Dublin Central

[Crannog]

Like having her in the EP, where their vote flatlined and she lost her seat? Mary-Lou is a three time loser, rejected by the people of Dublin West, Dublin Central and Dublin in general. The fact that she hasn't done the decent thing and left politics is a sad indictment of the poor level of people that SF have avalable to them.

First of all Dublin went from a 4 seater to a 3 seater someone was going to lose out as i believe FF did as well. There was also a sustained campaign against her with regards attendence ignoring the fact that she had a baby during her time as an MEP.

Its a testament to her strength that she is getting back in the ring for another round in possibly one of the toughest constituencies in the country. And here s something else to consider. 15 years ago SF were on 1.5% in this country now they are in on around 8 to 10%. 15 years ago they were on 10% in the north where are they now.

SF getting 7 seats in the next Dail will have longer term ramifications for irish politics than labour winning 40. Mary Lou has as good a chance in DC as FF ,FG or a second labour candidate only a fool who hasnt looked at the figures would write her of.

[Blanchinner]

Like having her in the EP, where their vote flatlined and she lost her seat? Mary-Lou is a three time loser, rejected by the people of Dublin West, Dublin Central and Dublin in general. The fact that she hasn't done the decent thing and left politics is a sad indictment of the poor level of people that SF have avalable to them.

keith M , don't hide your hostility will ye,. deep analysis eh. One of the reasons most die hard republicans carry on and on is make the likes of you sick as a pig, and we will, mark my words !! , when mary lou takes a seat in DC,. The republican movement has fought bigger and better enemies that the pathitic key board warriors here. "We have'nt gone away ye know "

[Blanchinner]

keith M , don't hide your hostility will ye,. deep analysis eh. One of the reasons most die hard republicans carry on and on is make the likes of you sick as a pig, and we will, mark my words !! , when mary lou takes a seat in DC,. The republican movement has fought bigger and better enemies that the pathitic key board warriors here. "We have'nt gone away ye know "

[Keith-M]

First of all Dublin went from a 4 seater to a 3 seater someone was going to lose out as i believe FF did as well. There was also a sustained campaign against her with regards attendence ignoring the fact that she had a baby during her time as an MEP.

No one ignored the fact that she had a baby, but people pointed out that on days that she was supposed to be representing the people of Dublin in the EP, she was having clinic in Dublin, trying to build her profile for the Dail rather than doing the job she already had.

Its a testament to her strength that she is getting back in the ring for another round in possibly one of the toughest constituencies in the country. And here s something else to consider. 15 years ago SF were on 1.5% in this country now they are in on around 8 to 10%. 15 years ago they were on 10% in the north where are they now.

Politics in N.I. bear no relationship to N.I. SF have managed to build a position in NI from eating into the SDLP vote, nothing more. Even with that, recent elections show that SF are either flatlining or in decline in NI. It doesn't take "strength" to contest an election, all it takes in money and a party machine. McDonald has both but has failed to deliver.

SF getting 7 seats in the next Dail will have longer term ramifications for irish politics than labour winning 40. Mary Lou has as good a chance in DC as FF ,FG or a second labour candidate only a fool who hasnt looked at the figures would write her of.

You're joking me? This time five years ago SF were predicting that they would win 12 seats in the next General Election. They LOST one of their five seats and flat-lined in the FPV (going slightly backwards if you compare like with like). Now they see seven seats as a target. Of all the opposition parties they are the only one not making ground from the difficulties of the government parties.

SF are a busted flush in this country and will remain so while their leadership is based in N.I.

[Crannog]

No one ignored the fact that she had a baby, but people pointed out that on days that she was supposed to be representing the people of Dublin in the EP, she was having clinic in Dublin, trying to build her profile for the Dail rather than doing the job she already had.



Politics in N.I. bear no relationship to N.I. SF have managed to build a position in NI from eating into the SDLP vote, nothing more. Even with that, recent elections show that SF are either flatlining or in decline in NI. It doesn't take "strength" to contest an election, all it takes in money and a party machine. McDonald has both but has failed to deliver.



You're joking me? This time five years ago SF were predicting that they would win 12 seats in the next General Election. They LOST one of their five seats and flat-lined in the FPV (going slightly backwards if you compare like with like). Now they see seven seats as a target. Of all the opposition parties they are the only one not making ground from the difficulties of the government parties.

SF are a busted flush in this country and will remain so while their leadership is based in N.I.

