Dublin Central

[dotski_w_]

FF came in fifth behind SF in the bye election they do not have a safe seat in DC. Bertie will not be running and he had a huge personal vote.

Dublin central save a small part of glasnevin and the navan rd is a wasteland for FG and has been for almost 25 years. The exception to this was when ballyfermot was included during one election. No natural FG seat here.

Maureen osullivan does not have the gregory vote tied up and the sympathy vote is wearing thin as she does not represent the people the way he did. She will struggle.

Joe is safe and will benefit on a personal level from Tonys absence but that is a working class DC vote which goes with the personality rather than the party and dont underestimate it in DC. This will not give labour 2 seats.

Anyone who says MLD is invisible in DC either doesnt live there or has there head in the sand. And as for a burke split he left and i dont think a single person left with him. In fact i know there are a lot of people back on board behind Mary Lou and i think some of the other candidates are starting to realise it.

As i said previous this will be a very interesting constituency with 1 guaranteed seat and thats Joes.

Not a bad analysis. I think Clancy (assuming she's LP2) will win or lose depending on the general swing to LP. In normal circumstances where LP was at about 10% nationally, I'd see her get about 6-7% and Joe double that. The question is whether that national vote in the polls holds, and whether it translates here. Obviously some of it would, and the Q would be how much.

I'm no longer on the ground there, but I do wonder what will happen with the Gregory vote, and to a certain extent the vote Cieran Perry took in the locals. MOS is surely vulnerable to the charge that she's been saving Cowen's bacon in the Dail divisions, not something that would appeal to the votes that got her there. Among those are Perry's who enthusiastically supported her in the bye-election, and who I would have thought feels somewhat underwhelmed with her performance since.

I'd agree that Joe's seat is the only of the 4 that's safe. FF are depending on a recovery to take a seat, FG are depending on enough of the by-election vote sticking (and it often doesn't). SF are hardest to call, but I agree they may do better with Burke gone. MOS is not safe and will struggle, but as an Indo will do well on transfers if she's still in the mix.

I can see it go, LP, SF, and a battle for the last two seats between LP2, FG, MOS and FF, probably with one from LP2/MOS and one from FF/FG.

[Crannog]

Not a bad analysis. I think Clancy (assuming she's LP2) will win or lose depending on the general swing to LP. In normal circumstances where LP was at about 10% nationally, I'd see her get about 6-7% and Joe double that. The question is whether that national vote in the polls holds, and whether it translates here. Obviously some of it would, and the Q would be how much.

I'm no longer on the ground there, but I do wonder what will happen with the Gregory vote, and to a certain extent the vote Cieran Perry took in the locals. MOS is surely vulnerable to the charge that she's been saving Cowen's bacon in the Dail divisions, not something that would appeal to the votes that got her there. Among those are Perry's who enthusiastically supported her in the bye-election, and who I would have thought feels somewhat underwhelmed with her performance since.

I'd agree that Joe's seat is the only of the 4 that's safe. FF are depending on a recovery to take a seat, FG are depending on enough of the by-election vote sticking (and it often doesn't). SF are hardest to call, but I agree they may do better with Burke gone. MOS is not safe and will struggle, but as an Indo will do well on transfers if she's still in the mix.

I can see it go, LP, SF, and a battle for the last two seats between LP2, FG, MOS and FF, probably with one from LP2/MOS and one from FF/FG.

Id largely agree with that outcome if it goes another 12 to 18 months. The cabra end should be interesting as i believe perry will be running which will hurt MOS on the first count. I believe keogh will be putting his weight behind Mary lou at that end of the constituency as well.

[Ronanh87]

[QUOTE=livingstone;2957602]Ronan, Bacik's not running here. Labour's candidates will be Costello and Clancy.

I think Bacik will run here she ran here in the by election and Ruairi Quinn isnt going to let her run alongside him so its here or nowhere for her or have you a strong source otherwise.

She got 17% share in byelection. There is also a lack of women candidates in the constituency to Baciks favour. O'Sullivan is very vulnerable she has'nt done anything since elected a very weak voice for the electorate.

[Blanchinner]

[quote=Ronanh87;2968003]

Ronan, Bacik's not running here. Labour's candidates will be Costello and Clancy.

I think Bacik will run here she ran here in the by election and Ruairi Quinn isnt going to let her run alongside him so its here or nowhere for her or have you a strong source otherwise.

