General Election 2010: Post Budget.

[adamirer]

I don't think there will be a General Election, but if there was.. how'd it play out? By my estimation (or guess work based on the 2007 results and local election results, I see it like this:

2007:
FF 78 (inc Ceann C)
PD 2 (call it 80 FF'ers)
FG 51
Labour 20
Sinn Fein 4
Greens 6
Ind/others: 5

Currently:
FF Gene Pool 80 (inc Harney, Grelish, Behan, McDaid & Ceann C)
FG 52 (add Lee)
Labour 20
Sinn Fein 4
Greens 6
Ind/others: 4 (Lowry, JHR, McGrath, O'Sullivan)

2010:
FF 61 (-19)
FG 69 (+17)
Labour 25 (+5)
Sinn Fein 6 (+2)
Greens 0 (-6)
Ind/others: 5 (+1)

and here's where I see it happening.

Carklow/Kilkenny: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Carlow Kilkenny First Preference Votes
Now: 3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Gr. Mary White (Gr) to lose, one FF to drop, probably MJ Nolan or Alyward to JP Phelan (FG) and Labour (Jim Townsend).... 2010: 2 FF 2 FG, 1 Lab

Cavan Monaghan: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes
Now: 3 FF (O'Hanlon was CC), 1 SF, 1 FG. At least one FF to go here. 3 FF only delivered due to O'Hanlon not having to run. Joe O'Reilly (FG) to take a seat comfortably.. rest way off the pace where FF should be at risk of losing a seat. 2010: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF... but scope for 1 FF if a serious challenger emerges.

Clare: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Clare First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 2 FG. Labour and SF miles off the pace here. FF had 25k 1st prefs, FG had 20k. There was an Ind in 2002, but unless another emerges, or Madeline Taylor Quinn delivers a 3rd FG seat, its hard to see a change. 2 FF 2FG.

Cork East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork East First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab. Michael Ahern and Ned O'Keeffe took 2 seats with only them running, no sweepers - and started below quota. FF won't hold both seats. Paul Bradford (FG) was very close to Sherlock (lab) for the last seat, and both should be fine next time. 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.

Cork North Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork North Central First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab. Much as Cork East, expect Noel o'Flynn (FF) got elected 1,500 votes of quota. FF won't hold this seat, Billy Kelleher is safe tho with good profile. SF did well in 2007, but this is a FG gain for Gerry Kelly if they manage the vote better. 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 lab

Cork North West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork North West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG. A tough 3 seater. FF ran three strong pollers in 2007, and 2 sitting TDs, FG's Murphy and FF's Moynihan lost out. Batt O'Keefee (FF) took last seat, comfortably on transfers from Murphy, but he might be the focus of a lot of ire over next years by parents. Doable for FG, but only if FF remain as unpopular... no change. 2010: 2 FF 1 FG.

Cork South Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South Central First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab. FF had 2.65 quotas in 2007. They'll (Michael Martin) still deliver 2 seats, just not as quickly. No change. 2010: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.

Cork South West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FG, 1 FF. FF have 1.7 quota here. Seat is safe as houses. 2010: 2 FG 1 FF

Donegal North East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Donegal North East First Preference Votes
Now 2 FF, 1 FG. One of the hardest to call. FG's McHugh topped the pole and will be safe. FF once had 3 TDs out of 3 here, SF's Padraig McLochlainn is pressing. FF had over 50% of the vote and 2.01 quotas in 07. Can SF dislodge a FF TD? the 3rd FF candidate (Keaveney) was only 700 votes off McLochlainn when eliminated... head says no. the FG seat was the one SF expected. If FF lose a seat here, it's all over...No change. 2 FF, 1 FG

Donegal South East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Donegal South West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG. But different story here. SF's Pearse Doherty should take a FF seat from the the constituency of Mary Coughlan and Pat The Cope/Replacement. FF had the same quota as DNE, but no high profile candidate to repalce the cope, or sweep. Straight fight between Doherty and the Copes replacement. 1 FF 1 FG, 1 SF.

Dublin Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Central First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 Lab, 1 Ind. Bertie is finished in DC, and FF won't hold the 2nd seat. SF in toruble with Burke now Independent and thus splitting the vote with an official SF candidate. FG's Donohue to pick up a seat from FF. 2010: 1 FF, 1 FG 1 Lab, 1 Ind.

