Dublin Central and Dublin South Election Statistics (Maps)

[grassroots]

Looking at the table below the maps - for which much thanks to Casualbets - there's only one DED in Dublin Central in the >50% category - Phoenix Park (only 152 votes) - which makes for "noisy" data. We can make broad conclusions about the difference between the first two categories (<30%- and 30%-50%) though.

How many are on the register in the Phoenix Park. I can think of at least two. Does Leo Delion & Tony Detiger have a vote. Probably vote FF as well.

[Casualbets]

Apologies... omitted the Dublin South Support Map last week... here it is now...

[Casualbets]

With FF gettomg over 45% of first preferences in DC in 2007, why are pundits writing off their chances in the byelection?

A. Because of FF`s appalling national ratings
B. Because Government parties tend to do badly in by-elections irregardless of how well they're doing nationally.
C. Even if Ahern does top the poll, he'll receive pretty few transfers and will be overtaken.

[Casualbets]

....plus quite a lot of negativity about Bacik being from outside the constituency, her views on abortion, etc (remember Central is a heavily conservative constituency - it had the highest No divorce vote in the referendum!).

I think that her role in the "Campaign Against the Racist Referendum" Group during the Citizenship Referendum will actually hurt her more... I can't remember what the Yes vote was in Dub Cent, but it must have been about 75%...

[Casualbets]

If Sunday’s poll had Sinn Fein on Dublin central on 3% and Fine Gael on 28% - all that means is there is something wrong with the poll, one such figure would be interesting to have two such totally out of whack results means has to be a poll problem. I think we must weight for an MRBI poll, if there is to be one before anything can be said.

Sorry, but where was the sunday Poll? was it a Sindo Phonepoll?? If so, disregard...

[liamfoley]

Here's the same for Dublin South...





and here's a map sahowing the proportion of Managerial/Professional workers by DED



Legend

Lt Red >60%
Dk Red 50-60%
Green 40-50%
Dk Blue 30-40%
Lt Blue <30%

Has anyone else remarked on the shocking differences in professional/managerial differences in these constituencies and how this affects the outcome? This may be more relevant to the local elections, how many rate payers, are going to on the council?