Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[Limerick Lad]

Libertas are at 4% nationally. That makes 40 out of 1000.

Assuming Simons is on 2% in Dublin, that's 4 out of 200.

Assuming O'Malley is on 4% in East, that's 8 out of 200.

That leaves 28 out of 200 for Ganley in North West, or 14%.

The electorate in North West (the 'population') for statistical purposes is approximately 750,000.

A sample size of 200 for an electorate of 750,000 has a margin of error of 6.93% according to this calculator:

Margin of Error Calculator

A sample size of 500 for an electorate of 750,000 has a margin of error of 4.38%.

As it was a nationwide poll wouldn't people in South have been asked if they supported Libertas too, despite Libertas deciding not to put forward a candidate in South leaving the field clear to Sinnott, wouldn't that reduce the percentage you are awarding Ganley in North West.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Well Marmurr my impression is that Ganley accounts for almost all of that 4% nationally, so I stand over 16% which is the stat journo gave me. He would be more in the know than us.

As it was a nationwide poll wouldn't people in South have been asked if they supported Libertas too, despite Libertas deciding not to put forward a candidate in South leaving the field clear to Sinnott, wouldn't that reduce the percentage you are awarding Ganley in North West.

No because Libertas were not included in the question for residents of South. I understand that unlike the last poll, the questions included the names of candidates so that rules out what you are saying.

[marmurr1916]

FT, all we can reliably state is what I've already said on the MRBI thread: Ganley is in with a chance, but may be very reliant on transfers.

It would be foolish of his opponents to write him off, they must operate on the assumption that he's at the higher end of the opinion poll possibilities.

Equally, it would be foolish of Ganley and his supporters to assume that his support is at the higher end of the opinion poll possibilities.

All sides need to continue campaigning hard until the very last minute, as they will anyway.

Speculating about whether or not there's an ongoing surge towards Ganley is pointless, given the actual poll results available.

If there has been, then obviously he'll be elected; if there hasn't, then he'll have to hope for generous transfers.

[Scribbler]

Anybody know if that is the end of the polls are there anymore before Friday?

[Arcadius]

... I stand over 16% which is the stat journo gave me. He would be more in the know than us.
...

He may know the headline numbers better than us, but did he have access to the poll internals and can he analyse them better than RedC?

If SBP/RedC are only willing to put their names on outlines of broad trends for the individual constituencies then it's pretty obvious that the poll can't support more granular conclusions.

[dotski_w_]

The first time poster who read an early edition of the Sunday Business Post and surmised a media conspiracy theory against Ganley without any published data.

Yes, and this has been pointed out to him and he continues to blather on that this person would be "better informed" than us.

Still, the truth has a left-wing bias, eh FT?

[FutureTaoiseach]

Yes, and this has been pointed out to him and he continues to blather on that this person would be "better informed" than us.

Still, the truth has a left-wing bias, eh FT?

He said he was told the Ganley figure was 16% but with a moe of 6%. He also predicted the article on Ganley's position on Irish neutrality by Pat Leahy in today's SBP, and that the reason for not publishing the raw-data was twofold: firstly the moe and secondly to claim credit for predicting the swing to Ganley should he win (and conversely not having egg on their faces should it go the other way). He pointed out to me though that he felt they should publish the figures since they did last time, and how bias might otherwise be inferred. He added though that the public are now so used to the anti-Ganley media-agenda that the neutrality issue probably won't have that much of an effect.

He also says that a senior FF staffer has bet €500 on 1 FF MEP being returned, that Harkin and Gallagher-Mooney are seriously worried about Ganley, and that all the main parties believe privately that Ganley is 16% and growing. Oh and behind the seens, FFers are describing Ryan as a "gonner".

[dotski_w_]

He said he was told the Ganley figure was 16% but with a moe of 6%.

And your basis for believing him is what, exactly?

[FutureTaoiseach]

And your basis for believing him is what, exactly?

Had the ring of truth on it. He made clear he wasn't a SBP journalist but I think he prob is with someone else and sounded like he mixed in those circles. He predicted the references to the swing to Ganley and Toireasa Ferris in today's SBP and the story on neutrality and Ganley, and the failure to release regional figures. And then the stories of views from within the camps.

[Tiernanator]

I think the SF leadership ( Adams and McG) don't talk enough on issues in the Republic.

I agree with you Sinn Féin needs to focus more on what affects the majority of Irish people and the majority of Irish people live in ROI. Sinn Féin did lead the anti-Lisbon Treaty campaign in my opinion. I think that this did them no harm among left voters. However I do think that we need more and more to focus on what is affecting our voters in ROI. It makes sense to me. We should also seek to work more closely with other parties of the left and make sure that at every level left policies are promoted.