National Opinion Polls versus Constituency Opinion Polls

[gear one]

After recent national Opinion Polls seem to have Fianna Fail averaging about 40% compared to Fine Gael on about 23%(With Labour down to about 11%) It would seem that five more years of Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Government is well on the cards.


But............................................... ..................


There have now been four Nuacht TG4 Constituency Opinion Polls which suggest a completely different outcome. Lets take a look at them.

Mayo. With a bit of vote managment Fine Gael have a very strong chance of taking 3 seats. It would be almost unprecedented for a party not to take three seats from a Five Seat Constituency with 53% of the vote.
Likely Outcome 1FF 3FG 1Ind

Clare. Fianna Fail are on 42% here but with Tony Killeen on 25%, the party could shoot themselves in the foot with Bad Vote Management. Fine Gael are on a healthy 33% with a much better vote management stategy. With James Breen(Ind) certain to get a seat, some (Shannon Blueshirt) believe the party are on course to nick a second seat at Fianna Fail's expense. However Fine Gael's problem here is the four candidate strategy which will probably be their undoing.

Likely Outcome 2FF 1FG 1Ind
Possible Outcome 1FF 2FG 1Ind

Galway West. Obviously the best Constituency Poll for Fianna Fail and worst for Fine Gael so far. On 48% Fianna Fail have a live chance of three seats with Fine Gael fighting for one. I know I predicted FF/PD to get three seats and Fine Gael to get none on a previous thread but now I'd like to reconsider. 15% is probably enough (just) for Fine Gael to snatch a seat possibly at the expense of Grealish. (Especially if the PDs are running multiple candidates again. 9% not enough) O'Brolchain as Mayor of the City in the run up to the election should see him make it. FF to just miss out on three seats too.

Likely Outcome. 2FF 1FG 1Lb 1GP

Wexford. So after all the talk the PDs are also rans in this Constituency. On the Nuacht figures, It appears Fianna Fail & Fine Gael can both be happy with both extreamly likely to take two seats. Despite poor vote managment again Fianna Fail are dead certs for two seats on 41%. On the figures given, this constituency is easy to predict.

Likely Outcome 2FF 2FG 1Lb


Verdict

Well, elections are won and lost in 44 constituencies up and down the country. Going by the First Four Opinion Polls the contest is alive and kicking. As for the Junior Coalition Parties, Labour are holding up well and the PDs are struggling.
So the outlook on the four Nuacht TG4 Constituency Polls so far is...........

Fianna Fail 7
Fine Gael 7
Labour 2
Greens 1
PDs 0
SF 0
Ind 2

FF/PD 7 seats FG/Lb/(GP) 9/10 seats

with the possibility (on a good day for the alternative gvt. admitadly)of

Fianna Fail 6
Fine Gael 8
Labour 2
Greens 1
PD 0
SF 0
Ind 2

FF/PD 6 Seats FG/Lb/(GP) 10/11 seats

[rover]

some good points here.

if there had been a surge in the fianna fail vote, and a collapse in the fine gael/labour vote, as many delusional contributors are adamant, then you would expect this to show - especially in a fairly volatile constituency like wexford.

instead there is big advances in the fg/labour support in wexford - and howlin/michael D. both increasing their support from last time.

something tells me that if all this bull about labour support collapsing was true then it would show up in some measure in support for 2 of their most hight profile TDs but instead the opposite is happening

correct me if i;m wrong but werent all these polls taken after bertie's grubby money came to light? and they show:

mayo: big surge for fine gael, grave ff weakness

galway west: same as last election really, except that michael d higgins seems to have strengthened his position

clare: same as last election really

wexford: big surge for fine gael and labour

so even though the national polls show up ff strength and fg/labour weakness, its simply not showing up on the ground

[FutureTaoiseach]

After recent national Opinion Polls seem to have Fianna Fail averaging about 40% compared to Fine Gael on about 23%(With Labour down to about 11%) It would seem that five more years of Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Government is well on the cards.


But............................................... ..................


There have now been four Nuacht TG4 Constituency Opinion Polls which suggest a completely different outcome. Lets take a look at them.

Mayo. With a bit of vote managment Fine Gael have a very strong chance of taking 3 seats. It would be almost unprecedented for a party not to take three seats from a Five Seat Constituency with 53% of the vote.
Likely Outcome 1FF 3FG 1Ind

Clare. Fianna Fail are on 42% here but with Tony Killeen on 25%, the party could shoot themselves in the foot with Bad Vote Management. Fine Gael are on a healthy 33% with a much better vote management stategy. With James Breen(Ind) certain to get a seat, some (Shannon Blueshirt) believe the party are on course to nick a second seat at Fianna Fail's expense. However Fine Gael's problem here is the four candidate strategy which will probably be their undoing.

