I am not 100% certain about this. The depth of what can only be called hatred for FF has not been measured. If this was one of the spots where FF got no seat I would not be amazed.Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler
[SIZE="1"]P.S If you heard O'Cuiv on Newstalk yestrday morninin you woulsd despair--literally a f***wit.[/SIZE]
This is a constituency where Labour must pick up a second seat if there is to be any benefit from a Gilmore Gale.
Costello is a shoo-in.
Donoghue must win a seat, if only by default. Will probably snaffle a quota.
O'Sullivan is FF-lite, has no presence, and will not be returned. SF should benefit from the collapse of the Gregory vote.
FF vs Labour for the last seat. Fitzpatrick might take it if Costello does not do all that is necessary to get 2 Labour seats.
Sinn feins vote in dublin central was always either a christy burke vote or a nicky kehoe vote, with neither of them running as SF candidates any more mary lou will have to do a lot of work to be in with a shout of a GE seat. My own belief having lived in the constituency for over 20 years until i moved to the country is that it will go 2 labour 1 fine gael 1 fianna fail with maureen o sullivan and mary lou being very close in terms of first prefs but neither of them gaining eiough transfers from what will be a massive surplus for costelloe to overhaul the 2nd labour candidate and mary fitzpatrick who will talke the 3rd and 4 th seats
This is a funny thread. I am not up to speed on day to day dublin central but I find it hilarious that a sinn feiner from blanchardstown would predict a seat in dublin central while not mentioning the partys failure in our area. In Blanchardstown-Dublin west, we have a sinn fein candidate who, having left the party over the promotion of Mary Lou, ran back when the offer of an unelected council seat was on the table. He then went on to loose this seat despite the previous candidate topping the poll. A serial looser and a reflection of the partys lack of relevance to ordinary voters here. Joe Higgins will return in Dublin west and as for dublin central, I'd say Christy burke will get more votes than Mary Lou because people see he is genuine and not just a tv personality.
No you are not up to speed on Dublin Central and if your talking about Paul Donnelly then you will also know he is from DC and knows a bit more about the area. Sometimes i think this is more a bash SF site than anything else.
Mary lou is sticking with DC and is a lot more on the ground with ordinary people than most realise. Given another 12 months and she is a serious contender in DC and a lot of the parties are beginning to keep a close eye on her. As for Christy Burke he is not the force people think he is and without SF he will struggle to keep his council seat.
And i know DC
I'm not writing her off at all (in fact I think she is probable to shade it) but it will be very tough, and I'd say there's a 40-45% chance she'll not make it. SF got 9.59% in Cabra/Glasnevin and 15.6% in North Inner City in '09, around 12-13%. Burke got over 82% of the NIC SF vote with his running mate doing extremely poorly, so I think the suggestion that this vote will meekly follow Mary-Lou seems a tad optimistic to me.
Of course, one can't base it all on the LEs. They are a specific type of election, different to a GE, and also with different candidates. And there has also been a shift in the electorate since then - whatever way you measure it, there is a massive increase in the number of voters saying that they'll vote LP.
How that all unfolds in Dub C will be fascinating though.
Opinion Polls Blog
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
If you were being completely honest you would have mentioned the re-drawing of the boundarys which seen strong Sinn Fein areas transferred riducoulsly to Castlekonck from Mulhuddart, Whitestown, fortlawn, sheepmore and whitechaple/Lohunda were all removed. the SF candidate who stood there took nearly 600 votes, so a huge factor you forgot to mention. And I recall an article in the Nrth side people Praising Paul Donnelly as the only party Rep still workin after the last election. Also Paul has put on the record that he left the party to concentrate on his own career in The school completion programme after nearly 15 yrs. as a Sinn Fein activist. FTI, I am not he, but work closely with him. Now to DC you obviously know nothing about the area and are just a Sinn Fein Basher. Burke has few activists and will struggle ,if he does indeed run atall !! . My info is that he won't and will save his "powder" for the Locals , which pays his bills.
Has Ahern definitively ruled out running again?
If he has, I haven't seen it.
Mary Lou is not on the ground in Dublin Central. She hasnt been seen.
And as for christy, he has a great organisation in the local area.
Most sinn fein mebers from the area went with him and some shinners who had left before him, tie in with him now that hes an independent.
You havent a clue waht your on about.
As for Donnelly, Enough said.
The republican movement has fought bigger and better enemies that the pathitic key board warriors here. "We have'nt gone away ye know "
Indeed they have.
But your not a member of the republican movement.
You seem to be a supporter of the constitutional nationalist party Sinn Féin who sit in a british controlled assembly in stormont and administer british rule.
Sinn Fein have no hope in DC, and have no activists on the ground.
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With Quote