Dublin Central

[davehiggz]

Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Central First Preference Votes

Currently: 2 FF, 1 Labour and 1 Independent

Maureen O'Sullivan is dead certain to retain her seat and she may even top the poll.

Pascal Donohoe FG polled very well in the bye-election so he should have a safe seat too.

Labour are also dead certain for a seat here too. Joe Costello will probably keep his seat. There was talk of Labour running Ivana Bacik along side him however I don't believe there's scope for a second Labour seat. I suggest Bacik runs where she lived .

So one might assume that seat 4 would go to FF. If there's no one else to give a hard challenge then FF probably will take a seat and that may come from either Mary Fitzpatrick or Cyprian Brady.

However if Mary Lou McDonald runs then it's likely that she'll take the seat.

I predict: 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 SF (or 1 FF w/out MLM)

[Fianna Fáiler]

Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.

[Anorakphobia]

Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.

No FF seat here if the gurrier doesn't run and a decent chance of none even if he does.
My guess is that he cannot resist the limelight and will run.
This may leave Mary Fitzpatrick with nowhere to go except Independent and this will definitely finish any chance of a FF seat.

Maurice Ahern's by election vote of 12% is an accurate barometer of where FF are in DC now and that will not see them get near a seat as transfer wise, Oliver Cromwell would do better.

[Harmonica]

Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.

Costello, O'Sullivan & Donohue should get seats. Can't see getting a seat. Fitzpatrick is probably only FF-er who can get a seat. If FF run Brady & Maurice Ahern they will likely end up with nothing. Probably the onlt way MLM would get a seat by default.

[Fianna Fáiler]

Costello, O'Sullivan & Donohue should get seats. Can't see getting a seat. Fitzpatrick is probably only FF-er who can get a seat. If FF run Brady & Maurice Ahern they will likely end up with nothing. Probably the onlt way MLM would get a seat by default.

I'd say we'll run Mary Fitzpatrick and let Cyprian Brady run alongside her. With Fitzgerald taking the seat.

[breakingnews]

O'Sullivan will struggle, there's a history of independents getting in in by-elections and then losing in the general election. A lot of her vote in June was sympathy based. Equally though, Mary Lou won't make a breakthrough. Hard one to call. Not definite either if Bertie will quit.

[Richard Roma]

Can't see FF losing both seats here, they did reasonably well in Cabra Glasnevin in the locals, though Cyprian Brady might pull out to save himself the embarrassment. O' Sullivan may find it tough going aswell seeing as she can't harp on ad nauseum about Tony Gregory next time. And Christy Burke debacle is bound to have a detrimental effect on the Sinn Fein vote. Labour are home and dry and so are Fine Gael despite having Father Dougal as a candidate.

After my amateur analysis, I predict 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 FF

[davehiggz]

so are Fine Gael despite having Father Dougal as a candidate.

Donohoe's father died this weekend

[Richard Roma]

Oh, that's very sad, I had no idea.

[LgCastell]

I'd agree with O' Sullivan next time out she cant ride on Gregory's coattails which i found quite annoying constantly saying its tonys seat and i want to continue his legacy ... next time out she cant use this ...so without that ground it'll come down to her performance since she was elected ....

Donohoe should get in no prob as you said he performed well in the bye election and got decent airtime being brutons chauffeur during his coup!!!

Lab's Costello also safe..has the 2nd lab been announced here?

I cant see Bertie running again surely he'll turn his attention to his budding literary career!!! and difficult to see a former taoiseach wanting to be a backbencher in opposition?

Mary Fitz should be lead FFer she polled well in the LE but no room for 2 FF brady will lose out i'd say he was dependant on the Bertie vote and if thats not there he'll fall away

It'll be interesting to see what guise McKenna will be running under with rumours of her new party, MLM might poll strongly

I'd say FG,Lab,FF all one last seat between - SF and Indo