The source (journo) says he's on 16% there.
Not quite. A poster suddenly appeared on this thread making these claims, having never posted before. For all we know, the poster could be a Libertas sock-puppet, just like the posters who have popped up here in the last week claiming that Marian Harkin is a closet FFer.
It wouldn't be the first time this week that we had a Libertas w*nkfest on p.ie over Ganley's supposedly soaring poll-figures, as you and Kerrynorth well know.
I have engaged the poster in further discussion on the specifics, and that leads me to hold firm to the view that he is a credible source. In particular, he claims the newspaper will acknowledge a swing to Libertas but not the scale of it. Furthermore, he states that the Post will carry an article on Ganley's attitude to neutrality tomorrow. That adds to the poster's credibility imho.
Opinion Polls Blog
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I cannot see why the Post would not publish details of a Ganley surge if it was comfortable with the findings. It would be a scoop for the paper if he won and would suggest that its polling is more accurate the I Times. I suspect their problem is that the sample size is so small, at best 250 and possibly less, that there is a huge margin of error.
The Post's GE tracking poll numbers are within the moe of being identical to the I Times' non adjusted figures from Friday. The Times' N/W poll was based on 500 people and a ballot paper. I suspect that the Post might have a high Ganley figure, but thinks it is a questionable given the small sample size and the variance from the I Times' figure for Ganley.
So ease up on the conspiracy theories.