Translating RTE'S exit poll into a General Election by constituency

[adamirer]

The RTE exit poll was rubbish... but here was my go at it, broken down by constituency using the 2007 figures and where the FF vote could go. Lots of constitieuncies just dont have acurrent probable replacement for the FF candidate.

http://www.politics.ie/elections/763...ml#post1763130

FF 61 (-19)
FG 69 (+17)
Labour 25 (+5)
Sinn Fein 6 (+2)
Greens 0 (-6)
Ind/others: 5 (+1)

I agree with the FG seats mostly, but think you have FF losing way too many seats to the left. labour dont have real candidates in many of the more rural locations and I think you're being very generous to SF in some areas in Dublin considering where they are at. But at least it's based in some science.. the Tribune and wors,e Indo articles were dire.