Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[mccafferty cat]

The last five RedC polls for FG have been 30, 31, 33, 34, 34

What an interesting trend.

[theoutsider]

Actually there is good news for both of them with Ferris making advances in the south and Ganley in the North West in the European part of the results

Based on the two MRBI polls Ganley hasn't moved and Ferris is not going to win a seat so I can't see how that is good news for them

[evercloserunion]

I suspect that Ganley hasn't moved and the rise in Ind/Others comes from the increase in support for Joe Higgins in Dublin.

That would be consistent with the mrbi poll.

[inspired]

Garret Fitzgerald offered the opinion that RedC might be the more accurate at the moment as people would be more inclined to vote FF than actually admit it to a pollster.

On that basis the figures are FFing awful - almost as bad as MRBI/IT.

These figures are similar and within the moe of the times poll on Friday, when you exclude the MRBI/TNS adjustment. That's hardly surprising as both polls were taken on the same days. I think Dr Fitz was querying the IT adjustment which pulls FF down. I think he has a point.

As Pat Leahy says every month, the key is the trend and the trend now is FG mid 30s, FF low 20s, Lab high teens. The real political breakthrough of these elections will not be Labour's result, but FG beating FF by 5-10 points....that's historic!

[Rebelman]

Thats not true, nor would you want it to be true. They sample 1000 people each month, not the same 1,000 people. With that you get a margin of error of +-3%. If, for some reason that there was some systematic problem with the sample that you are picking, then tracking the same people would increase this problem. For this reason, and others, they use a randomly sampled sample (which, as far as I am aware is representative of the wider population).

I was of the belief that what red c did was what you said above but with a percentage being the same each time (a bit like TV Tam rating) if I'm wrong I'm sorry and I stand corrected but I was almost certain this was the case

[JollyRedGiant]

but FG beating FF by 5-10 points....that's historic!

FG could get 15%+ more than FF - FF are in meltdown territory and could suffer a major wipeout. they will not get transfer from anywhere - every voter will vote anti-FF/GP down the line.

[vid]

Rebelman was part of the Pro Lisbon campaign and is very reliable on results, so if he says Ganely made some progress then its true.

[Kf]

in terms of tracking over time red c are the best as in as far as possible they poll the same people each time, so they are a true tracking poll whereas MRBI although very scientific and with a larger sample size is made up of different punters each time so movement is not as easy to track, it is however an accurate moment in time picture whereas red c are the ones to llok at if we are trying to spot trends / surges.

Red C poll the same people all the time?

I never knew that. Surely though that those 1,000 people become less representative as they, I would imagine, spend more time thinking of who they wil vote for, reading about politics and policies and in general slow morph into unrepresentative political nerds.

[marmurr1916]

Rebelman was part of the Pro Lisbon campaign and is very reliable on results, so if he says Ganely made some progress then its true.

Well he could hardly fall back from the 2% (or was it 3%?) he got in the last Red C poll.

[Digout]

FG could get 15%+ more than FF - FF are in meltdown territory and could suffer a major wipeout. they will not get transfer from anywhere - every voter will vote anti-FF/GP down the line.

Lets hope so, its vital to remember, that if FF get the kicking they deserve that this is just part 1 of the battle. We have to continue until the party is disbanded and their corruption networks are decommissioned.