arctic conditions going to be more frequent?
THE YEAR 2010 will be remembered in Ireland as one that began and ended with freezing conditions, burst pipes and widespread water shortages.
Confirming this grim picture, Met Éireann’s climate summaries tell us that the cold spell of January 2010 (beginning in the previous month) was the most extreme in Ireland since 1963, while the November-December cold spells set new records, with air temperatures below -15 C in many places.
A glance at global maps of temperature anomalies shows that the cold winter conditions at the beginning and end of 2010 were not just confined to Ireland, but were experienced over large areas of the Northern Hemisphere.
On the other hand, data just released by Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies tell us that, globally, 2010 was one of the two warmest years in the instrumental record, joining 2005 for this distinction.
Thus the global warming trend of recent decades, which the scientific consensus as represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attributes to man-made greenhouse gas emissions, is being sustained on a decadal-average basis.
Is this paradoxical concurrence of man-made global warming and cold northern winters one that involves some cause and effect relationship, is there some other external cause independent of man-made greenhouse gases in operation, or is what we’re seeing just a curious aspect of the natural variability of our climate?
These are questions of enormous interest to climate professionals as well as being of considerable public concern.
Among recent theories that have been put forward suggesting a causal link between man-made global warming and northern winter cooling are that reduced sea ice over the Barents Sea, or enhanced snow cover over Siberia, both seen as resulting from the warming, are giving rise to cold northerly and easterly airflows over Eurasia in winter.
It seems to the present author that these theories are rather far-fetched.
If there is an external cause of our cold winters, I believe most meteorologists would agree that it should be sought through the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The NAO is a climatic phenomenon influencing the entire north Atlantic and surrounding areas. Its simplest measure is the deviation from normal of the surface pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low.
It is well known that the variability of the NAO, which occurs on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, exerts a major influence on the variability of our winters. When the NAO is positive (Azores-Iceland pressure difference larger than normal), our winters tend to be dominated by mild westerly winds; when it is negative they tend to be marked by spells of cold winds coming from the north and east.
The NAO has exhibited large variability during the entire instrumental record but the winter of 2009/10 showed the most extreme negative value ever recorded. The value for the current winter is not yet available, but it seems set to show an even more extreme negative excursion.
Recent research using global climate models at the UK Met Office shows that the variability of the NAO is significantly influenced by conditions in the stratosphere (the region of the atmosphere lying above about 10km). This confirms previous research using simple theoretical models (in which the present author was involved) suggesting the possibility of such a “top-down” influence.
The stratosphere is much more susceptible to direct external influences than the lower levels of the atmosphere.
The major signal of increasing greenhouse gases, for example, is found not in the surface warming but in the stratospheric cooling to which they give rise.
The stratosphere is also significantly influenced by variations in the ultraviolet (UV) component of the solar energy output. Such UV variations are now known from satellite observations to be as large as 6 per cent over the 11-year solar cycle. Thus there is a mechanism whereby greenhouse gas increases and solar variability, separately or in combination, may affect our winters through a “top-down” influence exerted on the NAO from the stratosphere.
Meteorologists and solar physicists are at present actively collaborating with a view to establishing how important the effect of this mechanism may be.
Recent statistical studies at the University of Reading using temperature and sunspot data going back to the Little Ice Age (about 1650–1700) have shown that cold winters in Europe tend to be associated with low solar activity.
During the sunspot minimum of 2009 solar activity fell to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century, and still remains at relatively low levels. The results of these statistical studies are suggestive of an external mechanism but far from conclusive.
The question of whether our recent cold winters have an external cause remains a complex one, awaiting the results of future research for clarification.
I would venture the answer that the anomalous conditions we’ve been seeing have been due mainly to the natural variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but with some “top-down” external influence involving both greenhouse gases and low solar activity as described above.
Our burst pipes and water shortages will inconvenience us from time to time, but the recent conditions that gave rise to them are unlikely to become a habitual feature of our winters.
Ray is correct. Natural variations.I would venture the answer that the anomalous conditions we’ve been seeing have been due mainly to the natural variations
Thank you. Ray. This contradicts the "cooling being caused by warming " madness put forth by Ahlstrom and Gibbons at the Times.These are questions of enormous interest to climate professionals as well as being of considerable public concern.
Among recent theories that have been put forward suggesting a causal link between man-made global warming and northern winter cooling are that reduced sea ice over the Barents Sea, or enhanced snow cover over Siberia, both seen as resulting from the warming, are giving rise to cold northerly and easterly airflows over Eurasia in winter.
It seems to the present author that these theories are rather far-fetched.
This now 4 very cold winters in a row.Our burst pipes and water shortages will inconvenience us from time to time, but the recent conditions that gave rise to them are unlikely to become a habitual feature of our winters.
That's not a nice thing to say about the good Professor...............of course in the eyes of a few Ray Bates is only a liar and denier!!!
You obviously know very little about Professor Bates and his opinions.
He accepts the anthropogenic theory of climate change and has appeared on TV to defend that position against the planks from Turn 180.
Like most deniers and followers of pseudo-science, you need to forget this sentence from his article:
In other words, anthropogenic global warming +/- natural variation, which is the only possible scientific view. Which you deny.The question of whether our recent cold winters have an external cause remains a complex one, awaiting the results of future research for clarification. I would venture the answer that the anomalous conditions we’ve been seeing have been due mainly to the natural variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but with some “top-down” external influence involving both greenhouse gases and low solar activity as described above.
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
That's an improvement for you Owed. Therory.theory of climate change
More flip floppin spin from OTJ. Did you go to school with Obama ?anthropogenic global warming +/- natural variation,
Yes, actually, we both attended the local madrasa in the suburbs of Nairobi and learned the Koran together, with a few courses in how to strip down a Kalashikov, hijack an airliner, and maintain an establishment for 50 virgins. That was before the KGB spirited him off to Hawaii, faked his birth cert and put birth notices in the newpapers ten years before.
This is a sneak preview - I am telling all because Rupert Murdoch hacked my mobile phone, and it will all be on Fox News quite soon. My agent is talking to Alex Jones even as I write.
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume
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