Translating RTE'S exit poll into a General Election by constituency

[kerrynorth]

FG 37; FF 21; LAB 21; SF 9; GREEN 3; OTHERS 10.

Others assumptions: I am allowing for a reduced transfer resistance in the SF vote as indicated in these elections and I am allowing for strong votegetters locally both in existing TD's and some of the aspirant TD's as exhibited in the locals.

Carlow/Kilkenny: 1FF 3FG 1LAB;
Cavan/Monaghan: 2FF 2FG 1SF;
Clare: 1FF 2FG 1IND (James Breen);
Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB;
Cork NC: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC;
Cork NW: 1FF 2FG;
Cork SC: 2FF 2FG 1LAB;
Cork SW: 1FF 1FG 1LAB;
Donegal NE: 1FF 1FG 1SF;
Donegal SW: 1FF 1FG 1SF;
Dublin Central: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND (Maureen O'Sullivan or Christy Burke);
Dublin MW: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF;
Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC;
Dublin NC: 1FG 1LAB 1IND (Finian McGrath);
Dublin NE: 1FG 1LAB 1SF;
Dublin NW: 1FF 1LAB 1SF;
Dublin SC: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1PBP;
Dublin South: 1FF 3FG 1LAB;
Dublin SE: 2FG 2LAB;
Dublin SW: 1FF 1FG 2LAB;
Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC;
Dun Laoighre: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1PBP;
Galway East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB;
Galway West: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND (Noel Grealish);
Kerry North: 1FG 1LAB 1SF;
Kerry South: 2FF (including CC) 1FG;
Kildare North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND (Catherine Murphy);
Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB;
Laois/Offaly: 2FF 2FG 1LAB;
Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB;
Limerick West: 1FF 2FG;
Longford/Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB;
Louth 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF;
Mayo 1FF 4FG;
Meath East 1FF 1FG 1LAB;
Meath West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB;
Roscommon/South Leitrim: 1FF 2FG;
Sligo/North Leitrim: 1FF 2FG;
Tipperary North: 1FG 1LAB 1IND (Michael Lowry);
Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1IND (Seamus Healy);
Waterford: 1FF 2FG 1LAB;
Wexford: 1FF 3FG 1LAB;
Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND (Joe Behan);

TOTALS: FG 68 FF 43 LAB 35; SF 7; SOC 3; PBP 2; IND 8.

Of course there will a lot of argument about individual constituencies but if you are arguing please state your case as to how you feel I am incorrect and not just make bold statements.

[Blissett]

quite a solid left of labour bloc there. There isnt a seat for barry on cork's northside id say, Sf's O brien has a much better chance.

[unaligned]

Very interesting thanks. Definitely couldn't see Labour getting two seats in Meath...

[Panopticon]

Dun Laoghaire will not elect 1 FG, I would replace PBP with FG there. Laois-Offaly has weak Labour presence and that seat could go to any one of FF, SF or FG before Labour.

[KingKane]

TOTALS: FG 68 FF 43 LAB 35; SF 7; SOC 3; PBP 2; IND 8.

Of course there will a lot of argument about individual constituencies but if you are arguing please state your case as to how you feel I am incorrect and not just make bold statements.

So FF/Lab/SF it is then!

[kerrynorth]

Laois-Offaly has weak Labour presence and that seat could go to any one of FF, SF or FG before Labour.

True. But you would have said the same prior to Pat Gallagher getting elected in 1992 and FF look very weak now in Laois. It is ripe for a Labour candidate picking up on the disaffected commuter belt vote.

[kerrynorth]

So FF/Lab/SF it is then!

Entirely possible if FF offer a rotating Taoiseach.

[Simbo67]

True. But you would have said the same prior to Pat Gallagher getting elected in 1992 and FF look very weak now in Laois. It is ripe for a Labour candidate picking up on the disaffected commuter belt vote.

Isn't funny how Laois Offaly is commuter belt, a second seat in Dun Laoghaire has to be just about target one for FG. Very interesting KN, thanks for that.

[Paddylekker]

So FF/Lab/SF it is then!

Which would, paradoxically, be the best possible thing that could happen the Fine Gael in the medium term.

[kerrynorth]

Dun Laoghaire will not elect 1 FG, I would replace PBP with FG there.

Eamonn Gilmore and a 2nd Labour candidate would soak up a lot of that vote. However, I have just come down on the side of Boyd-Barrett fending off a 2nd Labour candidate. I think Labour rather FG are best placed for 2 seats put I took a punt that the vote would be very lopsided and Gilmore's surplus would fly all over the shop.