No Warming Since 1995 - Jones?

[SAT]

where did you get the idea that global average temps were 4 degrees warmer 6k years ago?

The general consensus amongst paleoclimatologists was that temps were slightly cooler than they are now, and that the consequences of a 4 degree increase in global temperatures would be absolutely catestrophic

Not global average temperatures but temperatures in the Northern hemisphere which is where people happened to live were much warmer. For example one study showed winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer warming of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia whilst the Arctic was 4 C warmer.

Current desert areas such as in central Asia were heavily forested and Africa had a green sahara.

In case you haven't noticed crops grow far better in warm conditions than in cold conditions which is why California with 2 full harvests a year can produce far more crops than us.

The medieval warm period was also a bountiful time followed by widespread famine as temperatures fell.

[Jethro]

Mm. Unfortunately, we still haven't managed to move farming away from being dependent on climate - and the entire history of farming has occurred within the narrow climatic margins of the last 10,000 years, which is why Akrasia asks after 6,000 years ago rather than 125,000. I don't think we can adapt modern technological civilisation to a subsistence hunter-gathering food base.



About 0.12-0.15 degrees.

Thanks for the info on temperatures.

I find your claim that warming could eliminate the ability to farm very hard to believe. But I can't say anymore than that at this stage.

[ibis]

Thanks for the info on temperatures.

I find your claim that warming could eliminate the ability to farm very hard to believe. But I can't say anymore than that at this stage.

It would hardly eliminate the ability to farm! Throwaway remarks should not be extrapolated like that.

[SAT]

This has to be stopped urgently!!

Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?
James Owen
for National Geographic News
July 31, 2009

Desertification, drought, and despair—that's what global warming has in store for much of Africa. Or so we hear.

Emerging evidence is painting a very different scenario, one in which rising temperatures could benefit millions of Africans in the driest parts of the continent.

Images taken between 1982 and 2002 revealed extensive regreening throughout the Sahel, according to a new study in the journal Biogeosciences.
snip
The study suggests huge increases in vegetation in areas including central Chad and western Sudan.
snip
"The trend has continued for more than 20 years. It is indisputable."

Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?

After all, according to Ibis and Akrasia this is a catastrophe.

So back to my question. So what if the Earth did heat up a few degrees.

[feargach]

So back to my question. So what if the Earth did heat up a few degrees.

So back to your question: So what if the Earth did heat up a few degrees?

If the Earth continues to heat up, I expect you will deny that that is happening.

That's one prediction that anyone would be happy to print in a peer-reviewed journal.

[SAT]

So back to your question: So what if the Earth did heat up a few degrees?

If the Earth continues to heat up, I expect you will deny that that is happening.

That's one prediction that anyone would be happy to print in a peer-reviewed journal.

Don't be silly. Nobody except perhaps you and a few of your fellow Flat Earther's claim the planet is still warming. Even the most vociferous AGW proponents accept there has been no warming for 15 years. Prior to that there was warming as one would expect as we recovered from the little ice age. Hopefully this lull is temporary and temperatures recover to reach the same temperatures we enjoyed in the middle age warm period.

I'm still interested to hear why an increase in arable land and a longer growing season is a catastrophe?

Oh dear Arctic ice is recovering rapidly too and this during a la Nina. It is now well within 2 std devs of the norm. So if the North Pole is getting colder and the South Pole is getting colder which pole should we be concerned about? The East or the West :mrgreen:

[Jethro]

It would hardly eliminate the ability to farm! Throwaway remarks should not be extrapolated like that.

According to the IPCC, page 17, here

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...r4-wg2-spm.pdf

4 degrees of warming would cost 1 to 5% of our GDP in 2100.

So to refer back to the claim by Akrasia - a 4 degree increase in temperature would not be remotely catastrophic.

[imokyrok]

Thanks for the info on temperatures.

I find your claim that warming could eliminate the ability to farm very hard to believe. But I can't say anymore than that at this stage.

I think it can be hard to visualize what the future could hold for our grandchildren if what is feared comes to pass. Right now those being effected by climate change are people without a voice and so us westerners don't care all that much. Rather than quote the IPCC and NASA scientific papers etc as has been done to death here, it might be easier to get an idea from some of these links. When you've checked them out ask yourself if it's even a 50/50 chance of it happening should we embrace it or try to remediate the impact in every way possible.

Greg Craven - A different take on Global Warming His videos are worth watching.
Climate change will lead to mass migration in 40 years - Economy and Politics - livemint.com
NASA - The Ups and Downs of Global Warming

There was another site I posted a few days ago which showed what areas of the world would remain suitable for food production but I can't find it at the mo. I'll post it later if I do.

[feargach]

Even the most vociferous AGW proponents accept there has been no warming for 15 years.

Name one AGW proponent who doesn't support the contention that the hottest year in known history happened in the last 15 years. Not Phil Jones, that's for sure.

He was asked a "have you stopped beating your wife?" trick question by the BBC, and he answered it while explaining how the question was false and misleading.

Have you stopped raping children? The answer is no, but it is an extremely misleading unfair question. You have never raped any person, but the structure of the misleading question seems to imply that you have.

[ibis]

According to the IPCC, page 17, here

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...r4-wg2-spm.pdf

4 degrees of warming would cost 1 to 5% of our GDP in 2100.

So to refer back to the claim by Akrasia - a 4 degree increase in temperature would not be remotely catastrophic.

Much like the (erroneous) idea that global warming implies a smooth and palpable rise in temperatures, the idea that you can extrapolate from such a GDP decline to "not remotely catastrophic" requires a good deal of not thinking about what is actually being said.

The effects of climate change, as a glance at the 4 degree map shows, will primarily affect the world's poorest countries. That means that it will have little impact on world GDP, while bringing uncosted hardship to hundreds of millions.