With 879 seats confirmed on the RTE website I examined the seat bonus for each of the parties. The last few seats will only have a very slight impact on these percentages.
FG +6.37%
FF - 0.71%
Lab +0.20%
GP -1.96%
SF -1.26%
Others -2.64%
FG had a higher seat bonus than I had expected and I thought labour might get a negative bonus on account of a possible lack of candidates.
Is this the first national election for FF with a negative bonus?
I don't wish to excessively extrapolate local figures into possible GE figures. But unless FF have a dramatic improvement poll wise there will be a lot of seat looses for the party.
It gets worse for FF, the figures that FG got in the local exit poll are very close to their actuals. The exit poll indicated that a higher portion will vote for FG in a GE than in the locals, generally as a result of a preference to local independents.
In a GE context FG going up, FF going down will ensure such a large bonus is maintained.



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