Climate change accelerating beyond expectations, according to top climate scientists

[zeleneye]

"Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some of the world’s top climate scientists..."

The Copenhagen Diagnosis

Posted in another thread but worthy of a thread in itself. A report updating the now totally outdated IPCC 4AR.

Presumably this thread will be trolled out of all meaning but its worth having this important report posted.

[Húrin]

Unfortunately this has been the story for most of the time since 2007. I hope that the prediction that got circulation in September, that we would get a decade or two of steady temperatures comes true first. We really need time.

[Lennon]

Shocking extracts from the report as follows:

Based on a number of new studies, the synthesis document of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Congress (Richardson et al. 2009) concluded that “updated estimates of the future global mean sea level rise are about double the IPCC projections from 2007.”

"Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that nchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states."

[imokyrok]

It's worthy of it's own thread alright and heres a synopsis - for those deniers that have arthritis in their clicking finger.

Climate change accelerating beyond expectations, urgent emissions reductions required, say leading scientists

Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some of the world’s top climate scientists.

In a special report called ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis’, the 26 researchers, most of whom are authors of published IPCC reports, conclude that several important aspects of climate change are occurring at the high end or even beyond the expectations of only a few years ago.

The report also notes that global warming continues to track early IPCC projections based on greenhouse gas increases. Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which was a year in the making, documents the key findings in climate change science since the publication of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

The new evidence to have emerged includes:
Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.

To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.

The full report is available at download.copenhagendiagnosis.org

I had been aware that the IPCC were being conservative in their predictions - though you wouldn't know it from the accusations of "alarmism" we see directed at them in the media - but it appears that "conservative" may have been the understatement of the century.

[Húrin]

It's worthy of it's own thread alright and heres a synopsis - for those deniers that have arthritis in their clicking finger.
.

I don't think they would bother anyway. Evidence doesn't matter to them. They've resisted science this long - why stop now?

[southwestkerry]

Sod's law says I, am accelerating beyond all expectations these days and it's all down to my own free will.

[imokyrok]

Sod's law says I, am accelerating beyond all expectations these days and it's all down to my own free will.

Wah?

[Rebel CNC]

"Climate change accelerating beyond all expectations"

FFS - a report with variation on headline above comes out every six months or so. Assuming we can't stop China, India, Brazil, etc in their tracks from continuing to develop from third world standards, can we look at ways of learning to live with climate change rather than trying to reverse it.

[zeleneye]

"Climate change accelerating beyond all expectations"

FFS - a report with variation on headline above comes out every six months or so.

Eh. No it doesn't.

If you had bothered to click, you would have seen that this is a new synthesis report of the latest peer reviewed science (that was not taken into account by the most recent IPCC report). What this means is that it has analysed the additional science since 2005 and updated the IPCC findings on the basis of this. (The next IPCC assessment won't be out until 2013 AFAIK.)

Its 26 authors are from at least 8 different climate research centres and most of them are IPCC contributors.

[Wakeupcall]

Irelands contribution is nothing. We should ignore it

We should focus our energies on the biggest polluters, China, USA, India etc...

If we bring in carbon tax it will further cripple this ********************ed economy. We are a tiny little blip in relation to climate change. Anyone supporting carbon taxes in Ireland should have their hands cut off... we are low polluters we are tiny. China is a dirty polluter and getting worse. ALL the world efforts should be used to curb the emmissions by these countries.

I think deniers and believers could unite on this one.

Dont say lead by example. Compare CHina pollution with Ireland.... Leading by example is irrelevant.