No Warming Since 1995 - Jones?

[ibis]

Holocene Maximum:

The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0–180W; north of ~60N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.6 +- 0.8 deg C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12–10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada

Summer only, too, and apparently accompanied by cooling in the tropics.

[jman0war]

The "Holocene Climate Optimum" was more a regional warming, the Southern Hemisphere was colder.
It's not the same thing as GW.

[Jethro]

Cato Unbound Blog Archive Goklany Okay with 250-Foot Sea-Level Rise

Thought I would post this response to the Goklany/ Cato article.

In the article quoted, Joe Romm argues that sea levels would eventually rise by 80 meters. As I qouted earlier, The IPCC states that the 3 to 5 degrees of warming 125,000 years ago was associated with sea levels 4 to 6M higher. Dr Romm may be correct but Goklany's arguments are framed within the official figures of the IPCC and the earlier DEFRA report (UK). It is hardly fair to knock the Cato piece which relies on IPCC figures and then cite Joe Romm which uses the opinion of James Hansen on a key point.

My own, somewhat lay views, on AGW are best represented by this Richard Tol article.

How much greenhouse gas emission abatement is enough? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

The relevance of Goklany's article, apart from showing SRES projections, is to show how the world's priorities are so wrong. Yes we should address AGW but if it's to stave off hunger or Malaria, CO2 mitigation is an extremely weak instrument. This point is made in Tol's article. Our approach to AGW is costing far more than necessary because the EU emissions controls are too stringent and because it's policy tools are inefficient, overly complex and open to abuse.

[Húrin]

You do know warmer air means more rainfall, right? I already linked to National Geographic which shows how this increased rainfall is greatly increasing the liveable space in parts of Africa.

Because there is more than one variable at play in the climate you can't claim that warmer air = more rainfall. In some places and some times it does and in others it means less rainfall.

Deserts are very warm places but get little rainfall.

Oh, and quit with the personal attacks.

Yes, you would never do that yourself.

[Akrasia]

Because there is more than one variable at play in the climate you can't claim that warmer air = more rainfall. In some places and some times it does and in others it means less rainfall.

Deserts are very warm places but get little rainfall.



Yes, you would never do that yourself.

I'm still waiting for SAT to provide his source for his claim that average northern hemisphere temps were 4 degrees warmer than today 6000 years ago.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

I'm still waiting for SAT to provide his source for his claim that average northern hemisphere temps were 4 degrees warmer than today 6000 years ago.

I can't get proof for 4,000 years BC, but can certainly show that things were a lot hotter in One Million Years BC...

[Tombo]

This might be interesting for this debate:

Shellfish could supplant tree-ring climate data : Nature News

The study's findings suggest that the sagas are reasonably accurate. In the 1000s, for example, the 'Book of Settlements' — a medieval manuscript containing details of Iceland's settlements — reports a famine so severe "men ate foxes and ravens" and "the old and helpless were killed and thrown over cliffs", Patterson says. And according to his shells, it was indeed a difficult era, with summer water temperatures peaking at only 5–6 °C, down from as high as 7.5–9.5 °C around 100 years earlier.

This only extends back 2000 years, but a change of 1.5-3.5 degrees over 100 years:

• Just goes to show the sort of natural climate variation the earth experiences.
• Puts the forecasts for a "calamitous" change of 4 degrees warming into better context
• Shows that the implications of cooling are the ones that would be really worth worrying about.

[Akrasia]

I can't get proof for 4,000 years BC, but can certainly show that things were a lot hotter in One Million Years BC...

You can't come to that conclusion based on one isolated photograph taken 1 million years ago.

[Tombo]

You can't come to that conclusion based on one isolated photograph taken 1 million years ago.

It has a sense of humour.

[Akrasia]

This might be interesting for this debate:

Shellfish could supplant tree-ring climate data : Nature News





This only extends back 2000 years, but a change of 1.5-3.5 degrees over 100 years:

• Just goes to show the sort of natural climate variation the earth experiences.
• Puts the forecasts for a "calamitous" change of 4 degrees warming into better context
• Shows that the implications of cooling are the ones that would be really worth worrying about.

That shows that the water temperatures around Iceland have fluctuated over the past 2000 years.
None of your conclusions can be drawn from this evidence.