General Election in Winter? Shaft the Incoming F.G./Labour Coalition?

[Seán Mac Stiofán]

FG and Labour do not want an immediate election - The Irish Times - Sat, Jun 13, 2009
Interesting article.

There is certainly a grain of truth in the notion that the last thing Fine Gael and Labour want is an immediate election.

Strategists in both parties would much prefer to see Fianna Fáil and the Greens introducing the budget for next year because it will have to contain another massive €5 billion savings package on top of the pain already inflicted.

An election some time next year when Fianna Fáil and the Greens have nailed their colours to the mast, and have suffered an even further drop in popularity, would be ideal as far as the Opposition is concerned.

Thoughts of the next election are already provoking terror in the ranks of Fianna Fáil. Next year would probably be the worst possible time, and party TDs are hoping that the evil day can be put off for as long as possible. Hence the Taoiseach’s reassurance to his parliamentary party that the coalition will serve out the rest of the Dáil term until 2012.

The problem about attempting to stick it out for another three years is that both Government parties could face not just a rout but near total destruction if the Coalition actually does what is required to restore order to the public finances.

There is a strong case to be made that the best time for Fianna Fáil and the Green Party to go to the country would be towards the end of this year before any budget is announced.

That would allow the Government to force the Opposition parties into a debate on budgetary strategy and their competence to govern. The outcome of such an election might not be as predictable as many commentators think.

Fianna Fáil would in all likelihood lose power but the party might be able to salvage a decent result and then try and rebuild in opposition.

The fate of the Greens is another matter but the party’s only chance of survival as a force in the Dáil may be to fight on an issue of its own choosing, rather than sharing responsibility for the Government’s record with Fianna Fáil.

The review of the programme for government over the summer should provide an opportunity for the two parties to look coldly at the options. There is a growing realisation in both that an autumn pre-budget election would be a far better option than going to the country next year after a Dáil defeat on an issue arising from a hair-shirt budget. Fianna Fáil and the Greens will have to decide not only whether they can agree a budget between them but whether they can carry it through the Dáil and survive for a couple of years. If not they may opt for an election sooner rather than later.

In his post-election pep talk to his TDs and Senators on Tuesday, Brian Cowen announced that he would like to rebuild the party organisation as Seán Lemass and Jack Lynch did in years gone by. The problem is that unlike 1948 or 1973, when the previous revamps took place, Fianna Fáil is still in power and facing the prospect of making deeply unpopular decisions. Building a vibrant, campaigning party is hardly feasible in the circumstances.

A more immediate concern is that the party is facing a campaign in just a few months for the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It is hard to see how party members will have the energy to drag themselves back out on to the doorsteps for a concerted campaign on what is a vital issue for the country.

The role of the Opposition in that referendum will be vital. One of the reasons for the first Lisbon disaster was the squabbling that went on between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael about which party was, or was not, pulling its weight in that campaign. Next time around both will have to suppress their competitive edge and convince people of the importance of voting Yes.

Having become the biggest party in the State for the first time there is now a particular onus on Fine Gael and its leader, Enda Kenny, to provide positive leadership in the referendum campaign to counteract the unpopularity of the Government.

By autumn, if Lisbon is ratified and the Nama legislation is in place, two critical stepping stones on the road to economic recovery will have been put in place.

All attention will then be on the budget and that is the issue that will determine the course of political life over the next couple of years.

If held next winter, the election would be almost completely dominated by financial policy and the forthcoming budget. Issues such as education and the Ryan Report would be momentarily put aside. The differences between F.G. and Labour would be laid bare but the opposition would have to develop policies, firstly. F.G.'s position on the financial crisis clearly favors something akin to the "bad bank strategy" but is poorly articulated and vague. Labour favor nationalizing the banks and has made a play for public sector workers...what about private sector workers? People want the public expenditure cut and yet want first-class services? What's the solution: cut public pay? For Labour, this is anathema and would do well to avoid the issue if possible. In fact, Labour have done well by railing against "the developers and bankers" without being to specific about policy.

