Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[mccafferty cat]

This is no slight or reflection on Dave who runs the site well

[FutureTaoiseach]

Too true. Plus people like Dan Boyle, Nessa Childers, Colm O'Gorman and people in the youth wings of Ogra, YFG, Labour Youth, Ogra SF, etc used to post often. Most of those have drifted away as the site's credibility went down the toilet. Now they post primarily if not exclusively on the other political sites. This site has a reputation for being nutter central.

Nessa Childers certainly posts here (greengoddess/greengoose). SF has quite a presence on the site too, as does FG. I have noticed a drift away of FFers, but that likely reflects the morale of their party in these times.

[skeptic]

dont write phelan off yet. he may just pull it out of the bag .

[YoungLiberal]

What do you want the man to do? A site that allows for anyone to post (as opposed to say academic message boards where membership is restricted) is always going to be susceptible to people like FT dribbling on about "elites", "quislings" and other such shíte.

[west'sawake]

A fair point. He does seem to have an extreme naivety about how politics works, and come to conclusions that people on the ground would know are unrealistic, to put it mildly. HBAP has years of direct experience managing campaigns, and I have decades of media experience. Maybe sometimes we forget that FT's source of knowledge is what he reads in papers and on this site.

That is arrogant presumption on your part Tommy and perhaps as naieve as Enda is in relation to Sinn Fein. Thankfully F.G has someone of Frank Flannery's nous to keep all of yez in the world of realpolitik and to stop you losing the run of yourselves.

I have read many of your posts and F.Ts and if humility is a sign of wisdom he leaves you and many others here stuck at the starting blocks, your snide cheap shots do no justice to your many fine analytical posts heretofore.

Who can forget how naieve the Political Establishment were re Lisbon I, all the polls before hand pointing to a Yes. When will you lot eat humble pie?

From one who has decades of campaign experience and a little media experience and who never ceases to be surprised.

[TommyO'Brien]

Nessa Childers certainly posts here (greengoddess/greengoose). SF has quite a presence on the site too, as does FG. I have noticed a drift away of FFers, but that likely reflects the morale of their party in these times.

You missed the point, FT. A year or two ago, a number quite senior people who were experienced and knew what they were talking about posted here. Now there are only 2 or 3 insiders left on this site, and even they are drifting away. It is now largely made up of kiddies on laptops who think watching Prime Time and reading a newspaper, as well as looking at something on you tube, qualifies them as knowledgeable. You can tell from their posts that they haven't a bulls notion about politics in reality. Frankly, from your posts for example I very much doubt if you have much political involvement or experience. HBAP does.

[west'sawake]

dont write phelan off yet. he may just pull it out of the bag .

Maybe but I think a lot of the older FFers who greatly admired Childers will vote for Nessa. Especially if they have become disillusioned with their natural political home.

[YoungLiberal]

That is arrogant presumption on your part Tommy and perhaps as naieve as Enda is in relation to Sinn Fein. Thankfully F.G has someone of Frank Flannery's nous to keep all of yez in the world of realpolitik and to stop you losing the run of yourselves.

I have read many of your posts and F.Ts and if humility is a sign of wisdom he leaves you and many others here stuck at the starting blocks, your snide cheap shots do no justice to your many fine analytical posts heretofore.

Who can forget how naieve the Political Establishment were re Lisbon I, all the polls before hand pointing to a Yes. When will you lot eat humble pie?

From one who has decades of campaign experience and a little media experience and who never ceases to be surprised.

Whether or not it's an arrogant assumption or not, I bet you it's right.

[Reality bites]

I can't believe ye are still talking up the mythical samples of the RedC poll that may or may not show Ganley or Ferris rising. Whether it did or did not, the samples are way way to small and ye are just using this factoid to bolster your own opinion of how you would like the race to go.
Further it flies in the face of what the IT poll of the Euro constits showed on Sat and even they arn't that reliable with a MOE of 4.5
So whatever conclusion you want to draw from the RedC it is refuted by what showed up in the MRBI.
For example MRBI has Childers on 21% so +or- 4.5% she is still way ahead of Phelan on 7% who could be on 11.5 but she would be on 16.5% in a worst case scenario so its safe to conclude that she is likely to take the seat.
IN North west on MRBI figures if you give ganley the beneift of the doubt and award him the MOE in his favour he is still no where near a seat and Harkin would be safe with transfers.
As regards South its all over the place with 3 candidates close together so impossible to call from the polls.

So give it a bloody rest and just wiat til Sunday

[FutureTaoiseach]

I can't believe ye are still talking up the mythical samples of the RedC poll that may or may not show Ganley or Ferris rising. Whether it did or did not, the samples are way way to small and ye are just using this factoid to bolster your own opinion of how you would like the race to go.
Further it flies in the face of what the IT poll of the Euro constits showed on Sat and even they arn't that reliable with a MOE of 4.5
So whatever conclusion you want to draw from the RedC it is refuted by what showed up in the MRBI.
For example MRBI has Childers on 21% so +or- 4.5% she is still way ahead of Phelan on 7% who could be on 11.5 but she would be on 16.5% in a worst case scenario so its safe to conclude that she is likely to take the seat.
IN North west on MRBI figures if you give ganley the beneift of the doubt and award him the MOE in his favour he is still no where near a seat and Harkin would be safe with transfers.
As regards South its all over the place with 3 candidates close together so impossible to call from the polls.

So give it a bloody rest and just wiat til Sunday

The context has to be understood. The Business Post released the regional-breakdowns when Ganley was on 5%. But they don't when he's on 16%. Obviously, political-bias is coming into it. It's about our ability to trust in the press as a check on our govt. When the press gets into bed with the political-elite, that role of a free press becomes undermined and damaged.