Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[wombat]

I know one FF staffer who has put €500 on the party returning ony one MEP.

That makes me feel better, I only lost €20 on Chelsea in the Champions League.

[He3]

I can tell you that the figures for the Euro Constituencies will not be published as The SBP do not beleive the sample sizes are big enough to hang their reputation on.

However, they have picked up what some are calling a "big swing" to Ganley in the North West, with him picking up about 10% on where he was previously. Most party sources believe Ganley is on about 16% and rising and the RED C poll seems to confirm this. The key for Ganley will be momentum in the final week - if he can finish in the top 3 with 17-18% most observers agree that he will be safe enough. However, the Irish Times poll showing him stalling cannot be discounted, and we will have to wait and see on this one.

In South, I'm told the increase in the Ferris vote makes up for much of the overall 3% national swing to Sinn Fein, and that she has moved into the "top tier" of candidates alongside Sinnott and Kelly. This is good news for Sinnott if she can stay ahead of Ferris, and curtains for Kelly as it is generally assumed that Ferris will benefit Sinnott when she goes out.

In Dublin, Fianna Failers are now certain that Ryan is a gonner. As in dead and buried. They are also worried about East, and feel that polls in NW are vastly overstating their vote. I know one FF staffer who has put €500 on the party returning ony one MEP.

Still too early to say, but Euro polls are notoriously unrelaible. In NW, the relentless attacks on Ganley should be seen as a real indicator of how worried the parties are about him. Notice how none of them have attacked McLochlainn - they don't fear him, but they do think Ganley is a threat for a seat.

But we'll see.

Useful post there debutant, thanks.

[Digout]

I can tell you that the figures for the Euro Constituencies will not be published as The SBP do not beleive the sample sizes are big enough to hang their reputation on.

However, they have picked up what some are calling a "big swing" to Ganley in the North West, with him picking up about 10% on where he was previously. Most party sources believe Ganley is on about 16% and rising and the RED C poll seems to confirm this. The key for Ganley will be momentum in the final week - if he can finish in the top 3 with 17-18% most observers agree that he will be safe enough. However, the Irish Times poll showing him stalling cannot be discounted, and we will have to wait and see on this one.

In South, I'm told the increase in the Ferris vote makes up for much of the overall 3% national swing to Sinn Fein, and that she has moved into the "top tier" of candidates alongside Sinnott and Kelly. This is good news for Sinnott if she can stay ahead of Ferris, and curtains for Kelly as it is generally assumed that Ferris will benefit Sinnott when she goes out.

In Dublin, Fianna Failers are now certain that Ryan is a gonner. As in dead and buried. They are also worried about East, and feel that polls in NW are vastly overstating their vote. I know one FF staffer who has put €500 on the party returning ony one MEP.

Still too early to say, but Euro polls are notoriously unrelaible. In NW, the relentless attacks on Ganley should be seen as a real indicator of how worried the parties are about him. Notice how none of them have attacked McLochlainn - they don't fear him, but they do think Ganley is a threat for a seat.

But we'll see.

Thats a long first post, what was your old username?

[journo]

I don't intend contributing regularly - but I think the SBP should really publish those numbers. They published them last week when they had Ganley on 5% or something, and to withhold them this week when they have him much higher gives Libertas a pretty justifiable excuse to moan about media bias.

We are all biased, obviously, in our own ways, but I think the Lisbon obsession in Leinster House has been reflected too much in the writings of my colleagues.

[Digout]

I don't intend contributing regularly - but I think the SBP should really publish those numbers. They published them last week when they had Ganley on 5% or something, and to withhold them this week when they have him much higher gives Libertas a pretty justifiable excuse to moan about media bias.

We are all biased, obviously, in our own ways, but I think the Lisbon obsession in Leinster House has been reflected too much in the writings of my colleagues.

IF anything the SBP is anti lisbon? Its a former republican controlled paper? From my reading of it, it is not biased and very fair in its coverage. Its the only quality paper in Ireland on Sundays ( bar the Time the odd time, can be very hit and miss )

[FutureTaoiseach]

Tell me journo. Will the SBP at least acknowledge the swing to Ganley? Your info is most encouraging. D-Day is in sight.

Digout, I don't know where you got that idea from - perhaps you only read Tom McGurk's columns? The editorial of the paper in Lisbon I was mildly pro voting yes

[journo]

You obviously haven't read their editorials on the issue. No, The SBP is an excellent newspaper. I'm not saying they ARE biased, just that this decision could be seen as biased. I actually think Pat Leahy and Niamh Connolly are two of the best political journalists in the country.

[wombat]

I actually think Pat Leahy and Niamh Connolly are two of the best political journalists in the country.

So which of them are you?

[journo]

Yes they will FT, but won't give the numbers, but I'm told 16% with a massive MOE of about 6% because of the sample size. Ganley's own people have been trying to push some internal research showing him on 23% and heading the poll with massive support in Galway, but no newsdesk has bitten yet because nobody (me included) thinks its credible. Mind you, the SBP figures make it just a little bit more possible.

[Rebelman]

You obviously haven't read their editorials on the issue. No, The SBP is an excellent newspaper. I'm not saying they ARE biased, just that this decision could be seen as biased. I actually think Pat Leahy and Niamh Connolly are two of the best political journalists in the country.

seconded and Richard Colwell and his team are easily the best pollsters around, which makes for a winning combination.