Business Post/Red C Poll 31/05

[TommyO'Brien]

The transfer-argument on Ganley is exposed as a myth in this poll. He is not transfer-repellent to the people of NW, 2/3rds of whom voted no.

You still don't get it.

Ganley may be a hero to you, but to a large chunk of No voters on the left he is detested as a right market free-marketeer close to the US whom they would prefer to gouge their eyes out with a rusty spoon than vote for. SF wants nothing to do with him. Ditto with other left wing voters.

To many in the middle ground who voted no, he is also someone they would not touch with a parge poll.

Even among the right he is a divisive figure, as shown in the sheer number of people who associated themselves with Libertas at the start of the elections in various countries and who then almost as quickly dumped Libertas. Even your beloved Klaus has made repeated attacks on him in the press.

May I add that privately, journo tells me Harkin and FF are 'very worried' about him

1) so your evidence is a first time poster?
2) They are worried that he might syphon off enough support to enable SF to win their seat. They are not afraid of him taking their seat.

and the parties believe his support is 16% and growing.

No they don't.

He's also performing spectacularly in Galway.

No he isn't, and given that he is the only candidate from there, he should be.

He is in fact the most transfer repellent candidate in the elections, by a long shot. Right wingers are more willing to transfer to Joe Higgins, a Trot, before him. Left wingers are more willing to vote for FF, FG and Labour than him. Yes voters don't want him to win, because they see him as a cynical hypocrite telling lies. Left wing No voters don't want him to win because they would prefer in Lisbon II not to have him about as they see him as the weakest link for the No side given his associations. Liberals don't want him to win because of his links with right wing Catholic groups. Conservative groups don't want him to win because they see Libertas links with pro-Euthanasia groups in Holland, and don't know what he real agenda is.

The fact that your are championing him here speaks volumes, given that you previously championing the PDs, followed by their meltdown, and FF, followed by their meltdown.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Okay just had a read of the frontpage of the Sunday Business Post and it confirms the story from journo. It states that "increases by....Libertas...suggest that they will challenge strongly". Also, the predicted smear on Libertas over Ganley's views on neutrality are there too with supposed support for a European army (which is probably just part of the anti-Ganley campaign). In any case, the other parties are in no position to lecture Libertas given Lucinda Creighton stated "we need a European army" before the last referendum and the Fine Gael "Beyond Neutrality" document. BTW, nationally, Libertas is now level with the Greens at 4%, which suggests if they ran in a General Election, they could be expected to get much of the old PD-vote. Food for thought if they win seats in the euros.

It appears from Pg 9 that it is Harkin's seat in danger from Ganley, while Liam Aylward surprisingly seems in danger in East:

..Liam Aylward is still in with a fighting chance for the third seat in the East constituency...Libertas support does appear to be on an upward trend...Almost all of this support is for the party's founder, Declan Ganley, who, based on the poll's constituency-figures, could yet be in with a shout to take a seat in the North West. This is a significant gain in two weeks and means he is a real threat to Gallagher, O'Reilly and Independent Marian Harkin...Harkin does remain in the running for a seat in the North West constituency, but could suffer at the hands of Libertas.

Also, the figures for the locals and the euros differentiate as follows:

FF: 20%
FG 32%
Labour 17%
SF 10%
Greens 4%
Ind 17%

Euros:
FF: 20%
FG: 34%
Labour: 14%
SF: 9%
Greens: 4%
Libertas: 4%
Ind 15%

The most surprising finding of the poll relates to SF. It concludes Toireasa Ferris is more likely to win a seat than MLM.

[kerrynorth]

RTE Radio News in their report on the SBP poll mentions that there has been a swing to both Declan Ganley and Toireasa Ferris. But no figures as stated by 'journo'. Journo was correct in what he posted here last night and you would have to take what he/she said as being credible.

That being the case then the SBP have Ganley on an unpublished 15%. Although it must also be acknowledged that this is on a very small sample.

[FutureTaoiseach]

RTE Radio News in their report on the SBP poll mentions that there has been a swing to both Declan Ganley and Toireasa Ferris. But no figures as stated by 'journo'. Journo was correct in what he posted here last night and you would have to take what he/she said as being credible.

That being the case then the SBP have Ganley on an unpublished 15%. Although it must also be acknowledged that this is on a very small sample.

Given the propensity of Radio 1 to susceptibility to govt pressure, particularly on the European issue, they deserve a certain respect for acknowledging that. One must but hope a fly in the ointment won't make itself felt between now and polling day though....

Those who rubbished the credibility of journo last night may now like to redeem themselves with a few words of contrition or acts of self-flaggelation.... (hbap)

[wombat]

RTE Radio News in their report on the SBP poll mentions that there has been a swing to both Declan Ganley and Toireasa Ferris. But no figures as stated by 'journo'. Journo was correct in what he posted here last night and you would have to take what he/she said as being credible.

Why are they reporting a rumour if they have no figures to back it. RTE have been running govt. propoganda since the start of the campaign - including a breathless announcement that Pizza Hut were to create 200 new jobs. They have obviously been instructed to talk up anti govt. candidates in some areas so that FF supporters will return to the fold. Newspapers are privately owned and can take whatever line they like but we pay for RTE.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Why are they reporting a rumour if they have no figures to back it. RTE have been running govt. propoganda since the start of the campaign - including a breathless announcement that Pizza Hut were to create 200 new jobs. They have obviously been instructed to talk up anti govt. candidates in some areas so that FF supporters will return to the fold. Newspapers are privately owned and can take whatever line they like but we pay for RTE.

It's not mere rumour. The Business Post front-page says Ganley and Toireasa Ferris "will challenge strongly" because of an increase in their support.

[Limerick Lad]

RTE Radio News in their report on the SBP poll mentions that there has been a swing to both Declan Ganley and Toireasa Ferris. But no figures as stated by 'journo'. Journo was correct in what he posted here last night and you would have to take what he/she said as being credible.

That being the case then the SBP have Ganley on an unpublished 15%. Although it must also be acknowledged that this is on a very small sample.

Where are you getting the figure of 15% support for Ganley if it is unpublished.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Where are you getting the figure of 15% support for Ganley if it is unpublished.

Journo says its 16%.

[Limerick Lad]

Journo says its 16%.

The first time poster who read an early edition of the Sunday Business Post and surmised a media conspiracy theory against Ganley without any published data.

[marmurr1916]

Libertas are at 4% nationally. That makes 40 out of 1000.

Assuming Simons is on 2% in Dublin, that's 5 out of 250.

Assuming O'Malley is on 4% in East, that's 10 out of 250.

That leaves 25 out of 250 for Ganley in North West, or 10%.

The electorate in North West (the 'population') for statistical purposes is approximately 750,000.

A sample size of 250 for an electorate of 750,000 has a margin of error of 6.2% according to this calculator:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

A sample size of 500 for an electorate of 750,000 has a margin of error of 4.38%.

With 9% as a 'base' figure for the TNS-MRBI poll, the possibilities for Ganley are:

4.62% (minimum), 9%, 13.38% (maximum)

With 16% as a 'base' figure (let's assume journo is correct) for the Red C poll, the possibilities for Ganley are:

9.8% (minimum), 16%, 22.2% (maximum)

The average for Ganley across these two polls is 12.5% (assuming the 16% figure to be correct).