First of all i am an independent analyst i look at trends and try to remain impartial regardless of my own beliefs.
Constituency by constituency SF will hold 4 they are tipped nationally and by most people on this site to take 2 in Donegal. In DNW they are running at 25% and have to be favourite for a seat. That is 7 seats and speaking rights and they missed out narrowly in a number of constituencies last time.

I live in DC and i was not aware of MLD running a clinic in the area i know she was trying to spend as much time with her new born as possible.

With regards NI most parties in the south would be delighted to flatline at 25% and i think you will find they will eat a lot more into the SDLP vote next year as nationalists try to deliver a first minister. If SF take that position that will have a huge rippling effect along border constituencies. My point with regards to the north and what most people miss out on is SF gain in degrees and some times they are so small you dont notice them.

They dont yoyo up and down 5 or 10% at a time 1or 2 per cent every other year and thats exactly what happenned in the north and is happening here.

[Blanchinner]

First of all i am an independent analyst i look at trends and try to remain impartial regardless of my own beliefs.
Constituency by constituency SF will hold 4 they are tipped nationally and by most people on this site to take 2 in Donegal. In DNW they are running at 25% and have to be favourite for a seat. That is 7 seats and speaking rights and they missed out narrowly in a number of constituencies last time.

I live in DC and i was not aware of MLD running a clinic in the area i know she was trying to spend as much time with her new born as possible.

With regards NI most parties in the south would be delighted to flatline at 25% and i think you will find they will eat a lot more into the SDLP vote next year as nationalists try to deliver a first minister. If SF take that position that will have a huge rippling effect along border constituencies. My point with regards to the north and what most people miss out on is SF gain in degrees and some times they are so small you dont notice them.

They dont yoyo up and down 5 or 10% at a time 1or 2 per cent every other year and thats exactly what happenned in the north and is happening here.

fair Play Crannog, and your spot on ,Sinn Féin are doing serious work in Dc. the office in cabra is very busy , and even down to East Wall ,where she has a crew on the ground, including the local primary school head. Family down there have told me Joe (Ninety) Mooney is not involved in the community as much as he was ! He defo won't stand. Maureen O sullivan is none existant, Fact. Fine Gaels O'Donohue is puttin in a lot of work in the area , but East wall is pure working class dockers land and SF are in a strong position down there. the big inroad was the SF support for the striking dockers last year. A great campaign of support was run by SF and even the sec.of the strike commitee joined SF !

[Ronanh87]

Yes, and Áine Clancy also happens to be a woman - it'd be fairly mean to call your son Áine.
@ Ronanh87 Bacik was only ran because there was no-one else available at the time. The only sitting cllr at the time who planned on running again in a ward in the constituency was Joe Costelloe's wife - and family tickets don't work which would have caused problems at the next GE had she won (quite possible). Bacik does not live in the constituency and has the complete opposite appeal to what most voters in DC go for. The fact that she got 17% in the bye-election really does say something good for labour in Dublin Central. Clancy is from the area, on the ground, a good vote getter ( particularly for a first timer) and geographically separated from Costelloe. She is the best for the job if labour are to come anywhere near 2 seats in DC.

I was going on the bye election candidates sorry,saying that there was only three women candiates in general election.

[Wednesday]

One other thing to throw in the mix here. DC has a substantial immigrant population and the more time passes til the next election, the more will have citizenship status and hence voting rights. Where those votes are going to go is anyone's guess but in a very tight race they could be decisive - and I think we're all agreed the race for at least the last couple seats could be very tight indeed.

[The Salmon of Knowledge]

fair Play Crannog, and your spot on ,Sinn Féin are doing serious work in Dc. the office in cabra is very busy , and even down to East Wall ,where she has a crew on the ground, including the local primary school head. Family down there have told me Joe (Ninety) Mooney is not involved in the community as much as he was ! He defo won't stand. Maureen O sullivan is none existant, Fact. Fine Gaels O'Donohue is puttin in a lot of work in the area , but East wall is pure working class dockers land and SF are in a strong position down there. the big inroad was the SF support for the striking dockers last year. A great campaign of support was run by SF and even the sec.of the strike commitee joined SF !

Joe Mooney is very involved in the community.
He was recently responsibly for organsing the support for the striking dublin dockers.

He has alot of support in east wall, and this will go to Perry.

Sinn Féin are not doing serious work in Dc, no matter how much you flaunt that lie.

[Reality bites]

There is an awful lot of hype of SF on this thread. Their vote seemed to collapse in locals without Kehoe on ballot in Cabra-Glasnevin, plus their vote in NIC is associated with Burke now Ind.

Im not writing off their chance of a seat but its gonna require a lot of work.