UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters

[cyberianpan]

Looks like the IPCC is stashed full of bogus science, it's been carrying nonsense for years saying that global warming is causing more natural disasters. The "Peer-reviewed literature" ? A single, unpublished paper... worse still its author withdrew the claim !

UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters - Times Online

THE United Nations climate science panel faces new controversy for wrongly linking global warming to an increase in the number and severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods.

It based the claims on an unpublished report that had not been subjected to routine scientific scrutiny — and ignored warnings from scientific advisers that the evidence supporting the link too weak. The report's own authors later withdrew the claim because they felt the evidence was not strong enough.

...Ed Miliband, the energy and climate change minister, has suggested British and overseas floods — such as those in Bangladesh in 2007 — could be linked to global warming. Barack Obama, the US president, said last autumn: "More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent."

cYp

<Mod> This thread has been merged with "IPCC reform, now: Tol & Pielke". </Mod>

[ibis]

Many eyeballs make all bugs shallow.

[CookieMonster]

So Danny Glover was wrong?

[cyberianpan]

The real problem here is that...

Not merely was there not consensus
Not merely was there not peer review
In fact... there wasn't even a single published paper !

cYp

[ibis]

The real problem here is that...

Not merely was there not consensus
Not merely was there not peer review
In fact... there wasn't even a single published paper !

cYp

There was a paper, peer-reviewed and published, with a publication date after the report came out (and an added caveat). One of the major criticisms of the earlier IPCC reports was that they didn't take into account the latest scientific research, being anything up to 5 years out of date by the time they were published.

If you lot manage to come up with some science, rather than these little PR FUD exercises, let us know, will you?

I won't hold my breath. You've had more than twenty years, and still there's no better explanation for rising global temperatures, sea-levels, and changing climates than AGW. Just a load of flack from the polluting industries' paid "think tanks" and Rupert Murdoch. It achieves its purpose of delaying action - and just like the banks, it won't be the fossil fuel industries that pick up the tab in the end.

[CookieMonster]

The real problem here is that...

Not merely was there not consensus
Not merely was there not peer review
In fact... there wasn't even a single published paper !

cYp

Doesn't matter. It said global warming does bad things... that's all that matters.

[cyberianpan]

There was a paper, peer-reviewed and published, with a publication date after the report came out (and an added caveat). One of the major criticisms of the earlier IPCC reports was that they didn't take into account the latest scientific research, being anything up to 5 years out of date by the time they were published.
.

An added caveat ? The paper wasn't peer reviewed at the time the IPPC used it... and the "caveat" reversed the results 180 degrees !
:

The new controversy also goes back to the IPCC's 2007 report in which a separate section warned that the world had "suffered rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the 1970s".

It suggested a part of this increase was due to global warming and cited the unpublished report, saying: "One study has found that while the dominant signal remains that of the significant increases in the values of exposure at risk, once losses are normalised for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend."

The Sunday Times has since found that the scientific paper on which the IPCC based its claim had not been peer reviewed, nor published, at the time the climate body issued its report.

When the paper was eventually published, in 2008, it had a new caveat. It said: "We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and catastrophe losses."
...
Muir-Wood's paper was originally commissioned by Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at Colorado University, also an expert on disaster impacts, for a workshop on disaster losses in 2006. The researchers who attended that workshop published a statement agreeing that so far there was no evidence to link global warming with any increase in the severity or frequency of disasters. Pielke has also told the IPCC that citing one section of Muir-Wood's paper in preference to the rest of his work, and all the other peer-reviewed literature, was wrong.

He said: "All the literature published before and since the IPCC report shows that rising disaster losses can be explained entirely by social change. People have looked hard for evidence that global warming plays a part but can't find it. Muir-Wood's study actually confirmed that."

So in other words they ignored all the "consensus, peer reviewed literature" and selectively picked one piece, of an unreviewed, unpublished paper ?

And worse still politicians fell for it:

.Ed Miliband, the energy and climate change minister, has suggested British and overseas floods — such as those in Bangladesh in 2007 — could be linked to global warming. Barack Obama, the US president, said last autumn: "More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent."

cYp

[Akrasia]

Looks like the IPCC is stashed full of bogus science, it's been carrying nonsense for years saying that global warming is causing more natural disasters. The "Peer-reviewed literature" ? A single, unpublished paper... worse still its author withdrew the claim !

UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters - Times Online


cYp

So all the projections of more natural disasters is from one source? (natural disasters = extreme weather events)

