Where now for the opposition?

[KeithM]

Another weekend has brought another disasterous poll for FG and Labour. There is now little or no prospect of the two parties forming the next government and indeed seat losses by both parties could be in prospect. When one considers that a voter friendly budget, maturing SSIAs and potential implementation of a new agreement in Northern Ireland, things could get even worse and just like in 2002, it appears that the public is about to hand a resounding rejection to the opposition, so what, if anything, can they do to turn things around?

Mass decapitation may grab headlines, but is it too late to bed down new leaders in time for the election?

Announcing a common platform might fill the huge policy void, but it also gives the government the chance to find holes and sink that platform months before the election.

Or should the opposition just sit tight and hope for another banana skin to hit the government, and hope that next time out they don't actually help Bertie to get back on his feet?

In short is there ANY hope for FG and Labour :

[Fine Gael for government]

There's like 8 months to the election and it's all to play for.

For over 2 years the electorate were openly flirting witht he idea of electing an FG/Labour coalition. There has been a sudden blip, but winning these people back to the alternative will be easier than was attracting them in the first place. I think FG have to step up campaigningonce more. Rip-off Ireland and safestreets gained the party a lot of support. I think that when a joint platform is announced by FG/Lab people will once more realise that unlike 2002, a genuine alternative is on offer.

I believe that the closer we get to the election, the more voters will baulke at the idea of giving 15years to Fianna Fail/PDs.

All to play for, I'm sure that the opposition have a few more cards to play yet.

[codology]

no

[codology]

no

[President Bartlet]

The reality is that by this stage in an election cycle - the alternative govt should be in the lead. The shifting up of campaign into should have already begun - should be in 4th gear by know will going into 5th when the Dail is disolved. Instead they are stuck in first and even seem to be heading for reserve.
They still do not look or act like an alternative and the electorate will almost certainly say better the devil ya know and return FF/PDs to power.
Its not over yet, but if thi secanrio is being played out by Feb/March 2007, then i think they can forget about it.

[Catalpa]

Another weekend has brought another disasterous poll for FG and Labour. There is now little or no prospect of the two parties forming the next government and indeed seat losses by both parties could be in prospect. When one considers that a voter friendly budget, maturing SSIAs and potential implementation of a new agreement in Northern Ireland, things could get even worse and just like in 2002, it appears that the public is about to hand a resounding rejection to the opposition, so what, if anything, can they do to turn things around?

Mass decapitation may grab headlines, but is it too late to bed down new leaders in time for the election?

Announcing a common platform might fill the huge policy void, but it also gives the government the chance to find holes and sink that platform months before the election.

Or should the opposition just sit tight and hope for another banana skin to hit the government, and hope that next time out they don't actually help Bertie to get back on his feet?

In short is there ANY hope for FG and Labour :

The worst thing they could now would be to chop heads and engage in internal bloodletting.

They certainly need a coherent policy programme and more alternative policies rather then the 'we would do basically the same only better than the FF/PDs can'

It's true though if there is to be a change then it's a case of the Government losing it rather tha the opposition winning it.

Dig the dirt on Bertie and screw him to the wall - they just had him in a corner and flunked it - he just walked away!

Learn from your mistakes.

Kill Bertie and it's yours Lads!

[codology]

Is this the enda Enda,will Pat be forced to stop Rabbitting on,could the Seargent be promoted to general.

[rockofcashel]

There's like 8 months to the election and it's all to play for.

For over 2 years the electorate were openly flirting witht he idea of electing an FG/Labour coalition. There has been a sudden blip, but winning these people back to the alternative will be easier than was attracting them in the first place. I think FG have to step up campaigningonce more. Rip-off Ireland and safestreets gained the party a lot of support. I think that when a joint platform is announced by FG/Lab people will once more realise that unlike 2002, a genuine alternative is on offer.

I believe that the closer we get to the election, the more voters will baulke at the idea of giving 15years to Fianna Fail/PDs.

All to play for, I'm sure that the opposition have a few more cards to play yet.

