Irish Times TNS/MRBI Poll

[dail usher]

Tonight the RTE news website reports that tomorrow's Irish Times poll shows the following results:

FF 39% +8

FG 26% -2

Lab 11% -4

PDs 4% +1

Greens 6% +1

SF 8% -1

Oths 6% -3

Do the FGers on here believe this is yet another rogue poll??

[Salthill]

This poll, together with the ICM one, would seem to suggest that much of the political wisdom on this site and elsewhere is, to put it politely, not quite as wise as it believes.

[dotski_w_]

Tonight the RTE news website reports that tomorrow's Irish Times poll shows the following results:

FF 39% +8

FG 26% -2

Lab 11% -4

PDs 4% +1

Greens 6% +1

SF 8% -1

Oths 6% -3

Do the FGers on here believe this is yet another rogue poll??

i suppose a big Q is whether the transfers to FF/PD will also be up, stay the same or go down. I suspect that it has seen some of their natural votes come home, but that for example LP voters who may have been unenthusiastic about the mullingar accord are more likely to transfer to the BS. Given that, even with this gr8 poll result for FF/PD they are still way short of the 1st pref vote they need, that puts them in trouble, particularly as they are less likely to get coalition partners from GP/SF/LP, and given this poll shows a dramatic drop in IND voters where thye would also hope for TDs to support them.

[FutureTaoiseach]

[quote=dotski_w_]

Tonight the RTE news website reports that tomorrow's Irish Times poll shows the following results:

FF 39% +8

FG 26% -2

Lab 11% -4

PDs 4% +1

Greens 6% +1

SF 8% -1

Oths 6% -3

Do the FGers on here believe this is yet another rogue poll??

i suppose a big Q is whether the transfers to FF/PD will also be up, stay the same or go down. I suspect that it has seen some of their natural votes come home, but that for example LP voters who may have been unenthusiastic about the mullingar accord are more likely to transfer to the BS. Given that, even with this gr8 poll result for FF/PD they are still way short of the 1st pref vote they need, that puts them in trouble, particularly as they are less likely to get coalition partners from GP/SF/LP, and given this poll shows a dramatic drop in IND voters where thye would also hope for TDs to support them.[/quote:4c9bb06g]

I disagree FF got 77 seats in 1997 on 39.1% of the vote - 6 short of an overall majority. If they do it again then the PDs and Indos would make up the numbers.

[rover]

did all of you not see the thread thats been running on this for the last 3 hours?

[KeithM]

This poll, together with the ICM one, would seem to suggest that much of the political wisdom on this site and elsewhere is, to put it politely, not quite as wise as it believes.

With the exception of the PD vote nothing surprises me here. Obviously "there's no such thing as bad publicity" should be McDowell's new poster slogan.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Maybe this thread should become the sole thread on this poll or else the other one. I nominate the other one because it has more posts but edit its title to the one of this thread here.