Sen Paschal DOnohoe still hot favourite for Dublin Central!

[Supermanpolitician]

I read a couple of crazy articles during the week from the usual lazy journalists inclduing Sam Smyth and others.
Dublin Central By-Election - FF the rank outsider as others jockey for position
But was just on the Paddy Power website.
Dublin Central - Irish By-elections Betting Odds from Paddy Power
Paschal is 8/13 and well ahead of others, who are 11/4.

Haven't been able to get a price from Celtic, but bookies are usually bang on.

[midlander12]

I think the failure of any of the left candidates of emerge ahead of the pack has helped Donoghue. None of them is particularly cross-party-friendly and Bacik is simply the wrong candidate for this constituency. However if it is decided by FF transfers I would be slow to predict the outcome. On the other hand, it is extraordinary to be even talking about a possible FG victory in this constituency. You have to go back to 1981-82 to see FG on more than 25% here, and even then they would not have won a by-election here (they lost badly in 83 though of course they were in govt and unpopular by then). It will be incredible if the left cannot win a by-election in this most working-class of constituencies at the height of the worst recession at least since the war.

[MacCoise]

Haven't been able to get a price from Celtic, but bookies are usually bang on.

Not sure about that, Lisbon?

I recall them being fairly wide of the mark in ter,s of specific constituencies as well. i think it's his to lose having said that

[Kev408]

My God!! I work there and live about 200 yards from central but I never heard of him. Who is he?

[JCSkinner]

Ahern is toast. If FF voters don't come out, it's Donohue's seat. If they do come out, it'll come down to transfers.
Bacik should do well from Sullivan and Burke. The question is whether she's too radical for the Drummer mafia to transfer to.

[Kev408]

I genuinely never heard of the bloke. Not one person at any door has mentioned his name. I mustn't be doing my job right (seriously). Oh maybe it's because I canvass in both areas - I really am not sure.

[AlanOB]

I don't think it's lazy journalism at all. I think the bookies have got it wrong for once.

As someone else said, DC is a working class constituency. There are a number of lefty candidates who will attract votes and their transfers will favour the leading lefty (Bacik or O'Sullivan).

I agree with the article that it will therefore come down to FF transfers, and they are not going to transfer to Donohue (who will be the poll topper). I reckon O'Sullivan will receive more FF transfers than Bacik.

[KBK]

The bookies got it totally wrong on lisbon and thet have it totally wrong here.This seat is going left.Burke or OSullivan.Just because INM want to see him win and are plugging him the whole time doesnt mean that hes going to win.Hes a complete nerd.All you have to do is listen to him for a few minutes and you will see what i mean.He may resonate with pockets in phibsboro and the navan road but thats it.

[alexo]

It will go left, but bacik will not get it.

[Paddylekker]

The bookies got it totally wrong on lisbon and thet have it totally wrong here

Do you understand how prices work in bookies?

The odds being offered by bookies are not a reflection of what chance the bookie thinks a certain event has of coming to pass. The prices are a reflection of what people are putting their money on. All the bookie does is balance his book and build in his, rather generous, edge.

Paschal Donohoe is favourite because he has had the most money staked on him winning. Irish political betting markets aren't liquid at local and constituency level so it wouldn't take much money to have him odds-on.

The bookies don't want Paschal to win. They prefer long shots to come home.