Donegal

[QuizMaster]

Before this talk of constituency reviews or the Blaney merger I was predicting as follows:

NE: 1FF 1FG 1SF
SW: 1FF 1FG 1SF

If Donegal becomes one 5-seater SF could be the real losers. Could they get 2 out of 5?
They have 2 strong candidates in McLochlainn and Doherty.

Blaney was always going to be losing his seat to the shinners. I think the merger is a case of clutching at straws and he is still unlikely to be returned.

FG could probably hold in SW and gain in NE. Especailly with McDaid retiring. But is he?

In a 5-seater all I can predict is: 2FF, 1FG, 1SF and an almighty scrap for the last seat.

And btw I'm a Green supporter from Dublin. I've been in Donegal for almost 6 years.

[President Bartlet]

How do you read it know given Blaney's decision to return to the FF fold (listen hear the sound of his father turn in his grave) and Mc Daid's decision to run again?

[brenners']

Now that McDaid has said he is seeking the nomination there is now way FF are holding 3 seats!!

[QuizMaster]

How do you read it know given Blaney's decision to return to the FF fold (listen hear the sound of his father turn in his grave) and Mc Daid's decision to run again?

Some big name has to lose out.
FF now have 3 out of 3 in NE. I can see them just getting 1 next time and Cecilia Keaveney is probably the safest. Inishowen people will rally to her cause and not just FFers.
I suppose they may manage 2 and deprive FG of a gain, it's hard to tell.

In SW, Pearse Doherty for SF should make it, barring any IRA silliness in the meantime. He ran in the euro election for Ireland West and came 2nd, being deprived of transfers. If he makes it it can only be at the expense of FF.

If they take a seat from Donegal and make it 1 big 5-seater, you will have 5 FF TDs going after 2 or 3 seats. Skin and hair will fly. Mary Coughlin could be in trouble.
As I said earlier: 2FF, 1FG, 1SF and a 3-way battle for the last seat.

That's assuming Eamonn Blaney doesn't throw his hat in the ring to keep the IFF tradition alive.

[oreiley1]

Sinn Fein will poll well but will lose out. In each seat they need 25% or thereabouts. Unless they top the poll they aint got a chance.

Blaney will easily be returned to Dail Eireann and FG should easily hold a seat in each constituency.

3FF 2FG 1IND

[rockofcashel]

Very hard to see todays shenanigans as being anything other than happy days for Sinn Féin. No matter what the outcome of Mc Daids decision to seek the nomination against Blaney at convention (and lets be honest, Blaney will be running), there are going to a lot of either FFers or IFFers very unhappy.

Sinn Fein to sneak up the middle and take a seat here.

Two for SF in Donegal.

Unfortunately, should Donegal be made a 5 seater after the election, we'll probably go back to 1 seat, with the other TD heading for the Seanad.

Two fine reps in Pearse and Padraig though.

[QuizMaster]

I don't think the Blaney business makes any difference to SF. They are more the cause than the effect.
Each Donegal constitucney looks like a sure thing for SF. That's what Niall Blaney was running scared of. But I don't think he has anywhere to run.

And if I'm saying it evryone's saying it, because I'm ABSF.

[EastGalway]

Is McDaid back on the bottle? A few weeks ago, he announced he was retiring from politics and was going to spend some more time with his partner and child. Now, he has announced he's going to put his name forward at convention for the next election.

[cain1798]

I think Rock has about the right of it. Two excellent candidates, two fine chances of seats in each constituency but we wouldn't get two in a five seater at this point.

I do think Blaney's defection will benefit us. I was talking to Donegal comrades over the last week or so, not on this but it did come up, and they've already had expressions of interest from IFF members in joining Sinn Féin. If a couple of their members are thinking about doing it, some of their votes must be up for grabs too.

I think it can be difficult for some of us, including me until I got a crash course in it, to appreciate the level of animosity between some FF and IFF people in Donegal.

[KingKane]

Sinn Fein will poll well but will lose out. In each seat they need 25% or thereabouts. Unless they top the poll they aint got a chance.

Blaney will easily be returned to Dail Eireann and FG should easily hold a seat in each constituency.

3FF 2FG 1IND

with 25% they would have a quota!