PaddyPower -3/1 Fine Gael to win both by-election seats

[Anorakphobia]

Anorak may give us more than 6/1.

What sayeth you Anorak?

After already stating you think 6/1 is a bet?
13/2 is my price "Honest Anorak, The Punter's Pal"

[kerrynorth]

I am coming around more and more to Meri's logic. Bertie is going to put his back into this election, probably even more than for his own for a number of reasons. Not the least of which is that his stock in the party would sour on the back of a by-election victory in the present circumstances. I am also looking at where would the more conservative vote in FG's total go. Bacik? Forget it, devisive candidate. O'Sullivan? the conservative FG vote is coming from the other more affluent end of the constituency.

You know what? FF could yet pull this off.

[QuizMaster]

I am coming around more and more to Meri's logic. Bertie is going to put his back into this election, probably even more than for his own for a number of reasons. Not the least of which is that his stock in the party would sour on the back of a by-election victory in the present circumstances. I am also looking at where would the more conservative vote in FG's total go. Bacik? Forget it, devisive candidate. O'Sullivan? the conservative FG vote is coming from the other more affluent end of the constituency.

You know what? FF could yet pull this off.

Shut up you will you? You're too often right.

[odie1kanobe]

Here are the stats from the 2007 GE:

-FF 44%. Of this, Ahern got 37%.
-FG got 9%
-Labour got 13%
-Independents got 13% (Gregory).

FF vote will fall. It will fall due to the trend in the country. But of all places, here is where it will hold up the most.

I cannot see Bacik getting in. Im struggling to see Pachal bridge the gap. However, Jim Mitchell got 15% of the vote in 10097 when we last had a FG seat there.

Can Paschal get 20 and get in off transfers?

I see Ahern topping the poll. But I dont see transfers for him. FG or O'Sullivan will need transfers from Bacik and then one another to get over the line. Numerous, tight transfers.

Im struggling to see that happen.

As is probable there will be a lot of single not transferrable votes here which really mess things up so Real Quota as distinct from Electoral Calc may be as low as 45%.

[Queenshar]

I wonder if PP will open a book on local authority seats total per party. You know FG (320-340) FF (140-160) that sort of thing. Not including town councils, just city and county councillors.

I was thinking of opening one on betfair once all the nominations are closed.

We hope to look at this in the next 10-14 days. Will keep you posted if we do decide to offer betting

[pollyanna]

I think I'd like a double with Maureen O'Sullivan and Alex White. I think the transfers might do it for both of them.

I can see a lot of the FF vote going to O'Sullivan in Central and if White can stay ahead of Brennan the transfers could bring him over the line.

[Anorakphobia]

Sharon,

What price will your risk/trading department quote FG to win both by elections and win at least 5 Euros?

Thanks
Anorak (Punter)

Sharon, any luck on this?

[Anorakphobia]

Optimism on Maurice's chances seem to hinge on a belief that the people of DC unlike the nation as a whole still have massive faith in Bertie Ahern.
They don't and in fact many never did.
Also, stories about the Drumcondra mafia and the supposedly lethal electoral machine are bollix.
Ahern hasn't come within a rat's arse of 1st pref % of other FF leaders (Cowen and Lynch in particular) despite always being very covetous of nailing a big 1st pref.
If his electoral machine is so legendary how the hell couldn't they scare up even a thousand votes for Cyprian Brady despite pulling every dirty stroke in the book for him late on.
This crew are despised in many sections of this consituency and neither they nor Bertie himself will get Maurice even close.
In fact I predict Maurice wont even be ahead after 1st count.

[hiding behind a poster]

BUT FG's issue is that their canvassors will nearly all gravitate tio South, i.e. who wonuld not want to be associated with a popular winning candidate? Unless FG HQ direct bodies to Central they do not have the physical manpower to drag Senator Donohue over the line, halo or no halo.

FG always direct canvassers in these scenarios (multiple by-elections) - most recently in the double by-elections in 2005. Each constituency is assigned to one of other of the by-elections, and you're just not allowed go to the other one. Of course the difficulty this time is that FG's most active people (like those of all parties) will be busy with the local election campaigns in their own constituencies.

[worldatone]

FG always direct canvassers in these scenarios (multiple by-elections) - most recently in the double by-elections in 2005. Each constituency is assigned to one of other of the by-elections, and you're just not allowed go to the other one. Of course the difficulty this time is that FG's most active people (like those of all parties) will be busy with the local election campaigns in their own constituencies.

Agree .. Thats whats formally done but FG's organisational strenght is in South Dublin.. I'd be certain that FG membership north of the river is less than half that of southside.. wathc the FG machine run out of powee in 8 days time...

Locals tend to involve a core of activists / family members of the candidate, members main interests will be in the bye elections as its a chance to get one over on FF nationally.

What is significant is that FG have added to their local ticket in cabra, Harry McNab- meaning either they have polling which shows them picking up in the area or resulting in Donoghue getting access to votes he never received..

I don't think that will be enough to push him (Donogue) forward