Dublin Exit poll

[skeptic]

i was told tonight by a FG TD that newstalk had conducted an exit poll in Dublin with a sample of 1500.

can anyone confirm this? I was told the result had fg on 30% and FF on around 10%.
Is this true or pure fantasy?

[TrueBlue forever]

I wish it was true but imagine it is wishful thinking after a few drinks...

[Delphinian]

Depends, I trust it was on the euro's. Newstalk have a bais towards Fine Gael so percentage would be high. If it was for Euro's than I think they overestimated by a few percent FG and underestimated FF by same.

[TrueBlue forever]

Depends, I trust it was on the euro's. Newstalk have a bais towards Fine Gael so percentage would be high. If it was for Euro's than I think they overestimated by a few percent FG and underestimated FF by same.

Agreed. I just cannot see FF down that low

[anewbeginning]

I can, in fact I can see them lower...

I'd question it's accuracy on the basis of FF getting as high a figure as 10%. No-one is voting for them except maybe friends and family, and I'm sure even some of those had second thoughts about voting FF.

[Delphinian]

I disagree. I think FF will poll around 15%-17% between their two candidates.

Mitchell will poll I think around 24%-26%.

deRossa 23%-25%
MLM 14%-15%
Comrade Joe 9%-11%
deBurca(going to need one after this election) 5%
Libertas 4%-5%

[FutureTaoiseach]

If FF are on 10%, Ryan's seat is almost certainly gone. Mitchell would have a 5% surplus, but much of it will go to De Rossa. Tell me skeptic, what else did he tell you about the poll? The election is over so there seems no incentive for him to lie.

[Delphinian]

If FF are on 10%, then they're destroyed. But I cannot imagine, in the wildest whatever, that 2 FF candidates between them got only 10% of the Dublin County vote. Seems to unrealistic for me, and I'm sure even the most virulent anti-FF'ers (while wd'ing that it could happen) would have to agree. I just cannot see that low.

[FutureTaoiseach]

If FF are on 10%, then they're destroyed. But I cannot imagine, in the wildest whatever, that 2 FF candidates between them got only 10% of the Dublin County vote. Seems to unrealistic for me, and I'm sure even the most virulent anti-FF'ers (while wd'ing that it could happen) would have to agree. I just cannot see that low.

Well FF were on 10% - level with SF - for the local elections in the last Red C poll.

[Delphinian]

But EU and local are viewed differently. Total different mindset for people. (rightly or wrongly). FF would be hammered in local and quite possibly very badly done over in GE. But I think the majority of people view EU different. FF average would be above 10% in all dub constituencies in GE. SF's wouldn't.