Final Results: Picture Sunday morning

[adamirer]

Euro:
FG: 4 seats - lose East seat to Labour. Weak South performance.
FF: 3/4 if Ryan holds on and gets the silent/embarrassed FF vote... (which i have hunch he will)
Libertas - 0
Labour - 2 - gain one seat, Childers. Kelly a disappointment.
SF - 1/0 - but its flip a coin time on MLM or Ryan, not as cut and dried as many think.
Sinnott & Harkin to be comfortable.

By-election:
DS: Lee, comfortably.
DC: Donohue pipping Bacik and O'Sullivan... SF to win seat at GE if they keep Burke around.

Locals:
FG: modest gains from the exceptional 2004 result,
FF: Lose 100 (ish) seats.
Labour: significant gains
SF: modest gains - good locals...
Greens: 27 down to a dozen... halved....

As the Dust settles: what fallout
Posters here tend to think every event is scismic, from Golden Circles to Bertiegate to Anglo etc. reality is, little changes in irish politics unless a coalition partner feels slighted. So...

Cowen to hang on regardless... FF won't ditch their leader. A result of worldwide blah blah and for taking hard decisions (when its the lack of taking hard decisions over many years that got us here). A rise in Independent FF candidates come next election... mutterings, but no bo**ox shown by the dissenters. Ahern, Dempsey and Martin to keep heads down until a recovery is likely.

Kenny & Gilmore to both claim victory, one by by-elections, one for Euros - unless FG hold 2 in Euros, which would be a huge achievement for Kenny and give him all the bragging rights.

Greens to bed down and pray for a turnaround in economy. They will not pull out, their survival depends on it, unless they can go on a very high principle. FF won't put gun to their head. They need to show voters at a GE what they delivered, and thats been clear from day one.. its a 5 year strategy and will take a lot to abandon it.

SF: all depends if MLM holds her seat and will be a disaster for them if they don't. MLM losing her seat will have much bigger impact on SF than Ryan losing for FF.

Libertas - party stillborn.

... and we carry on regardless. Come the budget we'll still have same Government.

[Nick Leeson]

I think you have got it pretty spot-on there...especially with the aftermath too.

[rollie]

Yea that seems about right

[MookieBaylock]

Good post, I largely agree but I think Ryan will lose out. The anger is higher in Dublin so I go..

FG: 5 seats - I think Phelan will beat Childers.
FF: 3 - Ryan will lose.
Libertas - 0 - yes.
Labour - 2 - Kelly to beat Sinnott.
SF - 1 - and its a flip between McDonald and Higgins.

By-election:
DS: Lee, comfortably. (yes)
DC: Donohue pipping Bacik and O'Sullivan... SF to win seat at GE if they keepy Burke around. (yes, but O'Sullivan the main danger.

Locals:
FG: modest gains from the exceptional 2004 result (50+ seats I reckon)
FF: Lose 100 (ish) seats. (agree)
Labour: significant gains (30-40 seats which would be large for them)
SF: modest gains - good locals (10-15 seats for them)
Greens: 27 down to a dozen (I reckon 6 or 7).

[drbob1972]

only time will tell, but i still think that FG holding 2 in East will be some achievement

[Toland]

_. P .., .S.
. .:............. ....
....:.................._ ....,
............ .............., .:..
....... . . _:........ :..
_...... . .<........ ....
,...... ....... ..._.
_..... ..:...) .....
:.... ..:.... .....
.... _:..... .....
...... .....U..._.
..... _:..... (
O..... ......
:... ) .......
....._ . ...E:..),
.:.... ).... . _.....
..... ,...... .:....
) ..... ...:.._ .....
....... ..:..... ...+,
. :...... )..:...,. ....
.:....... ..+......., _:...
............?. .............. .....
. .......:............,. :...
. :..............) ...
.. I. .. ,D.

[kerrynorth]

Counting does not start till noon on Sunday for the Euros so how this will be the 'picture Sunday morning' really beats me!

[adamirer]

Counting does not start till noon on Sunday for the Euros so how this will be the 'picture Sunday morning' really beats me!

Really? Feck, and I have my count ticket for Sat 6th in front of me! Gah!

And sure... just because they haven't been counted, doesn't mean the result is any different.. squirm.... *fiddles fingers*.... DOH!

[kerrynorth]

Really? Feck, and I have my count ticket for Sat 6th in front of me! Gah!

And sure... just because they haven't been counted, doesn't mean the result is any different.. squirm.... *fiddles fingers*.... DOH!

They will only be sorted in the circa 40 count centres on the Saturday. Other than Dublin it may be difficult to get a first count picture from the sorting. For example there are no less than 12 sorting centres in North West, the 11 counties and Galway City. I doubt you will get any coherent grasp of the likely first count except for Dublin, and then only in terms of who is doing or worse than the polls indicated rather than specific figures.

[cain1798]

They will only be sorted in the circa 40 count centres on the Saturday. Other than Dublin it may be difficult to get a first count picture from the sorting. For example there are no less than 12 sorting centres in North West, the 11 counties and Galway City. I doubt you will get any coherent grasp of the likely first count except for Dublin, and then only in terms of who is doing or worse than the polls indicated rather than specific figures.

So hold on. We'll get the first count tallies for the Dublin Euro election by lunchtime on Saturday and then we wait 24 hours for the counting to begin?

That'll be a long day.