Dublin MidWest: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 PD, 1 Green. Lot of change expected here. Curren will hold the FF seat, but on much lower vote. Harney is retiring and Gogarty (green) is rather unpopular and with Greens in chaos in Lucan. FG resurrgent here, Francis Fitzgerald was a bit off the pace last time, but her and Derek keating (FG) - who got a massive 4K+ vote in the Locals - more than Gogarty or Tuffy got in the GE, will be battling to bring home not one, but 2 FG seats as a result of Harney going. Might be a home for MLM, with SF strong in Clondalkin. 2010: 1 FF, 1 Lab & 2 FG (or 1 FG & 1 SF if MLM runs).

Dublin North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green. FF should hold both seats as they had a 2.1 quota, FG safe, and Trevor Sargent might be the only green left standing. Clare Daly (Soc) should do very well, but expect Lab should pick up the green seat and Daly to lose to the 2nd FF candidate. 2010: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.

Dublin North Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North Central First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind. Tough three seater. FF and FG seat are solid. Finian mcGrath divides opinions but Independents should be ok (see Clontarf LE result) unless Labour really capitalise on FF unpopularity and start eating into McGraths area. Labour need to take this seat... 2010: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind (more likely than 1 lab currently).

Dublin North East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North East First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab. FF had 1.6 quota...no change. 2010: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab.

Dublin North West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 Lab. Great result in 07 for FF, but wont hold that seat now. Who of Noel Ahern or Pat Carey will go? SF did well here in 07, but FG's Bill Tormey should benefit from a FF fall and FG bounce, but isnt inspiring to date... a key target for FG. If they don't take it... 2010: 1 FF, 1 Lab and 1 FG (or 1 SF)

Dublin South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South First Preference Votes
Now: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Green. With PDs/Liz O'Donnell now gone, FG to hold all three seats as Lee soaks up chunks of the Ryan/Green vote and some FF. Greens imploded out here, Ryan dead in water early enough on... Alex White (Lab) to join Shatter (FG) as last 2 elected. 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab.

Dublin South Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South Central First Preference Votes.
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF. This is a big one for all parties. FG seat is safe, but not a hope of a 2nd. There's one safe FF and Lab seat. The other FF seat and SF's seat are in play. Labours Eric Byrne had a massive result in Crumlin LE and was only 100 votes off SF's O'Snodaigh last time out. PBP Brid Smith must also be wondering does she have a chance, if she can come in ahead of O'Snodaigh and just one of her/Joan Collins run after BPB excellent Locals. FF had 15,725 1stp in the GE.. they had 4,420 in the locals in DSC, both Ardaghs losing badly. 2010: 1 FF, 1FG, 2 Lab, 1 SF (or 1 PBP/+1 FF)

Dublin South East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South East First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF, 1FG. 1 Lab, 1 Green. A key one. McDowell/PDs are gone. Gormley couldnt stop incinerator and got elected on anti-McDowell transfers. Green seat to go, to FG, with Creighton and Eoghan Murphy given huge exposure. 2010: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.

Dublin South West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1Lab. Easy to call. SF (Sean Crowe) to take 2nd FF seat. Crowe was miles off the pace in 2007, but the collpsing Ff vote has to go somewhere.. him or MLM if she's put there.

Dublin West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin West First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF, 1FG, 1 Lab. Additional seat added, Joe Higgins the winner. Lenihan, Varadkar and Burton all very high profile. Joe Higgins will win the new seat 2010: 1 FF 1 FG 1 lab 1 Soc.

DunLaoighaire: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dun Laoghaire First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG 1 lab 1Green. Big 5 seater now down to a four seater. FF to lose a seat here and Cuffe is the first Green td to fall. FG will comfortably take a 2nd seat here after bad vote management in 2007 and Richard Boyd barrett will miss out in the squeeze due to the seat change. 2010: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Galway East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Galway East First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 2 FG: Hard to see a change here with FF and FG both with 39% of the vote! Can't see any change, bar the faces. 2010: 2 FF 2 FG.

Galway West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Galway West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1FG 1PD 1 Lab. Some change here. Noel Grelish position is hard to figure... we should define him as 3 FF really, pushing FF to over 50% of the vote. They'll drop back a bit, but hard to call. 3 FF in a 5 seater? 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 lab (depending on Grelish).

Kerry North/West Limerick: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kerry North First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF 1 FG 1 SF. Probably no change, even though the constituency is radically changed with the inclusion of some of the old Limerick West. A resurgent Labour in the area with Arthur Spring may give Ferris (which one?) a ferocious battle for the last seat. SF got 4618 E votes in KN this time, Lab got 6729... toss a coin. Ferris vs Spring will be a barometre of how well Labour can do nationally. 2010: 1 FF 1FG 1 SF.

