PaddyPower -3/1 Fine Gael to win both by-election seats

[Anorakphobia]

Dunno about that, I put down an original bet at those odds and gave out because the limit (85 for PD) was too low, limit for Ivana was in excess of 200.

Paddy Power refunded Chelsea supporters who had bets last night because they "were robbed" But hey the "cos who I am thing" totally works for me, but I don't that's it.

Ha ha,

Be careful, you may have to declare that in your schedule of interests!
"unspecified incremental value offerred by bookmaker in exchange for occassional references"

It could bring you down when facing a dail ethics committee some time in the future.
On second thoughts......


Political betting is fantastic.
I absolutely cleaned up on 1997 UK GE.
But getting almost impossible now to get a large bet on anything.

Cant see Mara and the FF election team getting stuck into FF this time around like they did in 2007.

[Decko]

Bear in mind that Jeremiah McVeigh polled a massive 59% in 1918 in this constituency.
I mention this because it is as relevant as election 2007. Times have changed. Boy have they changed. And it's mid-term.

he is from Down south not Dublin south

[KingKane]

I wonder if PP will open a book on local authority seats total per party. You know FG (320-340) FF (140-160) that sort of thing. Not including town councils, just city and county councillors.

I was thinking of opening one on betfair once all the nominations are closed.

[badboy2]

What odds would you get on FF polling lower in Ireland than New Labour poll on June 4 in Engerland.

Who is more hated Cowen or Bown?

Funnily enough last week Pascal was everyones tip to win in central and Alex White was tipped in South. Funny the way the media try and hype things.

I think the media are keen to down play a potential FG double. If it comes off Kenny is Taoiseach in waiting.

[Queenshar]

Hi guys,

Great mix of opinions on Dublin Central. It's a very tricky one to get right. The limits are a little low online right now as we are basically shooting in the dark, having no polls, or concrete info to go on. These will hopefully be boosted up over time, the closer we get to the by elections, however, if you ring our freephone number 1800 721 821, there is a good chance our risk/trading department will lay you that bit more.

To those of you who availed of our 3/1 odds on the FG double - best of luck - whatever the outcome, DC certainly looks like a good battle!

Sharon (PP)

[CorkHurler]

11/8 Bacik must be one of the worst examples of mis-pricing in an election of all time, I would happily lay 10,000- 5,000. She wont even be in the first 3.

[meriwether2]

Hi guys,

Great mix of opinions on Dublin Central. It's a very tricky one to get right. The limits are a little low online right now as we are basically shooting in the dark, having no polls, or concrete info to go on. These will hopefully be boosted up over time, the closer we get to the by elections, however, if you ring our freephone number 1800 721 821, there is a good chance our risk/trading department will lay you that bit more.

To those of you who availed of our 3/1 odds on the FG double - best of luck - whatever the outcome, DC certainly looks like a good battle!

Sharon (PP)

Employ me and Ill sort the odds for you.

I'll also do jumps and GAA, and group 1's on the flat.
No rest of flat, and certainly no all-weather.

There's the terms and conditions. Take it or leave it.

[hiding behind a poster]

Will you lay me then ?
will do any size

I beg your pardon?

[Anorakphobia]

Hi guys,

Great mix of opinions on Dublin Central. It's a very tricky one to get right. The limits are a little low online right now as we are basically shooting in the dark, having no polls, or concrete info to go on. These will hopefully be boosted up over time, the closer we get to the by elections, however, if you ring our freephone number 1800 721 821, there is a good chance our risk/trading department will lay you that bit more.

To those of you who availed of our 3/1 odds on the FG double - best of luck - whatever the outcome, DC certainly looks like a good battle!

Sharon (PP)

Sharon,

What price will your risk/trading department quote FG to win both by elections and win at least 5 Euros?

Thanks
Anorak (Punter)

[hiding behind a poster]

Would you offer me evens on that ?

Said it before, and will say it again, PoD is being talked up in DC nore in hope than expectation.

He has to turn 10% of a vote into 45% of a vote, in a notoriously left leaning, parochial, unbelievably clientelist constituency, which hasn't even had much FG support at council level in recent years, never mind at Dáil level

Think about it before ye keep talking him up lads... Bertie will get 30% for the Brudder in here.. SF will get 10 at least, up to 15 I'd say if it's Christy Burke, Gregorys woman, possibly 12-15 as well, Labour another 15. that's between 70-75 % already.

If O Donoghue wins it.. well fair play to him. I just cant see it

Donohue (not "O'Donoghue" - come on, lads!) doesn't need 45% to win. Basically this election will be won by the last-standing non-FF candidate. Sounds obvious, but play it out. Suppose De Brudder gets 30% - that means 65-70% for the rest - namely Donohue, O'Sullivan, the SF candidate, and Bacik. Each of those candidates has a particular appeal to a segment of the constituency, but each also has weaknesses that stops them being far out ahead of the other anti-FF candidates. Bacik has the fact that Labour are strong there in her favour, but against that she's the wrong kind of Labour candidate - plus, Donohue has a major head-start over her in terms of the younger, middle-class vote that she would also target. Donohue has the fact that he's very well-established now, and appeals to the "Bertie" section of the FF vote - the ones who aren't really FF, but Bertie made voting FF acceptable to them. Against that, there simply isn't a large FG voter base to start from. O'Sullivan has the Gregory factor, but his vote was so personal, that without the same name, just just won't have the same connection. Plus she has to fight off the Shinners. And the Shinners don't even have a candidate yet, so are way off the pace - but against that, if they choose right, they'll eat into the Gregory vote.

So, its quite plausible that those four candidates will be somewhere either side of 15% - and being in the lead from there is crucial. And while its easy to say "Donohue won't get transfers from SF, or O'Sullivan" etc, because he will get some. And of those four candidates, he probably has the most distinct voter group to appeal to, so should be able to get his first-preference vote above 20% - after all, he's been campaigning more or less non-stop since 2007, FG are up nationally, and he was first into the field. In that scenario he's ahead of everyone bar De Brudder, and what he needs then is for Bacik to be eliminated LAST. Then he wins. Its quite possible.