Pre-budget general election?

[Fr. Hank Tree]

I was struck by something suggested by Stephen Collins in the Times this morning concerning the date of next election and a possible exit strategy for FF:

There is a strong case to be made that the best time for Fianna Fáil and the Green Party to go to the country would be towards the end of this year before any budget is announced.

That would allow the Government to force the Opposition parties into a debate on budgetary strategy and their competence to govern. The outcome of such an election might not be as predictable as many commentators think.

Fianna Fáil would in all likelihood lose power but the party might be able to salvage a decent result and then try and rebuild in opposition.

FG and Labour do not want an immediate election - The Irish Times - Sat, Jun 13, 2009

So are we on for a pre-budget autumn general election?

[Duth Ealla]

I was struck by something suggested by Stephen Collins in the Times this morning concerning the date of next election and a possible exit strategy for FF:



FG and Labour do not want an immediate election - The Irish Times - Sat, Jun 13, 2009

So are we on for a pre-budget autumn general election?

CERtainly nobody wants to be seen to wield the knife in the next budget. Its certainly a plausible scenario.

If they do call an election prior to the budget we'll have to call it the cut and run election.

[TimBuckII]

Don't underestimate the thirst for power in FG and FF. It might not suit the partys but they personalitys in them will be thinking of themselves too. I can't see Kenny (or Gilmore for that matter) missing out on what might be his only chance. FF speaks for itself. The Greens are an example.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

CERtainly nobody wants to be seen to wield the knife in the next budget. Its certainly a plausible scenario.

If they do call an election prior to the budget we'll have to call it the cut and run election.

The cut and run election - i like it. It could horribly backfire for FF if they were portrayed by the opposition as being a bunch of shameless cowards; they ruled, they ruined, they ran. The government parties would have to engineer something and make it look like events got out of control. But how credible would that be?

[SamVimesBoots]

Tis almost certain, there's no way FF want to wield the knife, it'll finish them for a generation. Plus it is daily becoming ever more obvious that most of the pure blatant waste is pork to FF buddies. In order to eradicate waste in public spending, FF would have to basically stab itself in the head.

The frontline services are only a small part of public spending and are dangerously underresourced as it is because all the money disappears on pork and non-jobs like the HSE. We've reached the point where they can't make many cuts in frontline services without collapsing them entirely, and they can't slash into the mass of the parasite because that's the only core vote they have left.

FF, damned and doomed.

[tompatrick]

throw out the FFers

[kerrynorth]

Ironically Collins is absolutely correct if FF want to get the upper hand on FG and Labour long-term. But to take that decision requires Cowen to accept his political career will end in ignomous failure as the shortest serving Taoiseach ever, as well as maybe in region of 40 FF TD's accepting that they may lose in the election. Although I think FF may well save a lot of seats in the campaign as it dawns on people that Labour in particular are clueless as to any other alternatives.

For the FF party as a whole to take the decision to save their party then the correct approach would be to break with the Greens over some demand(s) they would make as part of the medium term review of the programme of government and then let FG and Labour make the Social Welfare, Health and Education etc cuts that will have to be made. However, the huiman instinct for self preservation is very strong and backbenchers will not go to the gallows so easily. But there is nothing I could disagree with Collins in his article.

[Limerick Lad]

If such an election were called it would be easy for the opposition to argue that they cannot commit as to how they would frame the budget until they assumed power, citing that the figures supplied by the Department of Finance prior to the 2002 and 2007 general elections under the stewardship of FF proved to be false subsequently and no prudent opposition political party could accept any financial statement from the Department of Finance in the current circumstances.
FF and the Greens would have to make commitments as they have the real figures in front of them, whereas the opposition could say they may or may not agree to such cuts depending on the financial circumstances they find when they enter Government.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

But to take that decision requires Cowen to accept his political career will end in ignomous failure as the shortest serving Taoiseach ever, as well as maybe in region of 40 FF TD's accepting that they may lose in the election.

This is the crux. Cowen sees himself as a loyal faithful party man who has served his party well and owes it nothing. He owuld stand by a leader in these times and he expects nothing less from others. And his legacy would be a write-off if he were to go along with this. He would want to salvage something especially when he would 2 and a half years left on the clock. Then again, he may not have a say in the thing.

[Arcadius]

There's a scheduling problem to Collins' proposal.

The EU needs Lisbon in place by the end of October when a new commission must be appointed and it's not clear how to do that under Nice.
To avoid clashing with the budget, the referendum will have to held in early October.
To avoid clashing with the referendum, the Dáil can't be dissolved August-early October.
A GE in July would be very bad - too close to the disastrous locals and FG's no confidence motion.

The Taoiseach doesn't have any real opportunities to dissolve the Dáil until the week before the budget, which would also be very bad.
FF don't have a good alternative to clinging to power until the economy picks up.