FF in Opposition

[Biffo]

A successful term in government would go along way to overcoming such a sense of betrayal with the electorate.

Well then why haven't we had a successful term in government this time? Biffo, the public perception is that this government have failed to deliver on health, failed to deliver on crime, failed to deliver on quality of life issues, etc. Now I know you'll throw a load of stats at me, all of which will only prove that this government have done nothing other than throw money at problems - without any coherent strategy or purpose. That's why current polls have them heading for losses of 20-25 seats.

There has been no serious debate on the governments record and while FG will continue to focus in on areas where ye perceive there to be an opportunity of winning support ye are ignoring other minor areas such as the economy and Northern Ireland. The fact that the government is in a position to spend record amounts is in itself a success story and the increases in social spending are unparalleled in this country. Spending in health, education, transport, justice and so on have delivered and will continue to deliver real results for people and that cannot simply be dismissed as throwing money around the place.

The fact is that if Labour go into government with FF it will be as a last resort to prevent a second 2007 general election and in that context they could be seen as acting in the national interest.

Thats the argument FF will try and make - but why should Labour sign their own suicide note in order to keep FF in government? This election will be the most clearly defined pro-FF versus anti-FF election since 1982 - Labour know that the effect of going back on all their pre-election commitments for the sake of power will make their 1997 massacre seem like a glorious triumph, come 2012. Watch out for a carefully-choreographed speech by Brendan Howlin at Labour's Ard Fheis next year, in which he rules out serving in an FF-led government - and then FF's strategy will be in ruins. (and in return Howlin gets a plum ministry from Rabbitte)

Talk is cheap, when the dail returns after the election and when neither Ahern nor Kenny is elected as taoiseach the Mullingar Accord is finished as is the FF/PD coalition. Then if Labour go into government with FF (after much deliberation I‘m sure) the only people who they will be betraying will be the FG supporters who transferred to them. The mood of the electorate during this period will be that them politicians need to sort themselves out and form some sort of a government, because nobody will want a second election especially the Labour party. The Labour party would be well able to spin the National Interest line (and hopefully in turn cast off the Workers party) to good effect.

BTW ye will have to do a lot better than the tired old faces argument,

I'm making the tired old faces argument in the context of 2012, if FF get back in in 2007. And its a valid argument, whether you like it or not. If the electorate are tired of you, and your opposition are organised, they turf you out. It happened in reverse to several senior FG figures in 2002.

Your probably correct that after 15 years of the same faces people would be looking for change, however there would be a very different FF going into that election.

Surely you would agree that Bruton, considering your high opinion of him, would be capable of constructing a budget that would demonstrate to the nation that FG are capable of managing the economy?

I'd like to think so, but seeing as FF have been arranging the leaking of his discussions with the Dept of Finance, along with having key information withheld from him, I doubt if he can realistically attempt it.

Indeed, why bother when you can continue speaking out of both sides of your mouth.

Your last statement about the Tories is irrelevant nonsense considering that that government had a terrible record and Labour had Tony Blair and a hungry young shadow cabinet, a calibre of people unknown in FG.

That government in 1997 campaigned on reduced unemployment, and increased growth - but the electorate were sick of them, and thus it made no difference. Sound familiar?

They also campaigned on scare tactics - namely that the opposition couldn't be trusted with the economy. Sound familiar?

They tried reminding people of what conditions were like the last time the opposition were in power, and attempting to scare them away from change. Sound familiar?

Does it not worry you that FF are using the same tactics as another party did when it could see the writing on the wall, Biffo?

And Blair's shadow cabinet could hardly be described as young - in fact it was packed with old leftwingers, there to comfort the grassroots while the party moved away from their core beliefs. Do the names Prescott, Beckett, Cunningham, Dewar, etc, mean anything to you? And during the election, Blair (inoffensive, likeable, charming, but derided by the Tories as a lightweight) took centre stage, and the others stayed quiet - with the exception of Brown, who did the economic heavy lifting. Replace Blair with Enda and Brown with Richard Bruton - and hey presto......

Those familiar items mentioned would be familiar in hundreds of elections not just the Tory massacre in 1997.
Blair had some serious quality in that cabinet, do the names Gordon Brown, Mo Mowlam or Robin Cook mean anything to you? This comparison comes along every so often around here from a member of FG and its absolute tripe. If you consider Enda Kenny to be in the same league as Tony Blair then your living in cloud cuckoo land. It did not take Tony Blair over 30 years as an MP to be in a position where he may become prime minister in the UK.

[hiding behind a poster]

There has been no serious debate on the governments record and while FG will continue to focus in on areas where ye perceive there to be an opportunity of winning support ye are ignoring other minor areas such as the economy and Northern Ireland.

Biffo, serious debate isn't everything - I suggest you look outside the "Leinster House Village" (for want of a better phrase). Recent polls trusted the alternative equally with FF/PDs to manage the economy, and gave the alternative the lead on all other issues with the exception of Northern Ireland. And NI continuously ranks near the bottom of people's concerns - way way below health, education, crime, etc. That means the public are making up their minds on these issues - and the "record spending" that I predicted you'd throw into the debate now is of little benefit to the voters - they're spending longer stuck in cars - there are no extra buses - Dublin Airport is creaking at the seams - they're still waiting months for operations, and days on trolleys. Every other day, they read of gangland shootings. They see road deaths every weekend. And whether you like it or not, Biffo, they see NOTHING improving. Now you can throw one billion this and five billion that at this argument all you like - but the electorate will vote based on what effect that spending has on their daily lives. And thats why FF are at 31% in the most recent MRBI poll.


[quote:1mgq4l3y]The fact that the government is in a position to spend record amounts is in itself a success story and the increases in social spending are unparalleled in this country. Spending in health, education, transport, justice and so on have delivered and will continue to deliver real results for people and that cannot simply be dismissed as throwing money around the place.

No they haven't delivered!! What planet are you on!!? (And do you ever canvas, more to the point). Indeed the very amount of money available, coupled with the lack of real achievement, and with PPARS, E-Voting, Mr A, etc thrown in, gives an impression of incompetence. And four years in, thats gonna take a bit of shaking off.

If you consider Enda Kenny to be in the same league as Tony Blair then your living in cloud cuckoo land.

[/quote:1mgq4l3y]

I don't recall saying that. My point is that the same tactic is being used, and it covers up the fact that an opposition party hasn't been in government for a long time, and thus has fewer recogniseable faces. Therefore they channel everything through the leader, in a presidential style of campaigning. And if the leader is popular (which Enda is - highest ratings for the leader of the Opposition in 20 years), the tactic tends to work. And before you start your regular rant about the FG front bench, I suggest you take your party hat off for a minute and think about this - if Dick Roche, Willie O'Dea, Martin Cullen and John O'Donoghue were FG front-benchers, how would you react to their TV appearances?