Kerry South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kerry South First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind. A FF gain here. O'Donohues CCship means he's elected and its a 2 seater. FF to therefore win another seat (not in a 3 seater!) and FG to hold off Healy Rae (who is well into 70's) unless Michael Healy-Rae does as what is rumoured and joins as the 2nd FF candidate. 2010: 2 FF 1 FG.

Kildare North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kildare North First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1FG 1 Lab: FF 2nd seat at risk, to catherine Murphy (ind - ex Labour), but no other real threat. 2010: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 lab, 1 Ind.

Kildare South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kildare South First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 Lab. Brilliant FF result in 2007, both candidates right on the quota mark. FG should have delivered and will next time, 2010: 1 FF, 1 FG 1 Lab.

Laois Offaly: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Laoighis Offaly First Preference Votes
Now: 3 FF 2 FG. Cowen's constituency. No change. 3 FF and 2 FG.

Limerick East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Limerick East First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 2 FG 1 lab. Willie O'Dea and co have 2.92 quotas. 2 Ff are safe, all seats are. No change. 2 FF 2 FG 1 lab

Limerick West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Limerick West First Preference Votes
Now 2 FF 1 FG. Simple swpa with the 2nd FF now a 2nd FG. FF had 2.14 and Fg 1.67 quotas.. a small swing swaps the seats. No one else even close. 2010: 1 FF 2 FG.

Longford Westmeath: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Longford Westmeath First Preference Votes.
Now 2 FF, 1FG 1 Lab. The O'Rourke/Cassidy area. FF got 2.06 quota and FG 1.55. Can see the 2nd FF seat swap to FG very easily, esp now PDs have gone. 2010: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Louth: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Louth First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG 1 SF. An additional seat has been added making this a five seater. FF had 2.11 quota and FG only had 1.47, even with high profile Mairead McGuinness. FG will take this new seat, but the extra seat also means FF should hold their 2nd seat with the reduced quota (probably by 2,000 votes) saving them from labour. 2 FF 2 FG 1 SF.

Mayo: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Mayo First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 3 FG. Kenny homeland. All seats are safe. No change.

Meath East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Meath East First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG. FF will lose a seat here. labours Dominic Hannigan well placed to take Byrne's seat. 2010: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab.

Meath West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Meath West First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG. Dempsey land. FF took a big hit here in the locals but SF too far back 9and stalling) to make up the ground. There was almost a quota gap betwene FG and FF last time, too much to make up. No cyange. 2 FF 1 FG

Roscommon Leitrim S: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Roscommon Leitrim South First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FG 1 FF. No change. 2010: 2 FG 1 FF.

Sligo Leitrim N: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Sligo Leitrim North First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG. Swap between FG and FF for the last seat. 2010: 1 Ff 2 FG

Tipp North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Tipperary North First Preference Votes
Now: 1 Ff 1 FG 1 Ind. No change, lowry seems safe as houses. BUT.. if kathleen O'Meara of Lab does very well and Ff badly collapse, she might threaten the final seat! No FF in a constituency???? 2010: 1 Ff 1 FG 1 Ind

Tipp South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Tipperary South First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1 FG. FF had 1.86 quotas last time, FG had .85, lab .35 but the Ind who challenged had .59. Not sure if that persons moment has gone, but Fg and Lab won';t challenge anyway. hence no change: 2FF 1FG

Waterford: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Waterford First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 1FG 1 Lab. FF had 2.32 quota last time. If hit hard then you can see John Deasy (FG) bringing in the 2nd FG'er.. on current urban FF performance, probable - and FF now have 6 cllrs there compared to FG's 15. 2010: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Wexford: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Wexford First Preference Votes
Now: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab. No change. FF had 2.53 quotas last time and while FG had 1.89. Theres not enough here to take a FF seat away. 2010: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Wicklow: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Wicklow First Preference Votes
Now: 1 FF 1 FF.ind 2 FG 1 Lab. Joe Behan messes the sums up, but realistically, FG have everyhting they can get here and Labour's Nicky Kelly just isn't up to it - transferring almost as much to FF as he did Labour! Same seats returned (calling Behen FF). 2 FF 12 FG 1 Lab.

