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About LinkBacksWith turnout in various parts of the constituency now know do any of the local activists want to speculate on the result ?
With turnout in various parts of the constituency now know do any of the local activists want to speculate on the result ?
I'm 260km away but every political sense suggests o'sullivan based on her probable ability to attract transfers in what will be a tight race. FF and Lab preferences to put her over the line
Well I'm certainly not a local activist, but the notion of a blueshirt coming in first here of all places doesn't make sense to me.Originally Posted by DublinSouth
It'll be somebody else/
Poni welwch chi hynt y gwynt a'r glaw?
Poni welwch chi'r deri'n ymdaraw?
The turnout in Cabra Glasnevin would indicate to me that it is between Donohue and Bacik.
Turnout v. poor in working class areas, north inner city etc. That will hit Maureen and Christy who were relying on his working class turnouts.
Ivana has gone down like a lead balloon in key parts of the constituency, among expected Labour supporters, because of her perceived lack of interest in, and knowledge about, the constituency, and the belief that she would be more interested in ensuring the school curriculum was gender-proofed than in getting prefabs replaced by new classrooms. (That exact comment was made to me.) Also her liberalism doesn't work well in Central. It would in Dun Laoghaire, Dublin South or South East. But Central is a heavily clientalist quite conservative constituency.
Paschal had the most positive reaction in the middle class areas that voted, and also was showing up consistently among transfers from Christy and Maureen, and heavily among Ivana voters.
Based on the turnout, where it was, and seeing first hand on the doorsteps that Ivana was not going down well in key areas, I reckon the seat will be won by Paschal Donohoe. It is unclear who will be the lead left candidate, but I have a hunch it will be Christy. But the low turnout in his key areas may leave him too far off Donohoe to overtake him.
Really? not that id know, but i wouldnt have given Bacik much chance at all!
I would put this to a fight between donoghue and O' Sullivan with O'S shading it from widespread transfers!
Thats just my reading of it!
There is no way FF lite will win here, Somebody on the left will win.
and add that to the very low turnout in north inner city and it looks more likely
I would have thought o'donaghue or christy
The Irish Times website notes that the Wards with the highest and lowest turnout in all of Dublin City were Cabra/Glasnevin and North Inner City respectively - both in Dublin Central.
With Donohoe, Ahern and Bacik based in C/G, and Burke and O'Sullivan based in NIC - this is surely going to have some kind of impact?
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