Likely Outcome 2FF 1FG 1Ind
Possible Outcome 1FF 2FG 1Ind

Galway West. Obviously the best Constituency Poll for Fianna Fail and worst for Fine Gael so far. On 48% Fianna Fail have a live chance of three seats with Fine Gael fighting for one. I know I predicted FF/PD to get three seats and Fine Gael to get none on a previous thread but now I'd like to reconsider. 15% is probably enough (just) for Fine Gael to snatch a seat possibly at the expense of Grealish. (Especially if the PDs are running multiple candidates again. 9% not enough) O'Brolchain as Mayor of the City in the run up to the election should see him make it. FF to just miss out on three seats too.

Likely Outcome. 2FF 1FG 1Lb 1GP

Wexford. So after all the talk the PDs are also rans in this Constituency. On the Nuacht figures, It appears Fianna Fail & Fine Gael can both be happy with both extreamly likely to take two seats. Despite poor vote managment again Fianna Fail are dead certs for two seats on 41%. On the figures given, this constituency is easy to predict.

Likely Outcome 2FF 2FG 1Lb


Verdict

Well, elections are won and lost in 44 constituencies up and down the country. Going by the First Four Opinion Polls the contest is alive and kicking. As for the Junior Coalition Parties, Labour are holding up well and the PDs are struggling.
So the outlook on the four Nuacht TG4 Constituency Polls so far is...........

Fianna Fail 7
Fine Gael 7
Labour 2
Greens 1
PDs 0
SF 0
Ind 2

FF/PD 7 seats FG/Lb/(GP) 9/10 seats

with the possibility (on a good day for the alternative gvt. admitadly)of

Fianna Fail 6
Fine Gael 8
Labour 2
Greens 1
PD 0
SF 0
Ind 2

FF/PD 6 Seats FG/Lb/(GP) 10/11 seats

On Galway West I don't agree. The TG4 poll showed heavy transfers not only from FF but also from FG (Healy-Eames) to Grealish. There is a strong tradition of a PD seat here and the Molloy machine will ensure he holds on. 9% could well be enough if he is the only candidate. I have read recently that it is thought likely the party will run a second candidate but probably not a 3rd unlike 2002. I personally would advise a single-candidate strategy, but I still feel they are likely to hold this seat provided transfers to them remain strong. The commentary on the poll is that Grealish is likely to retain his seat, and that is my belief. I also expect that they will hold on in other traditional PD areas.

Your portrayal of the meaning of the existing polls flies in the face of logic in some cases - notably in Mayo and Clare where you are giving FG 3/2 seats in spite of evidence to the contrary. The TNS/MRBI poll gives FG only 1 seat in Clare because of a ludicrous 4 candidate strategy which makes no sense in a 4-seater. Pat Breen may hold his seat - if not damaged by the recent controversy over drink-driving - but the party will not make any seat-gains. FF holding on impressively here in terms of vote-share for its candidates. Mayo is hardly representative given the huge rumpus over Corrib for the past year or two. Not to mention being the Opposition leader's constituency where you would expect him to do well. FF on 21% is doing far better in the FG leader's constituency than FG are doing in Bertie's constituency, which is a credit to the resilience of support for the govt.

so even though the national polls show up ff strength and fg/labour weakness, its simply not showing up on the ground

I disagree strongly. Positive poll-ratings for FG in some parts of the country are strongly counterbalanced in most Dublin constituencies polled so far, specifically Dublin SE (8%) and Dublin Central (8%) and by the recent Red C poll showing FG on a miserable 3rd place in the capital. It's Wexford poll-rating is still miserable by historical standards when you consider they are on 31% now compared to 38% in 1997. On the combined FG-Lab vote, it was also ahead of FF in 1997 but FF retained its 2 seats. Indeed it has usually been ahead of FG-Lab. Remember that 40% = 2/5's. FF will hold its 2 seats. If FG and Labour have made gains here, they are at the expense of the "Independent" vote at the last election. Liam Twomey's personal vote has become incorporated into the FG vote here and I wouldn't go extrapolating for the national performance of FG from this poll.