Right, so I guess


1 Kharin and Zwiers (2005)
2 §11.3.3.3, Supplementary Material Figure S11.23, PRUDENCE, Kjellström
et al. (2007)
3 §11.7.3.5, CSIRO (2001)
4 §11.3.3.3, PRUDENCE, Kjellström et al. (2007)
5 §11.5.3.3, Bell et al. (2004),
6 Table 11.1
7 §11.3.3.3, Tebaldi et al. (2006), Meehl and Tebaldi (2004)
8 §11.5.3.3, Barnett et al. (2006), Clark et al. (2006), Tebaldi et al. (2006),
Gregory and Mitchell (1995), Zwiers and Kharin (1998), Hegerl et al. (2004),
Meehl and Tebaldi (2004)
9 §11.5.3.3, Bell et al. (2004), Leung et al. (2004)
10 §11.4.3.2, Gao et al. (2002)
11 §11.4.3.2, Kwon et al. (2005), Boo et al. (2006)
12 §11.3.3.2, §11.4.3.1
13 Kharin and Zwiers (2005)
14 §11.3.3.2, Fig. 11.3.3.3, PRUDENCE
15 §11.7.3.5, Whetton et al. (2002)
16 Tebaldi et al. (2006), Meehl and Tebaldi (2004), §11.3.3.2, PRUDENCE,
§11.7.3.1, CSIRO (2001), Mullan et al. (2001b)
17 §11.3.3.2, PRUDENCE, Kjellström et al. (2007), §11.4.3.2, Gao et al.
(2002), Rupa Kumar et al. (2006)
18 §11.1.3
19 §11.5.3.3, Bell et al. (2004), Leung et al. (2004), §11.4.3.2, Rupa Kumar et
al. (2006), Mizuta et al. (2005)
20 §11.3.3.2, Räisänen (2001), Räisänen and Alexandersson (2003), Giorgi
and Bi (2005), Zwiers and Kharin (1998), Hegerl et al. (2004), Kjellström et
al. (2007)
21 §11.3.3.2, PRUDENCE, Schär et al. (2004), Vidale et al. (2007)
22 §11.3.3.4, Groisman et al. (2005), Kharin and Zwiers (2005), Hegerl et al.
(2004), Semenov and Bengtsson (2002), Meehl et al. (2006)
23 §11.3.3.4, Räisänen (2002), Giorgi and Bi (2005), Räisänen (2005)
24 §11.1.3, §11.7.3.2, §11.3.3.4, Huntingford et al. (2003), Barnett et al.
(2006), Frei et al. (2006), Hennessy et al. (1997), Whetton et al. (2002),
Watterson and Dix (2003), Suppiah et al. (2004), McInnes et al. (2003),
Hennessy et al. (2004b), Abbs (2004), Semenov and Bengtsson (2002)
25 §11.4.3.2, May (2004a), Rupa Kumar et al. (2006)
26 §11.4.3.2, Gao et al. (2002), Boo et al. (2006), Kimoto et al. (2005), Kitoh et
al. (2005), Mizuta et al. (2005)
27 §11.3.3.4, PRUDENCE, Frei et al. (2006), Christensen and Christensen
(2003, 2004)
28 §11.1.3, §11.4.3.2, Kimoto et al. (2005), Mizuta et al. (2005), Hasegawa
and Emori (2005), Kanada et al. (2005)
29 §11.3.3.4, PRUDENCE, Frei et al. (2006), Christensen and Christensen
(2004), Tebaldi et al. (2006)
30 §11.3.3.4, PRUDENCE, Frei et al. (2006)
31 §11.4.3.2, Gao et al. (2002), Hasegawa and Emori (2005)
32 Semenov and Bengtsson (2002)
33 §11.4.3.2 Krishna Kumar et al. (2003)
34 §11.3.3.4, Semenov and Bengtsson (2002), Voss et al. (2002); Räisänen et
al. (2004); Frei et al. (2006)
35 §11.3.3.4, Semenov and Bengtsson, 2002; Voss et al., 2002; Hegerl et al.,
2004; Wehner, 2004; Kharin and Zwiers, 2005; Tebaldi et al., 2006
36 §11.1.3, §11.7.3.2, §11.7.3.4, Whetton and Suppiah (2003), McInnes et al.
(2003), Walsh et al. (2002), Hennessy et al. (2004c), Mullan et al. (2005)
37 §11.1.3
38 §11.3.3.4, Beniston et al. (2007), Tebaldi et al. (2006), Voss et al. (2002)
39 §11.3.3.2, Rowell and Jones (2006)
40 §11.1.3, §11.3.3.4, Voss et al. (2002)
41 §11.1.3
42 Knutson and Tuleya (2004)
43 Knutson and Tuleya (2004)
44 §11.4.3.2, Unnikrishnan et al. (2006)
45 §11.3.4, Hasegawa and Emori (2005)
46 §11.3.4, Hasegawa and Emori (2005), Knutson and Tuleya (2004)
47 Oouchi et al. (2006)
48 Hasegawa and Emori (2005)
49 Sugi et al. (2002), Oouchi et al. (2006)
50 §11.3.3.6, Yin (2005), Lambert and Fyfe (2006), §11.3.3.5, Lionello et al.
(2002), Leckebusch et al. (2006), Vérant (2004), Somot (2005)
51 §11.1.3, Yin (2005), Lambert and Fyfe (2006)
52 §11.1.2, §11.3.3.5, Yin (2005), Lambert and Fyfe (2006)
53 §11.3.3.5, Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004)
54 §11.3.3.5, Zwiers and Kharin (1998), Knippertz et al. (2000), Leckebusch
and Ulbrich (2004), Pryor et al. (2005a), Lionello et al. (2002), Leckebusch
et al. (2006), Vérant (2004), Somot (2005)
55 §11.1.3, §11.7.3.7
56 §11.3.3.5, Lionello et al. (2002), Leckebusch et al. (2006), Vérant (2004),
Somot (2005)
57 X.L. Wang et al. (2004)

are just cited in AR4 for the decoration? (note, above references are only a small sample of the relevant literature on the topic of climate projections as a result of global warming)

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/...Print_Ch11.pdf

[Akrasia]

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[Akrasia]

Just to press the point a little further, the above list is less than 1/5 of the reference list for this subsection of the AR4 report (Regional climate projections)
IPCC documents are meticulously sourced.

The claim that all predictions of natural disasters as a result of global warming are based on only one paper from 2006 is clearly totally ludicrous.