She got 17% share in byelection. There is also a lack of women candidates in the constituency to Baciks favour. O'Sullivan is very vulnerable she has'nt done anything since elected a very weak voice for the electorate.

lack of women Candidates, MOS sitting td and Vice president of Sinn fein, Mary lou Mc Donald,

[Red_93]

lack of women Candidates, MOS sitting td and Vice president of Sinn fein, Mary lou Mc Donald,

Yes, and Áine Clancy also happens to be a woman - it'd be fairly mean to call your son Áine.
@ Ronanh87 Bacik was only ran because there was no-one else available at the time. The only sitting cllr at the time who planned on running again in a ward in the constituency was Joe Costelloe's wife - and family tickets don't work which would have caused problems at the next GE had she won (quite possible). Bacik does not live in the constituency and has the complete opposite appeal to what most voters in DC go for. The fact that she got 17% in the bye-election really does say something good for labour in Dublin Central. Clancy is from the area, on the ground, a good vote getter ( particularly for a first timer) and geographically separated from Costelloe. She is the best for the job if labour are to come anywhere near 2 seats in DC.

[Blanchinner]

Is it a cert that Bertie( "me and Gilligan, we wun it on the hosses") won't run again. he can spot an earner a mile away , and being an absent TD is a great earner,!

[dotski_w_]

Id largely agree with that outcome if it goes another 12 to 18 months. The cabra end should be interesting as i believe perry will be running which will hurt MOS on the first count. I believe keogh will be putting his weight behind Mary lou at that end of the constituency as well.

Perry running would be VERY interesting. He'd stop a fair bit of the Keogh vote going to Mary Lou, most of that is just a working-class Cabra vote and it's not like Cieran isn't as republican as Mary-Lou! he'd also eat into Fitzpatrick's vote a bit (possibly enough to stop FF getting the seat), into MOS's vote (particularly if Joe Mooney in East Wall supports him, as I suspect he would) - he might even take some of Donoghue's vote, and be a spoiler for him. Would also take votes from Clancy (assuming she's the LP2 candidate)

He'd be very far from a cert, but I could see him in the mix. And even if he didn't win, his entry could change the dynamic significantly. There's a lot of Ahern votes across the constituency looking for new homes, and this will be a very hard one to call.

[dotski_w_]

I think Bacik will run here she ran here in the by election and Ruairi Quinn isnt going to let her run alongside him so its here or nowhere for her or have you a strong source otherwise.

She got 17% share in byelection. There is also a lack of women candidates in the constituency to Baciks favour. O'Sullivan is very vulnerable she has'nt done anything since elected a very weak voice for the electorate.

I heard someone very close to her ruling it out, so i think she won't be running. Pity, as I think she would pull in other votes to the LP ticket that Joe wouldn't, maybe more than anyone else, but I guess you can only seek nominations in so many areas before looking desperate.

I wouldn't write her off being picked as Gilmore's running mate in D/L just yet, mind....

[taurus]

The Shinners are doin some work across the constituency. Seems that Burke leavin the party has galvanised those who never liked Christy. He was only "Sinn Fein " at election times, using the apparatus and resources to get his council seat.If SF can eat into Maureen O Sullivans vote , then Mary Lou has a great chance of a seat here. FF are in for some hammering with no Bertie to save them , or will he stand, for the good of the "Party" !!! Will be a facinating contest !!!

[JoseyWhales]

I think you have all got it wrong and are totally misinformed on politics in the DC area.

Firstly in regards Maureen'O Sullivan, she was seen as being the carrier of the legacy of Tony Gregory, and thats why she received such a huge count in votes, but unfortunately she has proved to be very ineffective in the area, nearly non-existent outside her own little stomping ground of East Wall and the North-East Inner city, I have never once heard her present or had anything to do with the likes of Cabra, Glasnevin, Stoneybatter etc, so I think this will make peoples minds up come election time.

Donohue gives off the impression of a man who is active and there for the people, but unfortunately Dublin Central has never been favourable to the likes of Fine Gael or other right/conservative parties, they are seen as 'snobby' by a constituency which are mainly bread and butter salt of the earth types, which is why the likes of Bertie and Independents always do well.

Sinn Fein are finished in DC, across the country they are seen as a party with only relevance in the North and nothing to offer the South, Sinn Feins biggest mistake they ever made in politics down here was putting Mary Lou into DC, it upset the SF loyalists particularly in Cabra who were loyal to Nicky Keogh not for being a Shinner but because of his popularity in the are through GAA and his anti-drug activism of the past, Mary Lou's presence in DC has destroyed them in the area

Fianna Fail will do poorly based on the mess they have made of the country and the resentment shown by the public towards them.

If I was to call it Id say Joe Costello easily in first place

Possibility of Bertie running again and if so 2nd place, purely for being Bertie.

3rd would go to Labour if they confident enough to introduce another candidate Costello can help carry with him, possibly Bacik

Possibility of an independent getting the 4th seat from the protest vote, Christy Burke will get it, he seems be flying now he cast off the shackles of Sinn Fein