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About LinkBacksOn our street (Navan Road area) we've received the usual political leaflets in the door, but to date have not had one politician calling at the door?!!
On our street (Navan Road area) we've received the usual political leaflets in the door, but to date have not had one politician calling at the door?!!
Yeah.Originally Posted by Crannog
That's right.
second wave of labour posters around d7 today all seem to be for clancy.. the push is on !!
They traditionally dont vote in any great numbers and a few of Joes regular people are now with Mary Lou. Surprised to see her poster in one of there windows.
interesting stat. proposed canvass for mary lou for that area for 2 hours, took 4.... could be a clincher...
There was a report on the area on the Pat Kenny show this morning- just about McDonald and FitzPatrick.
RT.ie Media Player: RTÉ Radio 1
The reporter felt that the dislike that the FF'ers fell for Mary Lou was as nothing compared to the hatred felt by Mary Fitzptrick's canvassers for Cyprian Brady.
Missed it earlier on, glad I catched it. Makes you think about what Bertie REALLY did for the Ballybough Area.
I agree with the Death Penalty to show people it's wrong to kill.
OK I've spent the last four days in Dublin Central, going all over the constituency, from Ballbough, North Stand, North Wall, Stoneybatter, Cabra Navan Road and North Inner City. I've spoken to politically engagd people from all shades and there now seems to be a level of consensus.
Costello will top the poll, but there is a fear that such is the fragmentation on the left that he will just about get a quota, or may even fall short on the first count. His running mate Aine Clancy seems to be way down the list and may well be behind O'Sullivan, McDonald and (perhaps even) Burke on the first count. With few Costello transfers coming her way, even Labour people are conceeding (off the record) that she hasn't a hope, at the moment. There has been a huge poster push for Clancy in the last 72 hours to try and balance the ticket a bit better, but it's likely to be too little too late.
Behind Costello will be Donohoe, O'Sullivan and McDonald. All will be close to one another, but none seems to have a quota and all will be depending on transfers. Donohoe and O'Sullivan's profiles are higher because of the by-election and both are far more transfer friendly than McDonald, so they should both get elected, but it may take a few counts and neither will have many surplus votes to distribute.
In FF, there is no qustion that Fitzpatrick is way ahead of Brady. Fitzpatrick has the west of the constituency to herself and she will pull a huge vote out of west Cabra and the Navan Road. The question is where she gets transfers from. Brady is making little impact around Drumcondra and only born and bred FFers will be giving him their #1. He may get over 1-1.5k votes, but that's about it. However as these are hardcore FFers and they should all transfer to Fitzpatrick. However FFers are admitting that they think Mary F is up against it as this will only be her major transfer input.
Then there are two "rogue factors" to consider; Christy Burke and what I will call an "ABSF" vote. Burke's campaign got off to a slow start but he has gained momentum in the past week. He is known on the ground, admired as a hard worker and has an element of a personal vote. He will however be behind McDonald on the first count and he won't be getting a huge amount of early transfers. If however he can stay in the race for 5-6 counts, then there's certainly a "ABSF" vote that could cause an upset.
Several people that I have spoken to have indicated that they will use their lower preferences to give votes to ALL other candidates bar McDonald, in an effort to stop her taking a seat. FG and Labour voters are even talking about giving Fitzpatrick a transfer and FFers and Labour are talking about giving late transfers to Burke.
So assuming that Burke does go out before McDonald and that Fitzpatrick is still in the race at that stage (which I think is how it will pan out) it will be interesting to see how Burke's votes go, considering a section of them will be originally from other parties but ended up with him in later eliminations and surplus transfers.
Right now I would call the last seat for McDonald, but with SF's poll ratings going into decline, as they did in 2007, it's far from certain. SF have lost all the bonus they got from Doherty and Adams publicity and they are back to just a point or two above where they were at the same stage in 2007 (10% vs 8%). If that decline continues (and there's very little that I can see that would stop it) then McDonald is far from secure and FF, Burke or even Labour at a stretch (if they can balance their ticket) could thwart her.
Last edited by Keith-M; 13th February 2011 at 11:39 AM.
The Mahon Tribunal found Olivia Mitchell to have received an inappropriate payment from Frank Dunlop at the time of the 1992 Election. F.G. Gael has taken no action against her.
You are not and never have been an unbiased political observer, you might as well put this in the zoo section.
Four Days in the constituency.
That's an admission that you don't live in the place you intend to vote.
And yet you bend over backwards trying to justify your flagrant intention to break the law.
Why should anyone pay any attention to what you say?
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