You're right, one each however the last seat will be a fight between Labour and O'Sullivan, not SF and O'Sullivan. Christy Burke has since left SF and so I think the SF will be quickly eliminated and the transfers will go mainly to Labour or O'Sullivan.
Here's the detailed analysis on my blogDublin Central | David Higgins
O Sullivan has been very poor, and it did'nt go down to well in east wall ,her home patch, when she voted with the Gov. on a number of occasions. She has expressed a desire to go back to teaching ,according to close friends. her seat is defo a left wing seat and Mary Lou has a very strong chance of taking it. Christy Burke won't run due to lack of resources. He's making a nice earner from the council and this siuts him !!Originally Posted by davehiggz
You're right, one each however the last seat will be a fight between Labour and O'Sullivan, not SF and O'Sullivan. Christy Burke has since left SF and so I think the SF will be quickly eliminated and the transfers will go mainly to Labour or O'Sullivan.
Here's the detailed analysis on my blog
Labour's second candidate will be Aine Clancy from Cabra Glasnevin
'I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts' -Mark Twain
never heard of her , is she a Cllr at the Mo .?
She should eat into Donohoe's and Fitzpatrick's votes. She is probably the only person there who has the potential to stop Mary Fitz taking a seat (probably won't but anyway).
Last edited by Red_93; 29th August 2010 at 02:09 PM.
Will bertie stand , IYO, ?
Costello is totally safe and Donohue will probably take a seat too even though he's no great shakes. Enough people will vote FG to get FF out.
O'Sullivan will retain her seat although on a much reduced vote. She's no Gregory and the votes that she's cast in support of the government haven't helped her but I don't believe they've hurt her that badly either, particularly since she's rowed back from those positions more recently. She's still a safe enough candidate for everyone to give a high preference to which means she'll get in at least on transfers if not on #1s.
As for the last seat, I think Fitzpatrick has performed well enough as a councillor, and is sufficiently detached from St Luke's, to get in on a combination of the dyed-in-the-wool FF vote (which is still mind boggingly high in this constituency) and those who'd otherwise look elsewhere for a protest vote.
MLM has been in the constituency a lot and is building a base for future elections but I think the next one is too soon. Burke and the other independents won't be in the race (though he will eat at MLM's vote).
Christian Solidarity Party and Immigrant Control Platform will be humiliated again, and will hopefully give up and go home.
Is Patrick Maphoso a citizen yet? Not that he has any chance of a seat, just wondering if he can run.
Prediction: Lab1, FG1, Ind1 and FF1 if Mary Fitzpatrick is the candidate, otherwise probably Clancy.
I have heard that Burke won't stand.The election is probably goin to happen in the spring ,IMO. mary Lou has indeed been building and O'Sullivan is most definitly not been on the ground atall. will bertie stand or not ,if not i think FF will struggle, tho i think he will stand to keep the seat and then just bugger off into the sunset with the money. I am aware that FG are putting a lot of Money into the area.
If Mary Lou really is committed to Dub central, she'll run in the 2014 LEs.
He says that every year. I'd take it with a pinch of salt. Anyway, it won't make a huge amount of difference to the outcome whether he does or not.
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