Why do you, and so many other FG posters, and FG members right up to Enda Kenny, party leader, persist with this nonsense of "the closer we get to the election, the more voters will baulke at the idea of giving 15years to Fianna Fail/PDs."

Irish voters have heretofore proven themselves to be amongst, if not the, most conservative voters in the world.

They didn't have a problem with giving FF's first government 16 straight years in power.

Nor DeV's and Lemass' second administration.

And currently, apart for Springs blip in '94 they've been electing FF lead governments for the past 20 years.

Look at local council results. County Council results.

Invariably incumbents win, time after time after time, often with seats changing only when a member retires or dies.

People will not switch from FF to FG unless FG offer them something more than, "we'll do the same thing, only more efficiently"

So far, thats the only message that the Alternative are giving.

Time after time we hear Enda and Pat talk about things like:

Tax: We're not going to raise any taxes, or introduce new ones (FF/PD policy)

Health: We'll take on the vested interests (but no plan upfront telling us how or why)

Public Spending: We'll control it, but we'll spend loads of money where its needed (contradiction in terms ?)

Crime: We'll have thousands of more Gardai (without increasing public spending mind, or raising taxes, or building new training facilities)

Social Welfare: Loads more money for pensioners and recipients of public welfare (but no extra taxes to raise it)

And on, and on, and on

And then they've fallen into the trap of being political followers, not leaders.

Mc Dowell pulls a populist policy out his hat with the stamp duty proposals. So FG start on about stamp duty, A MONTH AND A HALF LATER.

Bertie slaps restrictions on work for Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants. Enda follows his lead, contradicting his earlier position.

When they finally do come up with a populist policy i.e drunk tanks, they get slapped down by Labour, negating the benefit of the populism, and showing their core supporters i.e. law and order "blueshirts", that the smaller partner will be calling the shots. Hell, there's a case to be made for saying that FG's turnaround in the polls stems not from Bertiegate, but from the realisation amongst some possible "returnees from the PD's" looking at the drunk tank U-Turn, and deciding to leave FG support for good.

FG for government, is so far, a bag of wind.

[rover]

it amazes me to see people declare that the election is over, on the back of 2 good opinion polls for fianna fail....which followed on from a straight run of 18 disastrous ones

are people really that naive? (keith, no need for you to answer that)

[Worldbystorm]

Good points ROC, and I meant to say on another thread you're dead right, Enda Kenny has been a great leader for FG, but not so much as an opposition candidate for Taoiseach. He's enervated the party, reorganised it and given it a real shot at significantly increasing it's representation. These are clear achievements and mark a break with the previous situation. But they're not enough, and short of a Fitzgerald like charismatic it's hard to see who else could do better than he has. And his problem has been in one respect Labour weakness, the lack of attractiveness of the Kenny/Rabbitte combination and the charisma of the incumbent plus a fear of change.

I also agree that the 15 years argument holds no water. So far it's less than 9, possibly the best 9 years for this state in it's history despite the obvious problems and faults of the government. To go against that is difficult, very difficult. To say it's 15 is in theory correct, but people's experience is only of 9. Hence the hesitancy of the opposition in terms of policies because what can they realistically say that will have a greater resonance than the incumbents...

I genuinely find the position of the opposition to be very difficult. Little room for movement. But I wouldn't say it's a bag of wind.

I'm always leery about publicising the blog I participate in but there are a few suggestions there as to what FG and Labour might do if they really really really want to get into government, and if you're not pushed to read the full posts I'd summarise them as follows.

1. A reworking of the Inter-Party Coalition of the 1940s and 1950s, which would be extended to pull in independents and others simply as an Anybody but FF front. The rationale - the need to avert 1 and .25% party rule in this state. It might only last a couple of years but it would give FG and Labour a sniff of power for this decade.

2. Approach SF after the election and say we'll accept your external support for our FG/Labour (possibly Green) minority govt. in return for fully working the St. Andrews/GFA, but only in the event of a successful return of the Executive with SF and the DUP working together. Again this is put forward as in the national interest to prevent FF hegemony and sustain the insitutions in the North.

1. is possible, but unlikely. 2. is less possible and very very unlikely...

But both make sense if the name of the game is to push FF from power...