[pfkf]

I disagree strongly. Positive poll-ratings for FG in some parts of the country are strongly counterbalanced in most Dublin constituencies polled so far, specifically Dublin SE (8%) and Dublin Central (8%) and by the recent Red C poll showing FG on a miserable 3rd place in the capital. It's Wexford poll-rating is still miserable by historical standards when you consider they are on 31% now compared to 38% in 1997. On the combined FG-Lab vote, it was also ahead of FF in 1997 but FF retained its 2 seats. Indeed it has usually been ahead of FG-Lab. Remember that 40% = 2/5's. FF will hold its 2 seats. If FG and Labour have made gains here, they are at the expense of the "Independent" vote at the last election. Liam Twomey's personal vote has become incorporated into the FG vote here and I wouldn't go extrapolating for the national performance of FG from this poll.[/quote]


It may be true that FG have been pushed down into 3rd place in the capital, on 16%, FG currently hold 3 seats in Dublin, That is going to increase, and you are forgetting FG are always underestimated in the polls. It seems to me that local constituency polls are begining to reflect that people in local areas were not happy about Ahern and his dodgey dealings, and are not happy with the performance of this Govt - for example the health service as in most of these polls the health service comes out as the most important issue

[FutureTaoiseach]

It may be true that FG have been pushed down into 3rd place in the capital, on 16%, FG currently hold 3 seats in Dublin, That is going to increase, and you are forgetting FG are always underestimated in the polls. It seems to me that local constituency polls are begining to reflect that people in local areas were not happy about Ahern and his dodgey dealings, and are not happy with the performance of this Govt - for example the health service as in most of these polls the health service comes out as the most important issue

59% in national polls cited it as the most important issue in 2002 and remember what happened.

[KeithM]

Some very selective posting going on here; no reference to Dublin South East or Central where FG are down to single figures. No mention of BCF taking votes from FF to Ind or Toomey taking Ind votes into FG, thereby distorting any national trend.

[gear one]

Future Taoiseach, I did not give Fine Gael a second seat in Clare. I said the likely outcome was 2FF 1FG 1Ind with only an outside chance of a second FG seat.
With regards to your conviction that Fianna Fail on 21%(I think their on a little bit more) in Mayo (Enda's Home) compared to Fine Gael on 8% in Dublin Central (Bertie's Home) portrays an admirable result for FF, It is true to say that FG are competing against SF, Lab & the GP as well as FF in Dublin Central whereas in Mayo FF don't have to compete against so many political parties. Also (Despite getting two seats there in 1982Nov) Fine Gael are historically very weak in Dublin Central long before Bertie was leader. Eg 1987 Election. FF got 3 seats with the PDs taking 1 and Tony Gregory the other. Fianna Fail in Mayo back then had 4 out of 6 seats, and did so until Michael Ring won the By-Election in 1994.

[gear one]

Some very selective posting going on here; no reference to Dublin South East or Central where FG are down to single figures. No mention of BCF taking votes from FF to Ind or Toomey taking Ind votes into FG, thereby distorting any national trend.

When Nuacht TG4 Opinion Polls come out on some of these Dublin Constituencies (Ones that I can actually find a link too) I'll comment on them. If they suggest poor Fine Gael/Labour Results and Strong Fianna Fail/PD results I'll accept that.

[KingKane]

Fact is (and it was Sean Fleming that mentioned it on the WiP) that the headliner in most constituencies is getting an unrealistic boost in the local polls, such as Killeen and Browne. John O'Donoghue was saying the same thing last night, these polls are affected by a name recognition factor that gives the dominant person in the consistuency a boost which does not pan out when it comes to the actual vote (in part because of campaign strategies or just local factors). FF will not have Browne or Killeen hoovering up that much of their vote come election time. Of course, not all of that managed vote will go where it is intended but most of it will.

[KeithM]

Fact is (and it was Sean Fleming that mentioned it on the WiP) that the headliner in most constituencies is getting an unrealistic boost in the local polls, such as Killeen and Browne. John O'Donoghue was saying the same thing last night, these polls are affected by a name recognition factor that gives the dominant person in the consistuency a boost which does not pan out when it comes to the actual vote (in part because of campaign strategies or just local factors). FF will not have Browne or Killeen hoovering up that much of their vote come election time. Of course, not all of that managed vote will go where it is intended but most of it will.

Here I would agree, and I would also say that Kenny, Ring and Bertie Ahern are also showing too high in their constituency polls for the same reason.