PaddyPower -3/1 Fine Gael to win both by-election seats

[QuizMaster]

Lee at 1/7 is still free money.
They'll probably stop taking bets on him.

[baldur0300]

But Lee will have 50%+. It will all be over in one count.
Put your shirt on him while he's still 1/2.

Do you actually believe that could happen?! That hasn't happened since Brian Cowen's bye-election. DS is no Laois Offaly.

[Paddylekker]

Do you actually believe that could happen?! That hasn't happened since Brian Cowen's bye-election. DS is no Laois Offaly.

50 per cent for FG in Dublin South?

Of course it could happen. It, DSE, Mayo and DL should be the strongest FG constituencies in the country.

If you accept that they could be around 35 per cent nationally then you have to accept that they'll get close to 50 in their strongest constituencies - especially in a by-election.

[meriwether2]

G-dawg is 1/2 in DS. Was yesterday anyway.

Means Paschal is between 5-2 and 11/4.

I suppose people have to ask themselves: does PD have between a 26.6% and 28.6% chance of getting elected?

If he does, thats value. If not, no.

Previous calcs way off.

if G is 1/2, PD is about 6/4 - 13/8.

[David Cochrane]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=arial]Dublin Central By-Election

11/8 Ivana Bacik (Lab)
11/8 Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
5/2 Paschal Donohoe (FG)
6/1 Maurice Ahern (FF)
10/1 Sinn Fein Candidate
33/1 David Geary (Green)
100/1 Malachy Steenson (Workers)
[/FONT][/COLOR]

[meriwether2]

Right, if George Lee is 1/7, a euro on him nets .14. add stake = 1.14.

if PD is doubled with this. 1.14 @ 5/2 = €2.85. Add stake of 1.14 = €3.99.
Deduct original €1 stake leaves you 2.99/1, or 3/1.

So PD is 5/2 in the double.

Value? Surely not.

[Iarmhi Gael]

Am on phone to Paddy Power.

Going up in 30 mins.

Donohue is 5/2.

[GordonGekko]

Lee is now 1/7

[baldur0300]

50 per cent for FG in Dublin South?

Of course it could happen. It, DSE, Mayo and DL should be the strongest FG constituencies in the country.

If you accept that they could be around 35 per cent nationally then you have to accept that they'll get close to 50 in their strongest constituencies - especially in a by-election.

But it hasn't been one of their strongest constituencies for decades and indeed in 2002 Shatter lost out and they were down to one. They tend to be in the running for two of the last three seats and the PD transfers in the last election went only in low numbers to FG. 50%+ on the first count won't happen.

[meriwether2]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=arial]Dublin Central By-Election

11/8 Ivana Bacik (Lab)
11/8 Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
5/2 Paschal Donohoe (FG)
6/1 Maurice Ahern (FF)
10/1 Sinn Fein Candidate
33/1 David Geary (Green)
100/1 Malachy Steenson (Workers)
[/FONT][/COLOR]

Couldn't back Bacik at 11/8.