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Thread: Odds on when the next GE and Lisbon

  1. #1
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    Odds on when the next GE and Lisbon

    Betfair are showing the following

    lisbon to pass is 4 to 1 on and to fail is 4 to 1 agaisint.

    The GE odds aren't that reliable but they are 11/10 this year, 2/5 next year, 3/1 for 2011 and 5/2 to go the full term.

    Where would you put your money?

  2. #2
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    Those Lisbon odds look tempting. It will be tough for the No side but by no means as long as 4/1.

  3. #3
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    theyre almost as good as ivans last year of 5/1 !

    i'd be tempted but i dont like betfair.

    for what its worth i reckon the 5/2 on the gov lasting till 2012 is great as i dont see these guys going without the aid of dynamite. they'll be slaughtered in ANY election coming so i can see em putting it off for as long as possible so bar a few back benchers croaking it they aint going anywhere.

  4. #4
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    10/1 on

    Paddy Power are now offering 10/1 on that Lisbon will pass. They also have detailed odds on the margin of victory, with 60%-65% seeming to be their best guess at this stage.

    Finnegan’s Take Blog Archive Bookies backing Lisbon - but fear fickle electorate

    But, as noted by other posters, the bookies were way off last time around.

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    Beijing for Beginners: An Irishman in the People's Republic

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by seathestars View Post
    Betfair are showing the following

    lisbon to pass is 4 to 1 on and to fail is 4 to 1 agaisint.

    The GE odds aren't that reliable but they are 11/10 this year, 2/5 next year, 3/1 for 2011 and 5/2 to go the full term.

    Where would you put your money?
    Nothing on betfair.ie but US politics, afaics
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

  6. #6
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    1/10 odds man

    still 5/1 for a no is a fantastic bet so ill be dropping down to me local paddy power shop to see if i can get ANOTER 250 quid out of this referendum

    (figures from paddy powern website)

  7. #7
    He3
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    Vote yourself the money.

  8. #8
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    What odds can you get on Lisbon passing in the 50%-55% range?

    If the odds are against, I reckon it's a good bet.
    My political compass
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    What odds can you get on Lisbon passing in the 50%-55% range?

    If the odds are against, I reckon it's a good bet.
    5/1

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...grp_ids=111802

  10. #10
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    That is very tempting.

    There's no way I can see it going over 60%.

    Taking it and putting some on 55%-60% to cover risk would seem like a good plan.
    My political compass
    Economic Left/Right: 0.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36

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