Tiotal 2010:
2010:
FF 61 (-19)
FG 69 (+17)
Labour 25 (+5)
Sinn Fein 6 (+2)
Greens 0 (-6)
Ind/others: 5 (+1)

[adamirer]

as a result of.. http://www.politics.ie/current-affai...r-opinion.html

[Blue_Tide]

incredible work, well done.

[adamirer]

incredible work, well done.

Cheers.. a slow day in the office. No doubt its the SF seats/tagrets of Donegal, kerry and Dublin SC which will be most debated. Looking at what faces them constituency by constituency, you just can't see FF going below 55 seats and certainly not into the 40s regardless of the maths of saying they are down XX%

There simply isn't alternative candidates well placed and there's also the personalised nature of voting...

[earth]

Very good report.

I know it seems a very strange thing to say, but Dublin Central will be a very tough one to call. Hard to see Brady getting in if M Ahern couldn't get 13%. So if FF get a seat it has to be Mary Fitzpatrick. If she gets a seat, that would surely affect Donoghue's chances. Who benefits from this I don't know, but no doubt Labour would be hopeful.

It does make O'Sullivan seem a fair bit safer though. (Or am I reading too much into the by-election?)

You don't think Independents are set to gain, especially if Lowry and Healy Rae deliver for their constituencies? If they manage to shield their voters from the cuts, voters around the country may take notice.

Mairéad McGuinness could as easily run in Meath East, which should make two FG there fairly safe, leaving Wallace and Hannigan to fight it out for the last one (is this constituency due to be bigger in the next election, or is that my imagination).

In Meath West, there's definitely scope for another FG, but it's not easy to think of who that might be. Using Ray Butler as a sweeper/candidate in Trim might be a good idea for starters, and a Kells/Oldcastle other candidate might challenge Brady. That said, Brady's base is pretty solid (and he has some of Cassidy's in Westmeath) and Trim votes en masse for Dempsey for some reason that I just can't explain.

[mgbarry]

Did you take into account the boundary changes that will be in place for the next election, for example Limerick East, Limerick West and Kerry North will not exist at the next election and the new Limerick City, Limerick & Kerry North/West Limerick constituencies will have only 10 TDs (4/3/3) instead of 11 at present (5/3/3)

[myk]

When are the boundary changes coming in? Shouldn't there be 4 seats in Dublin West?

[adamirer]

Did you take into account the boundary changes that will be in place for the next election, for example Limerick East, Limerick West and Kerry North will not exist at the next election and the new Limerick City, Limerick & Kerry North/West Limerick constituencies will have only 10 TDs (4/3/3) instead of 11 at present (5/3/3)

Eh nope, haven't a clue what they'd be so just going purely on the basis of votes received before and on basis of 'current' feeling towards FF and others. Haven't a clue what changes are imminent!

[smitchy2]

I think you are been far too optimistic with FF. If you put their support in the locals into this there is not a hells chance they will get 60 seats. And if you are timing this after a budget in early 2010, there is no way there support will pick up substantially.

Labour only picking up 5 seats after nearly doubling their support in % terms would be a disaster. If they run it as a 3rd alternative they will be over the 30 seat mark.

Joe Higgins will pick up a seat and the PBP will also gain a seat.
I would expect some other independents to emerge as well.

Fair play on going through the detail though. I would say your results are more 2012 than 2010 though.

[locke]

Boundary changes essentially mean Louth and Dublin West gain a seat, while Dun Laoighaire and Limerick East lose seats.

Obviously that oversimplifies as the boundary changes disproportionately affect different politicians. For example, in Limerick East Kieran O'Donnell (FG) finds the area where he polled best moved into a neighbouring constituency.

I think the big unknown is what will happen with Independents. There are a few (mostly rural) constituencies where FG are too far off picking up a seat, FF should definitely lose, but Labour and Sinn Fein are off the pace. In those places if a credible Indo can emerge, FF's seat could be threatened - Cavan-Monaghan, Clare and Galway East would be examples.

I wouldn't quibble with most of your analysis, except to note that there are a few unknowns floating around.

Down here I'd say the increase in Cork NC's boundary helps Gerry Kelly (FG), but disadvantages Paul Bradford (FG) in Cork East. It may also disadvantage Batt O'Keeffe (FF) in Cork NW.

Batt O'Keeffe may also be affected by the fact his son failed to get elected to Cork County Council. Losing the local fixer is a serious disadvantage.

Also, in Cork SW, the 2nd FG seat could be vulnerable to Labour. A swing of 4% from Fianna Fail to Labour would change the order of elimination, which could have substantial knock-on affects.