I personally think F.F. mightn't do that badly after it's all said and done, they might indeed salvage a decent result (>40 seats, including a few in Dublin). They certainly won't be wiped out as a national force, consider F.G.'s 2002 result. They could make a comeback in five years. I predict Labour to be frustrated at the next General Election, yet again. Governments make parties (think 1932-51, Roosevelt's Democratic Party, 1945 and Clement Attlee's Labour Party or indeed De Valera's 1932-48 Fianna Fáil), but so do bad budgets: consider Ernest Blythe's in the mid-1920s. It has been considered the most singularly damaging budget to Fine Gael (although he was a Cumman na nGaedheal minister). The same could be said for whomever handles the forthcoming budget. The expression is, "a poisoned chalice".

Comments?

[SamVimesBoots]

"Ah shure der all de same, better de divil ye know, shure who else is there, shure nobody would do anytin different, shure what can be done, shure I'm just a mindless brainwashed peasant drone"

[Seán Mac Stiofán]

"Ah shure der all de same, better de divil ye know, shure who else is there, shure nobody would do anytin different, shure what can be done, shure I'm just a mindless brainwashed peasant drone"

Cutting, insightful commentary there.

Any other, eh, "observations" concerning the abovementioned? How do you think Labour will fare in a General Election, particularly one focused on fiscal policy? Do you think Gillmore's sanctimonious piety will result in a surge of support and bring Labour into Government as a majority-partner? Or will F.F.'s stroke divide the opposition?

[drbob1972]

i have to say that if i was a FF backbencher, i'd be really happy to get out now, as whatever chances i'd have in a election now or the subsequent one, in theres an election in 2010 then its curtains, of course most of the senior members probably don't see it that way as they know that they'd be less likely to survive and it would spell an end to their political careers.....

as for FG, if i was EK & Co. I'd def not want an election this side of Feb / Mar 2010, let FF/G deliver the budget, let people actually start to see the effects in Jan / Feb then would be the perfect time to gut FF for a generation...
as for Lab, christ knows what they're thinking, Gilmore is just a collection of very well delivered sound bytes and waffle without substance

[cropbeye]

The recent drubbing might light a fire under the F.F grass roots.

A lot of excess fat has been trimmed out and the out come of delegate conferences

for next Dail elections has been simplified some what.

Members may feel they have nothing to loose now.

It may not result in F.F winning but could ammount to a respectable outcome

with a F.G led Government scraping in feeling insecure no immediate end to the recession

and unlikely bed fellows haveing to put up with each other.

[SamVimesBoots]

Yeah, it is insightful actually.

It shows just how degenerate Irish politics is when the ruling party's main consideration is not ruling in the best interests of the country; but rather how they can scheme and stroke to avoid responsibility and lumber the opposition with the job of cleaning up the mess while simultaneously attempting to scare and spin bollocks at the electorate to minimise losses, allowing for a triumphant return to the trough after a few years.

And it shows how debased the expectations of the electorate have become when they expect nothing else and willingly fall in line with the pre-approved narrative, no matter how ridiculous that narrative might be.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

I started a thread on this last week.

http://www.politics.ie/elections/772...ml#post1773072

[Fr. Hank Tree]

We'll have a november election BTW.

[peader odonnell]

We'll have a november election BTW.

yes ,i think so too.

[geraghd]

FG and Labour do not want an immediate election - The Irish Times - Sat, Jun 13, 2009
Interesting article.


If held next winter, the election would be almost completely dominated by financial policy and the forthcoming budget. Issues such as education and the Ryan Report would be momentarily put aside. The differences between F.G. and Labour would be laid bare but the opposition would have to develop policies, firstly. F.G.'s position on the financial crisis clearly favors something akin to the "bad bank strategy" but is poorly articulated and vague.

Well firstly you are wrong there. It might be helpful to brief yourself on FG's actual policy with respect to the Banks.

www.finegael.org - policy