George Lee - next GE, Dublin South or Dún Laoghaire?

[Ciarán Mac Mathghamhna]

I am just wondering how things will pan out come the next General Election, whenever it comes to pass, in terms of where George Lee will run.

1. On the one hand, he has run very successfully in Dublin South, why would he move?
2. On the other hand, Dublin South already has two very high profile Fine Gael TDs in Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter, so it might make sense for him to move somewhere else.
3. Then again, FG did run three candidates in Dublin South the last time round (Jim O'Leary being the third), so why not this time? when there is actually a much better chance that all three would get home?
4. At the same time, with Lee living in Cabinteely, it would make more sense for him to run in his own Dún Laoghaire constituency, particularly given that this is to become a 4-seater with two government ministers (Barry Andrews and Mary Hanafin) due to fight it out there, meaning he could easily take a scalp (maybe even two?) if he ran there?
5. Another factor is that FF in Dublin South may be in some disarray, with the passing of Seamus Brennan, the retirement of Tom Kitt (correct?), and the poor performance of Brennan Jr, meaning that FG probably are quite comfortable there, without needing Lee's firepower.

I know this is probably still a long way off, but I am curious and would love to know what the rest of you think about how this will pan out.

[Simbo67]

It comes down to the chances of winning seats in DS and DL (bit of an obvious statement I suppose). If FG can win 3 seats in DS with him on the ticket, he should stay there. However, if there are only two seats in DS and by moving him to DL FG can win two seats then maybe there is merit in it.
Btw, where he lives now will be included in the DS territory next general election.

[tenderloins1]

Is Dublin South likely to be reduced to 4 seats by the next Boundary change?

Given that the Green and FF vote is likely to go down,Fine Gael would have an outside chance of 3 seats without him in Dublin South.
They would more than likely get 2 seats in Dun Laoghaire with him.
So a better chance of 5 FG seats with him running in Dun Laoghaire
Also Is Sean Barrett retiring?

[Simbo67]

No, DS is staying a 5 seater. It got extra territory from DL and DL was reduced from 5 to 4.

[Mr.De-Regulation]

Maybe Shatter is planning on quitting? Here's to hoping.

[DL2FG]

George Lee was born in Dublin South, was elected for Dublin South and where he lives will be in Dublin South at the next election. FG have an outside chance of 3 seats and he will be guarateed one so there is no need for him to move anywhere else.

Sean Barrett is likely to run in DL again. The open question is who will be his running mate(s)?

[Ballyfermot Man]

By 2012, Olivia Mitchell will be well past her sell by date as a candidate. She'll be 64. Why would anyone want to go on?

Even at this stage, she should be dropped from the front bench. She has been totally ineffective, and was put there due to the complete lack of suitable female front bench FG material. Shatter is'nt exactly fresh blood either, and the grass roots are none too enthused about him after nearly 30 years.

There is no doubt FG have candidate problems in DL, who and how many to run. There are candidates who want to run but are not electable (Eugene Regan).

[October]

Mitchell aint going anywhere, she is unlucky that she was lumped with a portfolio that didn't suit her but she's been as active as before. Same with Shatter, how are the grass roots fed up with him when they re-elected him to the Dail.

Anyway where Lee lives is now in Dublin South, the constituency where he was born, reared & educated. he'll be one of the 3/4 candidates next time gunning for 3 seats. FF are in a mess here

Dun Laoghaire has Barrett who will run if the GE is soon, Regan was in a great position before he sued the party, Bailey is past it but wouldn't be surprised to see his daughter put fwd, Baker isn't up to a Dail election & I imagine Ward is waiting for the enxt time, build a base etc

My money is on an otuside parachute for Dun Laghaire such as David McWilliams to run with Barrett

[Fianna Fáiler]

Mitchell aint going anywhere, she is unlucky that she was lumped with a portfolio that didn't suit her but she's been as active as before. Same with Shatter, how are the grass roots fed up with him when they re-elected him to the Dail.

Anyway where Lee lives is now in Dublin South, the constituency where he was born, reared & educated. he'll be one of the 3/4 candidates next time gunning for 3 seats. FF are in a mess here

Dun Laoghaire has Barrett who will run if the GE is soon, Regan was in a great position before he sued the party, Bailey is past it but wouldn't be surprised to see his daughter put fwd, Baker isn't up to a Dail election & I imagine Ward is waiting for the enxt time, build a base etc

My money is on an otuside parachute for Dun Laghaire such as David McWilliams to run with Barrett

Wasn't Mary Mitchell O'Connor promised a place on the ticket if she held her council seat after leaving the PD's? It's likely to be a Regan & Mitchell ticket. Barrett has been invisible since getting re-elected, the last thing we got from him was a thank you card on the night before the 2007 General Election.

[meriwether2]

There are three seats in DS for FG next time. Lee, Shatter and Mitchell will be the ticket, with O'Leary as a possible sweeper. O'Leary could well nick the third from mitchell (he got 3600 in the locals).

There's one for them in DL, and Regan/O'Connor will probably be the ticket.

The outside variable is the distaste Regan is held with by HQ after his daughter went completely daft and started suing everyone.