Global 2009 temperatures (to October) are the fifth highest on record

[feargach]

Just a little fact to bear in mind when you hear people using the word "cooling" a lot.

The detailed info:

* Global land and ocean annual surface temperatures through October are the fifth warmest on record, at 0.56 °C (1.01 °F) above the long-term average.
* NOAA scientists project 2009 will be one of the 10 warmest years of the global surface temperature record, and likely finish as the fourth, fifth or sixth warmest year on record.
* The 2000-2009 decade will be the warmest on record, with its average global surface temperature about 0.54 °C (0.96 °F) above the 20th Century average. This will easily surpass the 1990s value of 0.36 °C (0.65 °F).
* Ocean surface temperatures (through October) were the sixth warmest on record, at 0.47 °C (0.85 °F) above the 20th century average.
* Land surface temperatures through October were the fifth warmest on record, at 0.80 °C (1.44 °F) above the 20th century average.

Now, are those hacked emails really so very important, eh?

State of the Climate

[seabhcan]

at 0.56 °C (1.01 °F) above the long-term average.

Whats the margin of error on that measurement?

[feargach]

I don't know. I'm not even sure modern thermometers have a margin of error, to any significant degree.

I'm not aware of any nurses ever saying to anyone, that they are running a temperature, when in fact they are not.

I was under the impression that mercury in a vacuum tube expands and contracts in a very precise and invariant way according to temperature. I got the idea that whatever variability there might be would be very slight, having to do with impurities in the mercury.

Have you contrary information?

If I had to guess, I suppose I'd plump for saying that the measurements would be plus or minus one hundredth of a degree fahrenheit.

[cyberianpan]

It is not prudent to use single year records as proof of long term climate change

At that scale, most seem to say change is down to changing ocean currents

BBC This year 'in top five warmest
That was caused in part by the Pacific La Nina current, which cools the Earth.
But the influence of La Nina declined in the spring and the Met Office project that, barring a very cold December, this year will be the fifth warmest on record.

Also see The Independent

cYp

[seabhcan]

I don't know. I'm not even sure modern thermometers have a margin of error, to any significant degree.

Did they use a single thermometer to measure the 'global' temperature? Or did they use a complex sampling procedure allong with statistical interpolation and integration?

(Mercury thermometers have a margin of error of +/- 0.1C. But there are far more sources of error when trying to measure the global temperature using a relatively small number of measurement points, and then trying to interpolate. And trying to measure the 'long term average' temperature is as accurate as measuring the long term value of NAMA assets.)

[Keith-M]

When did this recording actually start?

[seabhcan]

When did this recording actually start?

I'm not sure it ever did. All that happens is that they take the thousands of usual weather measurements, most of which are in cities, universities and airports, and they work out a very complex statistical calculation to try remove the obvious sources of local heating.

I'd be surprises of the honest margin of error was less than +- 1C

[Keith-M]

I'm not sure it ever did. All that happens is that they take the thousands of usual weather measurements, most of which are in cities, universities and airports, and they work out a very complex statistical calculation to try remove the obvious sources of local heating.

I'd be surprises of the honest margin of error was less than +- 1C

It would surprise me if this worldwide level on measurement could be done accuratly in modst of the 19th century, therefore saying the "fifth highest on record" might actually mean within the last 150 years or less.

[seabhcan]

It would surprise me if this worldwide level on measurement could be done accuratly in modst of the 19th century, therefore saying the "fifth highest on record" might actually mean within the last 150 years or less.

Even the current 'measurements' of global temperature are very unlikely to be accurate to less than half a degree.

[seabhcan]

If you want an insight into the accuracy of weather measurements during the 19-20 century, the Brendan McWilliams had a great article a few years ago:

Anomaly of Offaly rainfall explained - The Irish Times - Sat, May 26, 2007

He explains the reason why it was once thought that Co Offaly was the driest region in Ireland.

E.G. Bilham's classic Climate of the British Isles (1938) contains a
detailed average annual rainfall map for Ireland and Britain, based on
figures for the 35-year period from 1881 to 1915, and it shows the
Offaly "dry spot" very clearly.

By way of commentary, Bilham writes: "Narrow strips on the east coasts
of Scotland and Ireland have an annual fall of under 30 inches; and
there is a curious little patch in the centre of Ireland to which this
statement also applies."

This was on the leaving cert course until the 70's. The reason was this:

However, Mr Reidy has provided the reason for this singularity. He has
kindly drawn my attention to the memoir Sun Too Fast, written in 1974
by Sheila Wingfield, Viscountess Powerscourt (1906-1992), a lady who
has been the subject of renewed interest in recent months with the
publication of her biography, Something to Hide, by Penny Perrick.

Remembering her youth at her grandparents' house, Bellair, just
outside Ballycumber, Co Offaly, Lady Powerscourt recalled: "A
cheerless little rain-gauge opposite the front door evoked my
grandfather being rebuked for sending regular readings from it to the
British Meteorological Office at Greenwich, when he knew perfectly
well that the cockatoo used the gauge as a convenient source of
drinking water. 'You don't suppose they bother what the rainfall is in
Ballycumber, do you?' he said, and continued to send in his records
from impishness combined with a Victorian sense of duty."