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Currently within two standard deviations of 1979-2000 variation for this time of year and rising.
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Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Just to add on this thread re. Arctic sea ice.
There is 50 ships currently stranded in the Arctic under "the most severe ice conditions since the 1980s" who didn't seem to get Akrasia's memo.
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Third Assessment Report: “long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Despite the UK Met Offices certainty about climate 50 - 100 years in the future they are no longer going to issue seasonal forecasts after becoming objects of ridicule following their abysmal failure in this regard.BBC News - Met Office seasonal forecasts to be scrappedMet Office ends season forecasts
The Met Office is to stop publishing seasonal forecasts, after it came in for criticism for failing to predict extreme weather.
I guess they figure they'll be long retired before there long term predictions can come back to haunt them.
I sincerely hope this is alarmist. If not, all bets about CO2 are off...
Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting Climate Progress
You know, sometimes it's possible to get into this in a kind of grimly amused way:Originally Posted by owedtojoy
The idea of this stuff going into the atmosphere was theoretical only about 5 years ago. Still, the pink and green lines there are "only models", as they say.
Never let the best be the enemy of the good.
it is totally infuriating that there are so many influential people preventing meaningful action of global warming for their own short term interests when the consequences of inaction are so apocalyptic.
It's even more infuriating that they can so easily lead an army of useful idiots to champion their cause in such an ironic way. people calling themselves 'truth seekers' and refering to themselves as Cassandras doing the exact opposite of what Cassandra did, they are playing the role of those who denied Cassandra and ignored her warnings until it was too late.
Contributing absolutely nothing positive except hysterical fear of taxes and imaginary conspiracy theories, they are trying to shift the public discourse from one where we might mitigate the effects of global warming, to one where we do nothing
Actual morality is doing what is right regardless of what you're told. Religious morality is doing what you're told, regardless of if it's right.
To indulge your fantasy for a moment Akrasia, what exactly would be so bad if the world was to heat up a few degrees? During the Holocene Climatic Optimum temps were ~4 C warmer than today. Why do you think it was called the climatic optimum? You worry too much. You really need to chill out before you give yourself a stroke or heart attack worrying about might happen 100 years from now.
where did you get the idea that global average temps were 4 degrees warmer 6k years ago?
The general consensus amongst paleoclimatologists was that temps were slightly cooler than they are now, and that the consequences of a 4 degree increase in global temperatures would be absolutely catestrophic
Actual morality is doing what is right regardless of what you're told. Religious morality is doing what you're told, regardless of if it's right.
According to the IPCC temps 125,000 years ago were 3 to 5C warmer in the polar regions.
Sea levels will be 4 to 6M higher, perhaps more, but this will happen over several centuries giving us plenty of time to adapt. Given that our livelihoods are becoming increasingly less dependant on the climate it is hard to see how the future will be so catastrophic compared to today.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sou...1S7Btx5cCIKF4A
Global average sea level in the last interglacial period
(about 125,000 years ago) was likely 4 to 6 m higher
than during the 20th century, mainly due to the retreat
of polar ice. Ice core data indicate that average polar
temperatures at that time were 3°C to 5°C higher than
present, because of differences in the Earth’s orbit.
I'm about to clock off but, more on topic, does anyone know what the predicted temperature increases are for the next 10 years?
Mm. Unfortunately, we still haven't managed to move farming away from being dependent on climate - and the entire history of farming has occurred within the narrow climatic margins of the last 10,000 years, which is why Akrasia asks after 6,000 years ago rather than 125,000. I don't think we can adapt modern technological civilisation to a subsistence hunter-gathering food base.
About 0.12-0.15 degrees.I'm about to clock off but, more on topic, does anyone know what the predicted temperature increases are for the next 10 years?
Never let the best be the enemy of the good.
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