Cork East

[davehiggz]

Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork East First Preference Votes

There are boundary changes in this constituency as laid out in the Constituency Commission Report.

Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour

David Stanton FG and Sean Sherlock of Labour certain to retain their seats and they'll probably poll higher than 3rd and 4th place as was the case in 07.

Ned O'Keeffe and Michael Ahern won't keep both their seats and there's really no calling which one of them will hold their seat.

FG will take the spare FF seat and this will certainly go to Paul Bradford. He was a TD there in the 27th and 28th Dáil however he lost elections to the 29th and 30th Dáil. In both cases he came 5th place. He is now in the Seanad but he is only 45.

I predict: 2 FG, 1 Labour and 1 FF.

[The Dude]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Bradford WONT take a seat.

[davehiggz]

haha yeah, couldn't have seen that one coming to be fair!

But, my call is still in play for 2 FG, 1FF and 1Lab,

at the time I obviously overlooked Sinn Féin and they could be trouble for FF but I think FF will probably come through in the end,

although if things are in any way similar to Cork North Central, Sandra McLellan could be within a chance....

[Podolski1.5]

Ned isn't standing. His son Kevin is standing in his place. It's looking like FF will definitely lose 1 seat. I think McLellan has a good chance. Mulvihill is a poor candidate for Labour. He's not popular, not even in his adopted home of Cobh. I think it's Stanton and Sherlock as definites. Probably 1 FF - hard to know which and then a fight between Mulvihill and McLellan for last seat

[bluestripe]

Cork East is a constituency of two parts, usually 2 seats north and 2 east. If Ahern and Mclellan get a seat each then Stanton could be in trouble. Even if the FF vote since 2007 drops by 50% FF will still have a quota. Sherlock will get elected as he is the strongest in the north and one of the FG will also get elected in the north of the constituency. If Mclellan is doing as well as people say then she could soak up transfers from O' Keeffe(republican vote) and from Mulvihill (left vote). Ahern lives closer to Cobh than Stanton so he will also soak up Mulvihill transfers. Cork East not certain yet>

[RepublicanSocialist1798]

Irish Times are calling it: 2FG 1 Lab 1 SF which is a bit surprising.

[Lycurgus]

Cork East is a constituency of two parts, usually 2 seats north and 2 east. If Ahern and Mclellan get a seat each then Stanton could be in trouble. Even if the FF vote since 2007 drops by 50% FF will still have a quota. Sherlock will get elected as he is the strongest in the north and one of the FG will also get elected in the north of the constituency. If Mclellan is doing as well as people say then she could soak up transfers from O' Keeffe(republican vote) and from Mulvihill (left vote). Ahern lives closer to Cobh than Stanton so he will also soak up Mulvihill transfers. Cork East not certain yet>

Absurd! Stanton is as close to a certainty as there ever was. 2 north (Sherlock & 1 FG) 2 south (Stanton & Ahern)

[Sassy Susie]

Well Well Well, you were all wrong and the best man got in on the last seat .............a woman !!! great stuff Sandra

[eastcorklocal]

Sinn Fein are looking very strong in Youghal thanks to Sandra Mclellan's election success and in only a few short years hats off.

[Murph]

We 'All' werent wrong Sussie!