Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[kerrynorth]

Actually there is good news for both of them with Ferris making advances in the south and Ganley in the North West in the European part of the results

Can you flesh that out for us Rebelman?

[Rebelman]

I have beer and cider stockpiled for next weekend. Between all day counts Saturday and Sunday, as well as Ireland v Bulgaria, I am pulling a sickie on Monday. Next weekend is like the Olympics for political anoraks.

don't forget cork v Kerry in Killarney as well

[Informer]

Im just anxious to wipe the smug smiles of the face of FFers who have kept face by saying things like "wait till polling day" and the June 5th- 6th Poll is all that matters". Wille O Dea in particualr.

Who wants to take a punt. I say 50-70 Council Seats, 50 Borough/TC Seats, both bye elections and one Euro seat will be gone from them ?

[Informer]

don't forget cork v Kerry in Killarney as well

And Dublin v Meath.

Ultimate grudge matches !

[nephinman]

[QUOTE=Simbo67;1714852]The 21% support solid is very interesting actually. They seem to be stuck completely in that range now.

Its the grey FF core vote IMO.

[Simbo67]

Im just anxious to wipe the smug smiles of the face of FFers who have kept face by saying things like "wait till polling day" and the June 5th- 6th Poll is all that matters". Wille O Dea in particualr.

Who wants to take a punt. I say 50-70 Council Seats, 50 Borough/TC Seats, both bye elections and one Euro seat will be gone from them ?

On these numbers it would be more than 70 council seats gone.
The Dublin seat is a goner, maybe too the east seat.

[JollyRedGiant]

Actually there is good news for both of them with Ferris making advances in the south and Ganley in the North West in the European part of the results

I suspect that Ganley hasn't moved and the rise in Ind/Others comes from the increase in support for Joe Higgins in Dublin.

[cactusflower]

Part of it is public sector and part people on benefits, imo. They know they would do worse with FG.

[dotski_w_]

FF 21 -3. FG 34 nc Lab 18 nc SF 10 +3 Grn 4 -1 Ind 13 +1

I've run that though my spreadsheet and calculated transfers as best I can in each constituency, and by my reckoning that would come out somewhere in the region of

FG 62
FF 43
LP 33
SF 9
GP 2
Oth 17

Obviously that's big gains for SF and Inds over other polls, and there's another 3-4 seats where the shinners would be almost there, and if I've underestimated their transfers (which I already have as higher than before) they would do better. The large number of Inds might not of course be present in a GE - the present proliferation of them for the locals may make ppl more aware of them, but come the election of a parliament to choose a govt, that could change.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Are these just GE figures? Rebelman spill the beans on Ganley and the regions.