Irish Times poll tomorrow:
FF +8%
PD's +1%
FG -2%
Lab - 4%
SF -1%
And this is after Bertiegate, where lies the opposition now, an open goal for two weeks and they are decimated in the polls. Those who said that FG and LAB would be the biggest losers in this affair are now proving to be on the ball.
Would be interesting to see what the party by party figures were on this...Originally Posted by candid
Its an interesting phenomenon all right. I listened to Anton Savage from Carr Communications talk about this on Ryan Tubridy's show this morning.
He began talking about the Irish soccer team and the response by the public at Lansdown Road to the overboard comments about Steve Staunton at the weekend.
Seemingly the Irish public have a low threshold to what the feel is undue criticism being heaped on an individual. He then began talking about Bertie Ahern, and predicted that this would happen, i.e. a FF rise in the polls on the back of the over board criticism of the opposition.
He postulated the theory that in the initial stages of the attack on Bertie, (or Staunton), that they would suffer badly, but if the attack became too sustained, the Irish people would naturally root for the underdog, and would turn on those criticising him. Looks like he was right. The opposition should have stopped when they were ahead, and just left bad feeling hanging over Bertie, rather than pushing it.
Looks like they did more damage to themselves than anything.
1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?
Obviously this isn't a great poll for those that want FF out of power. But as a Green I'm chuffed with our rise to 6% and Trevors gain of 8%. TNS/MRBI has always been quite conservative when it comes to us, so this is great to see.
What were Greens' and Trevor's percentages last time?
I'm delighted by the poll but a little concerned about something in it. Why did RTE say the govt parties have regained their lead? Look closely:
FF: 39%
FG: 26%
Labour 11%
PD: 4%
SF: 8%
Green: 6%
FF-PD: 43%
FG-Lab-Green: 43%
Unless they are excluding the Greens from the equation that is. It is now clear that FG and Labour getting an overall majority between them will only happen when pigs are flying out of Dublin Airport and Ian Paisley is elected Pope. In other words....
But both sides would be on 43% here. Now this should be especially troubling for FG, because TNS/MRBI tends to be very hard on FF yet they are on 39%. They are also likely to be more accurate in predicting FG support. I expect on the basis of these results that FF will return to govt at any rate - probably with the PDs. What's encouraging for the PDs is their 1% rise in support - dispelling the torrent of media villification and doom-mongering that predicted their anhiliation for sticking with FF. Notfor the first time the media are shown as hopelessly out of touch and acting to their own agenda - stopping the Privacy Bill perhaps.
I now urge Bertie to call an early election to capitalise on the public-sympathy presently available as a result of the failed McCartyite-Red Inquisition of recent weeks. The reality is that on 43% each, FF-PD would still have the most seats of the 2 combinations. Reasons? Because transfer patterns between different FF candidates are far more consistent than between the disparate parties of FG-Lab-Greens. You are not going to get 70% transfers between FG and Labour whereas transfer analysis I have seen from the electionsireland.org site between FF candidates is sometimes as high as 70%. I predict a FF-PD Coalition propped up by Independents, but perhaps - just perhaps - with an overall majority. If FF can manage their vote as well as in 1997, where they gained 10 seats (to 77) despite a tiny fall in their vote from 39.5% to 39.3% - then we may very well see a return to the 1997-2002 arrangement.
fianna fail shouldnt be too overjoyed about this. the mrbi had them on 37% last january, but they had plunged back to 31% by the summer thanks to increased exposure in the dail
the pattern is repeating, because they rose to 38% in late 2004, but had plunged back to 32% by the end of that parliamentary term.
ff support has see-sawed with the same pattern since 2002
easy-come, easy go
We were on 5% abd that's now 6%. Trevor was on 35% and is now on 43%What were Greens' and Trevor's percentages last time?
There's a few points to be made here - firstly, as far as I recall the last MRBI poll was taken at the height of the Mr A case scandal, and thus FF's poll rating of 31% then was a reflection of real public anger, rather than a long-term trend. Just as that rating was artificially low, so this one may be artificially high - if, as FT and others suggest, its a "sympathy bounce", then it will fade away with the fading away of the issue that prompted it. Labour will obviously be disappointed with their drop in support, and FG less so with theirs. It may be that Labour have suffered a little from effectively taking the lead in attacking Ahern on the payments issue, while FG's more careful tone may have reflected in Kenny's 2% rise in personal approval.
But the other point to remember is that this is MRBI's first poll since the summer recess, and it effectively shows FG and Labour level with FF - I'd rate the PDs as being less relevant than the Greens in terms of assigning them to one block or another - as with McDowell (already holed below the waterline as a self-styled watchdog) showing a Noonanesque personal rating of 32%, they're heading for at best 4 seats. So the poll says all to play for - and with the way FF support tends to fall during election campaigns, the Opposition will still feel they've got a good chance.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
I think this poll confirms that the 'Teflon Taoiseach' lives on and that Enda Kenny has a serious amount of work to do to win the election - calling for an immediate election on the Week In Politics on Monday night - he might not be so keen just now.
Really is terrible that the opposition have, it seems, made absolutely no capital out of Bertiegate at all - even PDs are up, albeit by 1.
But I think the real reflection will come in the Red C which is a monthly tracker rather then the IT one which is comparing with May - if Red C even mirrors a FF steady hold or slight increase then Enda can forget about being Taoiseach.
Time to get some new tactics me thinks ENDA!
worth noting as well that even though this is the worst poll for the Opposition for 3 years, fine gael/labour/greens are still 6% ahead of their 2002 result
ff/pds (in their best showing for 3 years) are 2% behind their 2002 result
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